2016 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, Thu 26 – Sun 29 May

[Sevach]

Ferrari looks like they have to worry about STR rather than Red Bull.

Mclaren's superchassis™ also not looking all that great so far.

[GoranF1]

Mclaren is sandbagging....

[Sevach]

Mclaren is sandbagging....

For the last 4 years

[turbof1]

Yea I think Merc always sandbag a bit until Q3 but even so I don't think they are holding back that much to have a .8 diff!

It does look like we'll have a genuine battle for the pole position between 2 teams (well, one car vs a team). I do not think Ferrari can compete here, but Ricciardo seems to be in position to make Mercedes more then just sweat.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Mercedes 2015
P2 1:17.192
Q3 1:15.098
-----------
Diff - 2.094

Ferrari 2015
P2 1:18.295
Q3 1:15.849
------------
Diff - 2.446

Red Bull 2015
P2 1:18.548
Q3 1:16.041
-----------
Diff - 2.507

--------------------------------------
Mercedes 2016
P2 1:15.213

Ferrari 2016
P2 1:16.040

Red Bull 2016
P2 1:14.607

This year, with US rubber and the track layout change, there is half a second improvement. Removing that advantage from the times, Red Bull at this stage, compared to last year, are around 3.5 seconds quicker !!! Whereas Mercedes is only 1.4 Seconds faster and Ferrari are 1.7 seconds faster!

[turbof1]

On the loose drain cover: Adam Cooper pointed out the same thing happened in 2010. Seems to be the exact same cover:
https://adamcooperf1.com/2010/05/21/dra ... los-wheel/

[Phil]

So Ricciardo did a 1m14.607s in FP2 - street circuit that is still very much evolving and guaranteed to get quicker as the weekend unfolds. According to Tobias Grüner the combination of ultra-soft and new pool chicane means a .55 second difference. If this data is correct; I am assuming last years pole time (Hamilton) on a 1m15.098s could be a potential 1m14.450 assuming identical car and conditions - in theory. At the same time, these years cars are quicker. Yes, also due to the new Pirellis, but there have also been improvements to the cars.

So I think the pole time will be around a 1m14.0xx - 1m14.3 (assuming no rain until QF). I think the Mercedes will be quicker than 1m14.607 (assuming Grüners take), but by how much - I'm not sure. Monaco is very short, so there is less improvement to be found vs the year before compared to a longer track where improvements will be larger. I think RedBull will be extremely close, if not quicker.

Between Hamilton and Rosberg, I think Hamilton has the edge. He was extremely quick last year and from what I've seen so far in FP, I think he might have the edge again if he is in the right mental state. I wouldn't be surprised though if somehow, RedBull nicks pole and pulls out another win out of its hat this race. If I were Rosberg and fail to beat Hamilton, a RedBull victory would be the best possible outcome for his WDC ambitions.

[f1316]

I'm quite certain we haven't seen a representative time from Ferrari in the second session - for one thing, Vettel was faster in P1 than either went in P2!

Still, can't be good for driver confidence and doesn't speak well to the balance of the car that so many mistakes were made (by both drivers).

[Nuvolari]

I did some back of the envelope calcs and here are my predictions for Monaco qualifying:

Mercedes: 1:13.2 - 1:13.4
Red Bull: 1:13.5 - 1:13.7 (PU upgrade lap time gain 0.2-0.3s included)
Ferrari: 1:14.0 - 1:14.2
McLaren: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Force India: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Torro Rosso: 1:15.3 - 1:15.5
Williams: 1:15.7 - 1:15.9

It will be very close between McLaren and Force India for Q3 spots. As much as I'd like it, there is no way McLaren are suddenly going to be fighting Ferrari.

I'm still sticking to my guns. I don't think Ferrari have much to worry about, apart from the Drinks Company and Silver Arrows.

[Sevach]

I'm quite certain we haven't seen a representative time from Ferrari in the second session - for one thing, Vettel was faster in P1 than either went in P2!

Still, can't be good for driver confidence and doesn't speak well to the balance of the car that so many mistakes were made (by both drivers).

That would be good... If not for the fact that in the last race Ferrari showed that they are kinda clueless on how to nail down the setup of this car.

[bhall II]

That would be good... If not for the fact that in the last race Ferrari showed that they are kinda clueless o̶n̶ ̶h̶o̶w̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶n̶a̶i̶l̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶t̶u̶p̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶c̶a̶r.

Agreed!

[Vasconia]

I did some back of the envelope calcs and here are my predictions for Monaco qualifying:

Mercedes: 1:13.2 - 1:13.4
Red Bull: 1:13.5 - 1:13.7 (PU upgrade lap time gain 0.2-0.3s included)
Ferrari: 1:14.0 - 1:14.2
McLaren: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Force India: 1:15.1 - 1:15.3
Torro Rosso: 1:15.3 - 1:15.5
Williams: 1:15.7 - 1:15.9

It will be very close between McLaren and Force India for Q3 spots. As much as I'd like it, there is no way McLaren are suddenly going to be fighting Ferrari.

I'm still sticking to my guns. I don't think Ferrari have much to worry about, apart from the Drinks Company and Silver Arrows.

Which is enough to destroy Ferrari´s dreams to be on the podium. Unless Vettel shows the hammer and makes a great lap.

And TR will be ahead of McLaren, for sure. So good battle between McLaren and FI for the last Q3 two positions . Too Little for the "super chasis".

[ripper]

I don't expect much more than a 5-6 th place for Ferrari in a incident free race

[Sonador]

Why is there such a big gap between Ricciardo and Verstappen?
Traffic?

I sadly missed the seccond free practice

[Phil]

Whatever it is, I don't think it's engine related. Top-speed of both Verstappen and Ricciardo are very similar...