Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[Just_a_fan]

It's worth bearing in mind that many vaccines have remarkably low effectiveness in terms of the % protected. We're used to the likes of measles vaccines giving almost complete protection (c.99% depending on info source), but flu vaccines generally only give c.50% protection.

In terms of the UK's vaccine response to Covid, all of the vaccines are being procured and many of in enough doses to give everyone in the UK each vaccine. SO if one is found to be less effective, further catch-up vaccine programmes can be implemented. Even if one vaccine is 75% effective and another is 90%, because both are being used, the overall effect will be to bring about a population protection. And that's the aim. No one is claiming that we'll end up with smallpox-like results with it being eradicated. It's about reducing severe symptom numbers to a low enough level that the health system can cope whilst also being able to offer the normal everyday health services.

The push in UK is to give as many as possible the first 'jab'. Although the resistance (if I can use that word) does not increase much the % of those who do get the virus (after 20 days) and are ill enough to be hospitalised is very low.

With the second 'jab' the number of infections is drastically reduced. It is being seen, sensibly in my opinion, as more important to stop many becoming serious than making some 'immune' (to a higher degree)

My parents are just getting their first shot now. Dad last week, Mum this week. Different vaccines - Dad had the AZOxford one ( I think), Mum is getting the Pfizer one. No idea why, just the way the names are being drawn out of the hat, I think.

Hopefully the whole thing will work out well and we can start to get around a bit. I haven't seen them for a year and it's likely to be a few more months yet.

[JordanMugen]

Calendar changes confirmed:

- Bahrain pre-season test
- 2 x Bahrain races
https://www.speedcafe.com/2021/02/05/co ... le-claims/

Curious stuff!

[Wouter]

Calendar changes confirmed:

- Bahrain pre-season test
- 2 x Bahrain races
https://www.speedcafe.com/2021/02/05/co ... le-claims/

Curious stuff!

Where do you read a confirmation? This is all based on assumptions.

The venue for the third round has not yet been confirmed, though is widely tipped to be Portimao in Portugal.

However, escalating instances of coronavirus in Portugal could see those plans change.

It’s been suggested that, should Portimao no longer be an option, Bahrain could host two events at the start of the year.

[adrianjordan]

It's worth bearing in mind that many vaccines have remarkably low effectiveness in terms of the % protected. We're used to the likes of measles vaccines giving almost complete protection (c.99% depending on info source), but flu vaccines generally only give c.50% protection.

In terms of the UK's vaccine response to Covid, all of the vaccines are being procured and many of in enough doses to give everyone in the UK each vaccine. SO if one is found to be less effective, further catch-up vaccine programmes can be implemented. Even if one vaccine is 75% effective and another is 90%, because both are being used, the overall effect will be to bring about a population protection. And that's the aim. No one is claiming that we'll end up with smallpox-like results with it being eradicated. It's about reducing severe symptom numbers to a low enough level that the health system can cope whilst also being able to offer the normal everyday health services.

The push in UK is to give as many as possible the first 'jab'. Although the resistance (if I can use that word) does not increase much the % of those who do get the virus (after 20 days) and are ill enough to be hospitalised is very low.

With the second 'jab' the number of infections is drastically reduced. It is being seen, sensibly in my opinion, as more important to stop many becoming serious than making some 'immune' (to a higher degree)

My parents are just getting their first shot now. Dad last week, Mum this week. Different vaccines - Dad had the AZOxford one ( I think), Mum is getting the Pfizer one. No idea why, just the way the names are being drawn out of the hat, I think.

Hopefully the whole thing will work out well and we can start to get around a bit. I haven't seen them for a year and it's likely to be a few more months yet.

Could be down to any pre-existing conditions they have and meds they are on. The cautions and interactions for the 2 vaccines are different because of the differences in how they are made and how they work.

Or could be luck of the draw.

[adrianjordan]

the UK has a 12 week gap between prime and booster vaccinations
so adding 3 months to the government's proclaimed schedule
(more than 3 months if the EU withholds the UK's vaccine from the UK)

the public infectivity rate will rocket as the youngers won't be prevented from resuming normal behaviour

so the olders (when vaccinated) will still be at severe risk as the AZOx vaccine is ineffective in olders
(according to the German vaccine committee and to a M. Macron - neither wants the AZOx vaccine)

The trial results were given in 3 age groups (something close to) under 20 - 20 to 55, - over 55. The results from all 3 group were pretty much identical, as were the numbers involved in the trial for that age group. It is all on ZOE and their own site

...demonstrated lower local and systemic reactions in older adults (≥56-69 years and ≥70 years) than younger adults (≥18-55 years) and generated similar robust immune responses against the SARS-CoV-2 virus across all adult age groups.


