2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[MadMax]

So, back to one of the original comments I made on the early pages of this thread…
Is a small overspend worth the penalty?

Do you think we will see other teams trying similar in future years?

Is cheating worth the penalty? Yes, it appears so if it allows you to secure a championship or two.

Of course, timing your cheating is key - you get more bang for your cheating buck if you do it at the start of a new regulation set because you get a head start. Cheating in years 2, 3 or 4 will give you progressively less bang for your cheating buck because the teams naturally tend to close up over time.

BY doing it during the design/development phase of the new regulations, RBR have stolen a march on their competitors which might be very difficult to overcome.

Having said all of that, I wouldn't cheat. Everyone knows you cheated and everyone has an asterisk next your results even if the official result doesn't. Those of us with longer memories still consider that Schumacher cheated in his attempts to win titles, even if officially he is held up as one of the GOAT candidates.

[yamahasho]

Whats the penalty for a 2nd violation? $14mil fine and 20% reduction in aero, still doesn't matter, especially when they have .5sec advantage in any race.

[dans79]

Whats the penalty for a 2nd violation? $14mil fine and 20% reduction in aero, still doesn't matter, especially when they have .5sec advantage in any race.

I don't remember the rules saying anything about subsequent violations!

[LM10]

Max is the golden boy at the moment. The shining star of the future, fan magnet and marketing king. It’s a too good of a story for the FIA to intervene in such a way that RedBull would get in a position not to win any following titles. The way for it was paved last year at Abu Dhabi.

[dans79]

Max is the golden boy at the moment. The shining star of the future, fan magnet and marketing king. It’s a too good of a story for the FIA to intervene in such a way that RedBull would get in a position not to win any following titles. The way for it was paved last year at Abu Dhabi.

The FIA needs to be carful as other teams and drivers could decide to take things into their own hands.

[cplchanb]

10% reduction in development for a 0.37% overspend.

Fairly hefty

so more than enough to decide a championship, if we use Horners own words (200k?). but the report said they breached it by £1,864,000 (i.e., 1.6%). the 0.37% figure is what they would still be over if they had got the tax credits they didnt get.

considering that they are so far ahead of everyone else with this years car im sure this slight reduction wont hurt them too much... especially since everyone is fawning over their supposed demigod newey...

[Incognito]

I'm interested to know just what sort of impact the wind tunnel restriction will bring. In 2021, after Ferrari had finished 6th, Binotto and Wolff thought that the extra windtunnel time Ferrari would receive (slipping from 92.5% for 2nd up to 102.5% for 6th) would be worth 0.1-0.2 seconds per lap.

For 2022, we know that RBR will lose 7%, so 0.075-0.15 seconds per lap? Obviously it's not a direct correlation but it perhaps hints at what this might cost RBR in terms of performance.

So, the question becomes: Is a loss of one tenth per lap offset by the gain RBR built in last year. Binotto suggested Red Bull's cheating had gained them the equivalent of c.10% of Ferrari's in season upgrade performance budget. Teams regularly speak of gain 1-2 tenths for small upgrades which suggests that this penalty is worth the loss of...a small upgrade package for a single race. And that loss will be backloaded so it'll only apply for RBR's last wind tunnel session and will only disadvantage them for the last few races of the season (by which time both championships tend to be decided).

I'm far from an expert here so very happy to be corrected but, like the financial penalty measured against the WCC prize money (and marketing), the proceeds from the cheating seem to more than compensate for the penalty. Like stealing £1m, being allowed to keep it, and then being fined £500k in order to deter you from doing it again.

[Incognito]

The FIA needs to be carful as other teams and drivers could decide to take things into their own hands.

Leclerc should just floor it as soon as the formation lap is completed this weekend. By the time the lights go out he'll be 30 seconds up the road (which might even be enough to beat the 'Roid Bulls). What are the FIA going to do? He can claim he accidentally pressed the accelerator rather than the brake and, worst case, apparently they'll just fine him $50 and impose a 5 second penalty.

[napoleon1981]

Tough luck for RB. Seems like nobody knows what they are doing with these new regulations, given the large swings in numbers caused by various line items. Basically they are forced to take this plea deal. Can't really risk fighting it, in a FIA stacked appeal process.

