Toyota's Direction...

[Pup]

Baby steps, X. Hybrids today, fully electric cars tomorrow. While I don't think Toyota's emphasis on hybrids needs any more explanation than that they are meeting a demand - irrational though it may be - I don't doubt that they think they are making a good investment for the future.

[xpensive]

I'm not certain that I agree Pup, there are still natural laws to take into account, such as how much electric energy you can store in a battery, don't have any numbers, but I know there is a natural limit to that and that said limit is pitifully low for a car other than a city spinner.

Remember that 60 liters of gasoline holds almost 600 kWh, when even if the engine's efficiency is only 25%, it's still 150 kWh net energy, meaning you can produce 100 Hp for two hours straight.

Imagine you fill those 60 liters in a minute, that means a power transfer equivalent of 36 MW!

Care to compare the above numbers with an electric vehicle including its charging limitations?

[horse]

Breakthroughs with battery tech are coming thick and fast. What about the:

Carbon Nanotube Lead Acid Battery

[Pup]

I'm not certain that I agree Pup, there are still natural laws to take into account, such as how much electric energy you can store in a battery, don't have any numbers, but I know there is a natural limit to that and that said limit is pitifully low for a car other than a city spinner.

Remember that 60 liters of gasoline holds almost 600 kWh, when even if the engine's efficiency is only 25%, it's still 150 kWh net energy, meaning you can produce 100 Hp for two hours straight.

Imagine you fill those 60 liters in a minute, that means a power transfer equivalent of 36 MW!

Care to compare the above numbers with an electric vehicle including its charging limitations?

All true, but ecobox early adoption will come first with city cars. Most US families have more than one car, and so range isn't necessarily the limiting factor. Plus what horse says about batteries. Baby steps.

[xpensive]

Even if the batteries capacity can be doubled or more, the range will always be totally inadequate in relation to the cost, just like KERS, other than for a Fisher-Price car going around downtown, but even driving 20 km to the mall will still take some planning.

And finally, the charging will always be a 6-12 hour xercise as you cannot have 300 Amp poles everywhere either.

For as long as you can buy a barrel of crude for less than 500 USD, fossil is king, or so I believe anyway.

[hollowBallistix]

Hydrogen fuel cell technology would be the way to go IMO

But...as long as there's crude oil in the ground then it will still be the fuel of choice

[Pup]

Even if the batteries capacity can be doubled or more, the range will always be totally inadequate in relation to the cost, just like KERS, other than for a Fisher-Price car going around downtown, but even driving 20 km to the mall will still take some planning.

And finally, the charging will always be a 6-12 hour xercise as you cannot have 300 Amp poles everywhere either.

For as long as you can buy a barrel of crude for less than 500 USD, fossil is king, or so I believe anyway.

I wouldn't take an electric car on the highway right now - but neither would I take a tinny diesel with narrow rock-hard tires. I like to have a modicum amount of control and security when I'm propelling myself down the road at highway speeds. Especially on US highways, where the soccer mom behind you on the cell phone with the screaming kiddies and the dog in her lap is in tenuous control of a Detroit city block on wheels.

But range is a matter of thresholds. The current range of a Nissan Leaf already exceeds what we would need for a second car. And the cost savings at today's prices approaches $100/mo. That's not chump change, and offers a payback over a similar diesel, like a VW Golf, of less than two years. It's a very fluid market right now, but the momentum is with electric and I think it will stay that way.

[xpensive]

Doubt it Pup, even if the batteries capacity can be ramped up, the cost of these including the understanding that ANY battery is basically a consumable, plus the unavoidable time to charge, will make the long-range implementation impossible I'm afraid.

But not to fear, I have faith in the market economy that when gas prices xceeds 10 USD per gallon, other solutions will step forward. Methanol from cellulose and synthetic fuel derived from coal with the good old Fischer-Tropsch method will keep our beloved ICE's running for many good years. Until we all can have our little Mr Fusion in the back.

