Silly Season 2018/2019

[AJI]

If anything, Monaco has merely highlighted how dominant and precise Dan can be in a good car. He doesn't throw it away under pressure like Max does.

Monaco just increased his value ... again.

Oh, I'm in 100% agreement about RIC's current value, but Herr Marko and I don't often see eye to eye...

[Fulcrum]

I'm beginning to think he'll stick at Red Bull.

Of the (good) options that might be available, I don't get the impression Mercedes are hiring. Hamilton will be retained for as long as he wants to continue driving, and as long as Mercedes is in the sport. Remember, Hamilton has never driven an F1 car not powered by Mercedes. Mercedes will retain Bottas from year-to-year, much like Ferrari are doing with Raikkonen, until they know they need to find a Hamilton replacement.

Ferrari - I also don't think so. Ferrari works better running a monopoly setup for one driver, Vettel is that driver. I consider it no coincidence there has been a rush of gushing praise for Leclerc - it wouldn't surprise me if Ferrari were promoting some of this coverage in preparation for advancing Leclerc to the 2nd Ferrari seat - even though I think a placement at Haas in 2019 is more likely.

Within Red Bull, the risk factors are known and unknown. The known being Max Verstappen, the unknown being the engine competitiveness for next year.

Dan knows how fast Max is, he knows Vettel's pace relatively well too. He doesn't know how he would fair against Hamilton in a Mercedes. I think he's been more than just competitive relative to Max over an extended period of time. Moving away from Red Bull would (imo) be a minor admission of perceived inferiority.

With respect to the engine, Red Bull will know very shortly (Canada) what there relative competitiveness will be like for the next 18 months - if the engine rumours are to be believed.

In addition, Ricciardo appears to enjoy being in Red Bull, and Red Bull appreciate him as well. I think a lot of it will revolve around remuneration. If Red Bull make an appropriate financial offer, they will retain Ricciardo.

[graham.reeds]

If red bull move to honda then RIC will be off... but where?

[AJI]

If red bull move to honda then RIC will be off... but where?

Well, this is the $64,000 question.

Mercedes to partner HAM. The main problem there is Mercedes don't want to upset their #1 driver. BOT is very well behaved, they're not going to get that out of RIC

or

Ferrari to 'partner' VET. There's history there, but maybe Ferrari don't care about that? Who knows, maybe they even want VET's head to explode?

or

Renault... Clear #1 status with a works team. Their performance improves every year and if they continue on the current trajectory they will be the clear #4 team by the end of 2018 and possibly an RB challenger in 2019.

IMO, staying at RB is a hiding to nowhere. Max is clearly their man of the future and needs #1 status to be able to perform to the level they expect. GAS is an obvious replacement for Dan.

[Webber2011]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Dan's going absolutely no where.

There must come a point when they are all just waiting for the Honda update to get serious about where everyone's going in the future.

I honestly reckon he will stay at Red Bull, but with some very serious "equality clauses" in his contract as well.

[Manoah2u]

Well it's a pickle, to be honest.

Danny indeed just showed his value, like a boss. Unfortunately Max has made it hard on himself now.
There is something to say about where this could be heading though.

Despite that i'm rather confident RB has / had (!) their bets with Max, and his growth potential, fact is, Danny is a lot more mature, consistant and briging in points and possibilities,
whereas Max is far from mature, and instead of maturing/growing, from time to time looks more like he's either not moving forward at all. He has been far too reckless this year.

With that, letting DannyRic go, is a risk. After all - if RB has a WDC and WCC capable car next year (IF) and Danny is not there, but they have to rely on Max and Gasly (for example),
and Gasly is still very inexperienced and Max is too reckless, then that pairing might cost them a lot.

So perhaps they have to reconcider and offer DannyRic a number 1 status, and Max a number 2. Hell, Max could , if he makes some more reckless mistakes, actually get replaced by Sainz if he's not carefull.

Thing is though, as for Danny, i think it's more about what the car will do. I'm confident he's had it with being in a car that can't get him a win on pure merit, so if Merc or Ferrari offers that, he's out i'd say. And quite frankly, Renault doesn't seem to get them an engine like that period. As for Honda - i'm very dubious if they'll ever hand that out to them. Honda and RB are almost neighbours, it sure would work fine as a relationship, but what does it improve if the actual engine is exactly the same as the Renault in the end?

So will RB actually go with Honda? What will happen with Aston Martin itself? 2021 is still 'far' away. I am actually anticipating the Renault contract will be continued untill 2021 and then they'll use AstonMartin engines.

Which then means, DannyRic is not gonna stay with RB because well, it's gonna bring zero difference.

And then we are back to square one; Merc or Ferrari. And as more members here deduct; Mercedes doesn't seem to be really 'hiring' and even then, chances are rather big that they wouldn't actually go for Danny if they were. Instead, Ferrari is open for 2019 and Raikkonnen is on the cutting block. There are news reports that he might actually go to WRD (Rally) next year. There's not only a definate spot, it seems like it's even being 'panned out'. 100% Guaranteed LeClerc is not going to Ferrari next year no matter what.
Max has a air and watertight contract with RB and surely can't leave, and i'm sure Ferrari doesn't want him at this exact moment for that spot.
Worst case for Max, RB kicks out Hartley and Max gets demoted ala Kvyat, and Sainz will get his ride.

Whatever happens, this is going to be a pivotal year. Lots of changes coming up.