(link- https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... roups.html)

(This is THEIR OWN SITE, so check it complies with other findings. I have, it does but best check your selves)

Part of the reason for the lack of older test subjects was that those age groups were, largely, being told to shield or had underlying health conditions which meant that getting ethical approval would have been much harder and would have delayed the trial.

[adrianjordan]

It's worth bearing in mind that many vaccines have remarkably low effectiveness in terms of the % protected. We're used to the likes of measles vaccines giving almost complete protection (c.99% depending on info source), but flu vaccines generally only give c.50% protection.

In terms of the UK's vaccine response to Covid, all of the vaccines are being procured and many of in enough doses to give everyone in the UK each vaccine. SO if one is found to be less effective, further catch-up vaccine programmes can be implemented. Even if one vaccine is 75% effective and another is 90%, because both are being used, the overall effect will be to bring about a population protection. And that's the aim. No one is claiming that we'll end up with smallpox-like results with it being eradicated. It's about reducing severe symptom numbers to a low enough level that the health system can cope whilst also being able to offer the normal everyday health services.

The push in UK is to give as many as possible the first 'jab'. Although the resistance (if I can use that word) does not increase much the % of those who do get the virus (after 20 days) and are ill enough to be hospitalised is very low.

With the second 'jab' the number of infections is drastically reduced. It is being seen, sensibly in my opinion, as more important to stop many becoming serious than making some 'immune' (to a higher degree)

I'm sorry, that's just wrong. The first jab does give a significant level of immunity in all the vaccines being used in the UK. Yes the levels vary and it's too soon to have significant figures for the AZ one, but it DOES result in antibody production. With the AZ vaccine the second dose is more about prolonging that protection, though we still don't know how long immunity lasts for.

[adrianjordan]

the UK has a 12 week gap between prime and booster vaccinations
so adding 3 months to the government's proclaimed schedule
(more than 3 months if the EU withholds the UK's vaccine from the UK)

the public infectivity rate will rocket as the youngers won't be prevented from resuming normal behaviour

so the olders (when vaccinated) will still be at severe risk as the AZOx vaccine is ineffective in olders
(according to the German vaccine committee and to a M. Macron - neither wants the AZOx vaccine)

The thing is not that infections are stopped but that the symptoms of an infection become minor enough that hospitalisation is a very rare requirement. All of the lockdowns and restrictions aren't to stop infections per se so much as to reduce the load on health services. If Covid had been 100% infectious and 0% fatal, no one would be worried about it and it would be allowed to run rife through the population just as the common cold does.

Interesting side not from a conversation I was having with an ED Doctor the other day - thanks to social distancing and face masks etc etc, influenza rates in the UK this year are expected to be at a record low, with some talk that we could even see it being eradicated in some countries and the common cold is hardly circulating either!!

I always said it would be quite funny if the Covid vaccines had a side effect of wiping out the common cold - not likely to happen of course lol

[Just_a_fan]

The push in UK is to give as many as possible the first 'jab'. Although the resistance (if I can use that word) does not increase much the % of those who do get the virus (after 20 days) and are ill enough to be hospitalised is very low.

With the second 'jab' the number of infections is drastically reduced. It is being seen, sensibly in my opinion, as more important to stop many becoming serious than making some 'immune' (to a higher degree)

My parents are just getting their first shot now. Dad last week, Mum this week. Different vaccines - Dad had the AZOxford one ( I think), Mum is getting the Pfizer one. No idea why, just the way the names are being drawn out of the hat, I think.

Hopefully the whole thing will work out well and we can start to get around a bit. I haven't seen them for a year and it's likely to be a few more months yet.

Could be down to any pre-existing conditions they have and meds they are on. The cautions and interactions for the 2 vaccines are different because of the differences in how they are made and how they work.

Or could be luck of the draw.

Ah, yes, good point and one I hadn't considered.

[henry]

The ONS have updated their numbers on Long Covid with data up to the end of last year.

They confirm that their initial estimate, 10% of those infected and tested still had symptoms 12 weeks later, holds. The symptoms they tracked were, fatigue, cough, headache, myalgia and loss of taste and smell. The first 4 are likely to impact the ability to work.