[horse]

Coal gasification is certainly an economic alternative, but without carbon capture it's not really a goer (assuming carbon markets become more prevalent in the future). Carbon capture is better suited to large centralised plants where electricity is generated and the Co2 gas pumped below. So in the end, you are supplying fuel to cars with electricity anyway (or hydrogen with an additional conversion penalty).

Biofuels are fine in principle, but the pressure that they place on food markets has already been shown, for instance see Why Biofuels Help Push Up World Food Prices.

It's a tough challenge to see the future of the motorcar, but I think a transition from petrol to hybrid petrol to full electric (possibly electric hydrogen) seems quite likely given the trends that many large (and small) manufacturers are taking and given both the economic and environment problems that hydrocarbons bring.

Regarding $10 a gallon, I'm sure that is a good marker for the price of regular by the end of the decade.

[xpensive]

Biofuels are fine in principle, but the pressure that they place on food markets has already been shown, for instance see Why Biofuels Help Push Up World Food Prices.

Xactly why I advocate methanol from cellulose, as the world's demand for newsprint will continue to fall steeply, there will be a ample natural resources for this activity.

Regarding the CO2 myth, I believe it is just that, which will become rather obvious to everyone within the next couple of years. Just another scam to lure the western world to channel even more cash to hopeless third world countries in order to "reduce emissions".

Basically all of South Africa's diesel consumption is produced from coal, a natural resource of almost unlimited proportions. Xpensive? Hell yeah, compared to the price of gas in the US today, but as you said Horse, this will change radically very soon.

[horse]

Well, if you're right about CO2 then the move to electric might well be usurped by gasified coal, particularly once an infrastructure is in place.

I can't say I agree with you that C02 driven global warming is a myth, however.

Still, like all good businesses, I'm sure Toyota is happy to cover all the bases.

[donskar]

Full disclosure: I make a very nice living working for Toyota.

Toyota R&D budget is $1 million per hour, 24 X 365 -- and a lot of it goes to developing a variety of energy sources. They already have full electrics, hydrogen cell, and extremely clean, small diesels. And -- YES -- the US does NOT want diesels at this time: perception is that they are noisy, dirty, smelly, heavy, expensive, and underpowered (did I miss anything?) Oh, yes, and diesel fuel is much more expensive in the US than gasoline.

A Prius plug-in (with limited all-electric range) is just a few months away from the US, but infrastructure for plug-ins DOES NOT EXIST and will cost many BILLIONS of dollars to implement. And governments -- local, regional, state, and national -- are broke. They don't have enough money to fix potholes, never mind implement a vast plug-in infrastructure.

For the next few years at least, gas/electric hybrids are the practical answer for a one-car family or for a single, multi-use vehicle. Pure electrics, for the next few years, are likely to be limited to short- medium-range commuting.
Views expressed are mine and do not necessarily represent those of Toyota Motor Corp.

[hollowBallistix]

Full disclosure: I make a very nice living working for Toyota.

Toyota R&D budget is $1 million per hour, 24 X 365 -- and a lot of it goes to developing a variety of energy sources. They already have full electrics, hydrogen cell, and extremely clean, small diesels. And -- YES -- the US does NOT want diesels at this time: perception is that they are noisy, dirty, smelly, heavy, expensive, and underpowered (did I miss anything?) Oh, yes, and diesel fuel is much more expensive in the US than gasoline.

A Prius plug-in (with limited all-electric range) is just a few months away from the US, but infrastructure for plug-ins DOES NOT EXIST and will cost many BILLIONS of dollars to implement. And governments -- local, regional, state, and national -- are broke. They don't have enough money to fix potholes, never mind implement a vast plug-in infrastructure.

For the next few years at least, gas/electric hybrids are the practical answer for a one-car family or for a single, multi-use vehicle. Pure electrics, for the next few years, are likely to be limited to short- medium-range commuting.
Views expressed are mine and do not necessarily represent those of Toyota Motor Corp.