[alexx_88]

I personally don't see it with Aston Martin, unless the new engine formula is over-simplified. Don't see AM as being capable of coming into the sport as a new engine manufacturer and compete with the established big OEMs like Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault. I doubt they'll have the budget and resources to do so. Honda proved as much. From this, I'd say that a lot of what Danny does in 2019 will/should be based on what happens with RB's engine supply. If they stick with Renault, then the law of diminishing returns says the top 3-4 teams will get closer and closer in terms of engine and focus will move back to aero and mechanical. Both areas where RB excels. So, for his sake, Danny shouldn't continue with RB unless they stick with Renault, at least until 2021. That should give him at least 1, hopefully 2 title challenging cars.

I put so much emphasis on RB simply because I don't believe there's a genuine free spot for him in any of the top 2 teams. We live in the age where you have a better chance of landing a drive with a top team at its peak if you're a 'very good' driver, rather than an exceptional one. The exceptional ones generally land a drive while the team is on its way up. Just look at who won the WDC in the past 9 years and when they were signed. Vettel was essentially raised by RB, while Hamilton and Rosberg signed for Mercedes long before they were a championship contender. Truth is, in today's F1, where consistency and drivers behaving is key to winning the WCC, no top team wants to risk their drivers battling with each other and wasting away points. If Ferrari end up signing Danny, it's because they see him as the man to lead them forward and, for some reason, are not happy with Vettel. Imo, Danny is a more consistent and less error-prone driver than Vettel, but the difference is minuscule and don't see Ferrari risking an all-out war with such a driver pairing. Mercedes showed it doesn't work.

The true wasted driver on the grid right now is Alonso. I genuinely think Vandoorne is a very good driver, but the issues with that Mclaren make him look very ordinary compared to Fred. Exactly what happened to Massa in 2012. Don't know if he'll ever get a chance to battle it out at least against a top team-mate, but I hope he will. He made a serious mistake when he left Ferrari in 2015 and, again, when he decided against joining Renault. Bar any miracles, I think Renault is his only chance to mount a title challenge before retiring from F1.

[FrukostScones]

I say HAM to Ferrari.
RIC to Merc.
ALO to Renault.

[Big Tea]

Thinking outside the box here, Red Bull would do well to GIVE Max to Ferrari or Mercedes FREE gratis, for 2 years.
For the next two years, he looses them more points than a good number 2 driver will bring RBR, and in two years time they decide if the have a developed driver.

[notsofast]

Vettel retires. Ricciardo to Ferrari. Perhaps Alonso to Red Bull.

[AJI]

Lewis pursues his music career after his 5th title
Seb becomes an anger management guru
Fernando simply gives up in frustration

[Ennis]

Lewis pursues his music career after his 5th title
Seb becomes an anger management guru
Fernando simply gives up in frustration

Seb becomes Fernando's anger management guru.

[dodds_turbo]

Lewis pursues his music career after his 5th title
Seb becomes an anger management guru
Fernando simply gives up in frustration

Seb becomes Fernando's anger management guru.

Lewis to become Dan Ric's manager/agent!

[Phil]

IMO - It's a fantasy to think Alonso is wanted outside of McLaren. Alonso is turning 37 this July - he's not a driver that is there to spend another 3 years of his career and grow with a team. This IMO pretty much excludes him from pretty much any of the manufacturer teams.

RedBull - not interested. They have Max on a longterm deal and historically have emphasized their own junior program. If for whatever reason Daniel Ricciardo can't be retained, they'll get back Sainz (who is still contracted to RedBull) to drive that second seat alongside Max.

Mercedes - not interested. Toto said himself that Mercedes are not looking at external drivers (in question about Daniel Ricciardo). This to me settles also the Ricciardo question. They are all out in making a deal with Hamilton with Bottas along side. Beyond either of those two, there's also Ocon, a Mercedes driver, who would be an interesting prospect. Even if for some reason, Hamilton decides to quit F1 by the end of the year, I still don't see Mercedes hiring a driver at 37 who is pretty much out of the sport with one leg anyway, as gifted as he may be.

Ferrari - are heavily invested into Vettel. My guess is that they too are not interested in Daniel Ricciardo. I could more likely see them retaining Kimi for one last year and then putting Leclerc into that second seat from 2020 on. Here too, I can't fathom why Ferrari would want Alonso.

Renault - I doubt it. Why would they want Alonso? They already have to extremely talented drivers who are both younger and more hungry than Alonso. Hungry as in, who still have a long career ahead of them. They are not quite up there with competing with the top3, so hiring a star driver like Alonso who probably wouldn't get much better results... why? They could have last year, but declined. Why would that change for 2019?

The sad thing is; Alonso isn't a threat to anyone. He's stuck at McLaren, who are not competitive. He's not taking away major points. The only place I see Alonso going, is out of F1.

[zeph]

IMO - It's a fantasy to think Alonso is wanted outside of McLaren. Alonso is turning 37 this July - he's not a driver that is there to spend another 3 years of his career and grow with a team. This IMO pretty much excludes him from pretty much any of the manufacturer teams.

.....................

The sad thing is; Alonso isn't a threat to anyone. He's stuck at McLaren, who are not competitive. He's not taking away major points. The only place I see Alonso going, is out of F1.

Yup, that is about the size of it. Shame, I'm a fan and will always remember him for ending the Schuey-era. But he made a mess of 2007, and has been conservative in his subsequent career choices. Can you imagine what would have happened if he had taken RBR's offer in 2008?