[yamahasho]

You mean good luck for Red Bull, racing history has shown the first team to find an edge guarantee's at least 1 championship.

The FIA penalty doesn't deter the other teams, if you recall the olympics false start penalized the entire field but then they changed it where the racer is disqualified immediately. The FIA should implement something similar and this whole cap thing will no longer occur. Red Bull is in the drivers seat, if another team tries to copy, the FIA will probably come down hard on them, this is why this initial Red Bull penalty doesn't add up. The next team will either get the same penalty or complete disqualification. They should of disqualified Red Bull.

Edit to add: It's essentially a penalty to every other team, Red Bull keeps the advantage and other teams don't get to copy it. Red Bull is the clear winner here. All the FIA can do is some how change the 2023-24 regulations to lessen any advantage for Red Bull, but they won't do that, so it sucks for everyone else.

[dans79]

The FIA needs to be carful as other teams and drivers could decide to take things into their own hands.

Leclerc should just floor it as soon as the formation lap is completed this weekend. By the time the lights go out he'll be 30 seconds up the road (which might even be enough to beat the 'Roid Bulls). What are the FIA going to do? He can claim he accidentally pressed the accelerator rather than the brake and, worst case, apparently they'll just fine him $50 and impose a 5 second penalty.

lol, drivers and teams can be a lot more nuanced than that.

• Having one driver block very aggressively to dealy another
• intentionally extending a driver to hinder another
• Blocking during qualifying
• releases thats hinder another car (driver not on the limiter)
• waiting for the last possible instance to get over for blue flags
• driver pulling over in a spot that causes a vsc instead of pulling off in a spot that would cause no stoppage
• driver pulling over in a spot that cause a safety car instead of a vsc, or no
• driver pulling over in a spot that cause a red flag instead of a safety car
• teams asking for clarification about every change the team makes

Drivers/teams can getaway will all of the above with no penalty, and it's not an exhaustive list, Imagine if they want to play dirty!

[chrisc90]

Out of interests… what updates have we seen that have brought 0.2 second in lap time?

[dxpetrov]

The FIA acknowledges that had RBR applied the correct treatment within its Full Year Reporting
Documentation of RBR’s Notional Tax Credit within its 2021 submission of a value of £1,431,348, it would
have been considered by the Cost Cap Administration to be in compliance with Article 4.1(b) of the
Regulations and therefore RBR’s Relevant Costs for the 2021 Reporting Period would have in fact
exceeded the 2021 Cost Cap by £432,652 (0.37%).

Agreed. As you so definitively point out, they did cheat, but only by the £432,652. It's c.10% of the total upgrade budget of Ferrari, so c.10% extra of the performance gain compared to their rivals. The sort of performance gain chemical doping dreams of being able to provide.

And the case is closed. I believe there's no right of appeal for anyone other than RBR and, by admitting to their cheating, they've waived that right.

Not bad in return for 3 Championships. I wonder how much windtunnel time McLaren would be willing to give up in order to win 3 Championships? Or Alpine? Or the others? Got to be worth a handful of %, right?

I did wonder last night whether RBR might be compelled to gift each team the sum that they had overspent by and that the FIA would waive that sum being spent on cost cap items. It would level the playing field somewhat, particularly for the teams that don't have the financing to reach the cost cap anyway.

Where exactly did you read that their development budget was 10% bigger than Ferrari? For the case of argument, it could have been even smaller!

[TimW]

I think the haters here are greatly underestimating the impact of the reduction in wind tunnel time. The statement by other teams that RB will keep benefiting from the advantage they gained are nonsense. Other teams copy and develop, if you stand still you will quickly be overtaken. Also e.g. Vs Mercedes they will have 63 vs 80% tunnel time. That is a big difference.

The bad thing is however that this will only really affect them in 2024. This year they had their normal tunnel time. So the penalty has a big delay in its effect.

[mendis]

Whats the penalty for a 2nd violation? $14mil fine and 20% reduction in aero, still doesn't matter, especially when they have .5sec advantage in any race.

Worth an attempt!