Wynters wrote: ↑11 Aug 2020, 00:41
Looking at the three lead cars there are a few interesting things that come out. Not much that wasn't apparent though so this will be more of a commentary than a strict analysis.
Verstappen did well off the start, holding the gap to the next Mercedes better than pretty much all season (
1.451 here,
1.549 last weekend,
2.879 in Styria and
2.047 in Austria). For the first four laps, the Mercedes are pushing and racing ach other. They add half a second to their lead over Verstappen each lap, business as usual, basically.
But, tail end of lap 4, Hamilton begins to ease off and this is where it becomes apparent that Mercedes have got a fight on their hands (reminder, they areon the Medium whilst Verstappen is on the Hard). For the next seven laps, Verstappen takes time out of both Mercedes, even Bottas in clear air. Over those seven laps, he takes an average of
0.236 seconds out of Bottas (and slightly more out of Hamilton). It's not clear whether Bottas is holding Hamilton up (the gap hovers at just over a second but that might just be both Mercedes being tyre limited at this point).
It's in the middle of this seven lap 'reel in' that Mercedes start, not just losing time to Verstappen, but going slower than the lap before. This, of course, impacts Verstappen (Hamilton slowing, slows Verstappen in turn). Mercedes pit Bottas on 13 (he's a second a lap slower than he was on lap 4).
Hamilton pits the next lap, staying out losing him about 3/10ths on Bottas, and this free Verstappen who proves that his slow pace was due to being held up but immediately slipping from
mid-32s to
high 31s. The four laps after Hamilton pits (laps 16-19) Verstappen averages
1:31.816. Compared to the Mercedes' laps 2-5 pace of
1:31.79... Yes, lighter fuel but Mercedes were pushing each other and on much better tyres at that stage.
This is a good time to push, because that's what the Mercs are doing on their New Hard tyres. Bottas comes out hot and averages a
1:31.285 whilst Hamilton eases into his stint a little more (.5 slower on his out lap) and average
1:31.515. I suspect this premature push is where Bottas loses second to Hamilton, although it won't become clear for a while. I suspect that the extra heat he pumps into the tyres here hurts his pace and cripples his stint length.
And then it becomes clear that Mercedes don't have a fight on their hands. They've already lost. The next eights laps for the two Mercedes drivers are a
1:32.197 (VB) and a
1:32.476 (LH) average. Verstappen's eight laps?
1:31.455.
Race. Won. I'm pretty sure Hamilton is already thinking about trying to beat Bottas at this point. Midway through that stint, once it's obvious Verstappen has this, he eases off, really cooling the tyres, then handles them slightly more gently than Bottas.
Verstappen pits for New Mediums on lap 27. Bottas pushes hard. Hamilton pushes a little. Verstappen gets Bottas immediately, despite a slow stop (and would have got him easily, despite what Bottas said in the interviews afterwards).
Then both Verstappen and Bottas pit on lap 32. I think Verstappen pitting caught Mercedes by surprise here. Certainly, it didn't look like Verstappen was running the pace of such a short stint. But, if we remember how quickly the Used Mediums of the Mercedes went off, maybe this was about as fast a stint as could be safely run. I'd lvoe to know if anyone has radio or onboard of Verstappen's in lap? I've a suspicion that he dived into the pits, catching Mercedes by surprise.
Over the next eleven laps, Verstappen stretches his lead to a comfortable 5 seconds (and goes on, increasing it until he wins).
Meanwhile, in the other Mercedes, Bottas is taking 2/10ths out of Hamilton each lap but Hamilton's 26 lap stint is actually slightly faster than Bottas 18 lap stint (LH started one lap later). Hamilton pits (it's a slow stop, costing him 1.2 seconds on Bottas), comes out, sets his fastest lap of the race (a
1:28.451 on lap 43). Bottas has been doing
1:30.6s for a few laps and this sudden injection of pace clearly comes as a surprise. It takes him until the next lap to respond, doing his own fastest lap of the race (a
1:29.765 on lap 44). He can't maintain it though, and as his pace lifts into the
1:30s Hamilton dips in and out of the
1:28s.
Lap 46, a bored Verstappen, clearly not worried about a safety car, puts in his fastest lap, a
1:29.465. On the same lap, Albon puts in his fastest (a
1:29.477, on tyres 2 laps older). This, to me, suggests that Verstappen has more pace in hand and that his next two laps are
1:29.5s suggests that he didn't take everything out of the tyres that he could have. This is actually the only point I can see where I think Verstappen could have improved this race. With seven laps to go and with Hamilton on much fresher tyres, this is a bit of a gamble. A safety car with a DAS-equipped Mercedes right behind you on tyres 1/3rd the age of yours...it feels like an unnecessary risk. To be fair, Verstappen clearly had some more in reserve but I wish he'd waited until lap 50 or 51.
The last couple of laps, everyone eases off (especially the Mercedes).
- - - - - -
Matt Trumpets raised the interesting scenario that Red Bull screwed Albon. Matt thinks that Albon could've been battling with Bottas for 3rd at the end. I'm not sure I entirely agree with him (although I see where he is coming from) but what is absolutely clear is that calling him early was a terrible mistake. By the time he and Norris make their second stops, his early pit has gained him... 0.036 seconds and locked him into a two-stop strategy.
Where as, if he'd just stayed out, the midfield would have parted like the Red Sea and he'd have ended up second, with Bottas just behind him when Stroll pitted on lap 18. From there, he could've pitted at a reasonable time for a one-stopper (let's also say around lap 18, under- or over-cutting Stroll. Then, assuming he could match Leclerc's pace in an awful Ferrari, he's close to Hamilton when Hamilton comes out of the pits for his final stint and would probably see Bottas cruising over the finish line just in front of him (Bottas gave up ten seconds on the last three laps so I don't think Albon has a chance of actually battling him).
I also don't think Red Bull had confidence in the one-stop, or they wouldn't have wasted 21 seconds pitting Verstappen so he could do six laps on a pair of Mediums. But, with hindsight, this is a case where rolling the dice hurt Red Bull and it also suggests that even Red Bull didn't have a complete handle on how the tyres were going to work.
. They thought this the best time to get rid of the yellows.