So what is the price between a gallon of petrol versus diesel then ? you say it much more expensive, but from reports i've seen it's on average only $0.50 more per gallon.

The perception in the US is that they are dirty, underpowered and noisy, but this is simple not the case anymore, but quite frankly diesels are being used in Europe, and diesels now offer more performance and mpg when compared the a petrol equivelent.

Toyota however haven't got the best diesel or petrol engines, other manufacturers have cars that offer more performance & more milage for the same amount of money, and the cars their advertising at the moment are they Hybrid range of cars that they have coming out soon, the new Auris, Prius & Yaris, but these cars offer no benefits, they will have a high initial cost, poor residuals, and there will be cars that are cleaner, cheaper to run & maintain, it just doesn't make sense in European market.

[donskar]

Full disclosure: I make a very nice living working for Toyota.

Toyota R&D budget is $1 million per hour, 24 X 365 -- and a lot of it goes to developing a variety of energy sources. They already have full electrics, hydrogen cell, and extremely clean, small diesels. And -- YES -- the US does NOT want diesels at this time: perception is that they are noisy, dirty, smelly, heavy, expensive, and underpowered (did I miss anything?) Oh, yes, and diesel fuel is much more expensive in the US than gasoline.

A Prius plug-in (with limited all-electric range) is just a few months away from the US, but infrastructure for plug-ins DOES NOT EXIST and will cost many BILLIONS of dollars to implement. And governments -- local, regional, state, and national -- are broke. They don't have enough money to fix potholes, never mind implement a vast plug-in infrastructure.

For the next few years at least, gas/electric hybrids are the practical answer for a one-car family or for a single, multi-use vehicle. Pure electrics, for the next few years, are likely to be limited to short- medium-range commuting.
Views expressed are mine and do not necessarily represent those of Toyota Motor Corp.

So what is the price between a gallon of petrol versus diesel then ? you say it much more expensive, but from reports i've seen it's on average only $0.50 more per gallon.

The perception in the US is that they are dirty, underpowered and noisy, but this is simple not the case anymore, but quite frankly diesels are being used in Europe, and diesels now offer more performance and mpg when compared the a petrol equivelent.

Toyota however haven't got the best diesel or petrol engines, other manufacturers have cars that offer more performance & more milage for the same amount of money, and the cars their advertising at the moment are they Hybrid range of cars that they have coming out soon, the new Auris, Prius & Yaris, but these cars offer no benefits, they will have a high initial cost, poor residuals, and there will be cars that are cleaner, cheaper to run & maintain, it just doesn't make sense in European market.

Focus, please:
1) I said the perception of diesels was negative. Unfortunately, in the real world, perception is too often reality.
2) To many people, 50 cents per gallon is enough money to make a difference. Maybe you should think in terms of $5 - $10 per tankful?
3) Your statement:

the new Auris, Prius & Yaris, but these cars offer no benefits, they will have a high initial cost, poor residuals, and there will be cars that are cleaner, cheaper to run & maintain, it just doesn't make sense in European market

is an unsupported rant and not worthy of response.
4) Did I claim somewhere in my post that Toyota DID have the best diesel or petrol engines? IMHO BMW and Honda make some of the best gasoline burners, with Audi, M-B and others building great diesels. But people do NOT buy engines. They buy cars and trucks. And when it comes to the entire package, Toyota does pretty well, thank you.

[hollowBallistix]

it's not an unsupported rant when clearly there are cars that out perform all of Toyota's models in the areas they are support to be a benefit to the consumer.

toyota residual prices are really poor, they are not exactly cheap to purchase & their one true selling point over the past couple of years that was crucial for them was the perception that they supply a quality product....and quite frankly they don't really. I know this because i've been to their manufacturing sites, i know & understand their systems, and again while they preach quality they don't strictly follow their own methodology.

when there are cars available that can out perform a toyota hybrid by 20mpg, and diesel cars that can out perform their equivalent petrol counterpart by an mpg ratio of 2:1, how is diesel then more expensive when your using half as much ?