At a more detailed level it seems females are a little more susceptible and the young, <15, and the old, >70, less so.

In the age range of F1 drivers, it looks like about a 1 in 8 chance that if you have a bad dose it will linger for 3 months or more. Maybe their fitness will improve the odds, but maybe not.

The data is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulatio ... idsymptoms

[Big Tea]

It's worth bearing in mind that many vaccines have remarkably low effectiveness in terms of the % protected. We're used to the likes of measles vaccines giving almost complete protection (c.99% depending on info source), but flu vaccines generally only give c.50% protection.

In terms of the UK's vaccine response to Covid, all of the vaccines are being procured and many of in enough doses to give everyone in the UK each vaccine. SO if one is found to be less effective, further catch-up vaccine programmes can be implemented. Even if one vaccine is 75% effective and another is 90%, because both are being used, the overall effect will be to bring about a population protection. And that's the aim. No one is claiming that we'll end up with smallpox-like results with it being eradicated. It's about reducing severe symptom numbers to a low enough level that the health system can cope whilst also being able to offer the normal everyday health services.

The push in UK is to give as many as possible the first 'jab'. Although the resistance (if I can use that word) does not increase much the % of those who do get the virus (after 20 days) and are ill enough to be hospitalised is very low.

With the second 'jab' the number of infections is drastically reduced. It is being seen, sensibly in my opinion, as more important to stop many becoming serious than making some 'immune' (to a higher degree)

I'm sorry, that's just wrong. The first jab does give a significant level of immunity in all the vaccines being used in the UK. Yes the levels vary and it's too soon to have significant figures for the AZ one, but it DOES result in antibody production. With the AZ vaccine the second dose is more about prolonging that protection, though we still don't know how long immunity lasts for.

I think you misunderstand my meaning as I did not state it correctly, I mean the intention of it is to stop people becoming ill enough to need hospitalization. I think I recall 30 something % with first 'jab' not sure.
Full protection does not come until the second 'jab' rather than no protection. *

BTW the full report of the Russian Vax Sputnik V is out now and it (surprisingly) looks to be one of, if not the best.
That Putin made a statement that it was ready after just a couple weeks of testing made people very wary of it but it looks good.
(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 8/fulltext)


Other good news is I get my jab today

*Apologies, it is 67%, far more than I thought

[adrianjordan]

So we got an update at work today, unfortunately can't link to it as it's on a secure NHS server, relating to Long Covid and it was saying that as many as 10% of people who contract Covid could go on to develop Long Covid and have lasting complications even amongst normally fit and healthy individuals.

Hopefully we won't, but it is not inconceivable that we could have a driver unable to return to the sport after contracting Covid.

[nzjrs]

So we got an update at work today, unfortunately can't link to it as it's on a secure NHS server, relating to Long Covid and it was saying that as many as 10% of people who contract Covid could go on to develop Long Covid and have lasting complications even amongst normally fit and healthy individuals.

Hopefully we won't, but it is not inconceivable that we could have a driver unable to return to the sport after contracting Covid.

I'm not disputing that long covid might turn out to be something unique. I do however wonder what will be left once the normal medium term effects associated with a severe respiratory illness are teased out over the next year's.

I also would like to know the base rate, or the intuition within the medical profession, what's the expected frequency of ME/CFS/MUS type illness in the general population.

[adrianjordan]

So we got an update at work today, unfortunately can't link to it as it's on a secure NHS server, relating to Long Covid and it was saying that as many as 10% of people who contract Covid could go on to develop Long Covid and have lasting complications even amongst normally fit and healthy individuals.

Hopefully we won't, but it is not inconceivable that we could have a driver unable to return to the sport after contracting Covid.

I'm not disputing that long covid might turn out to be something unique. I do however wonder what will be left once the normal medium term effects associated with a severe respiratory illness are teased out over the next year's.

I also would like to know the base rate, or the intuition within the medical profession, what's the expected frequency of ME/CFS/MUS type illness in the general population.

I think at present it is too soon to put numbers on those things. I expect post Covid damage to become a part of the umbrella condition COPD in the future.

There is still a lot we don't know about this virus and the effects it has.

[Ringleheim]

To answer the question posed in the thread title, yes, the 2021 season will be impacted by COVID.

The entire world, in all aspects, will be impacted by COVID this year.

Things won't get back to normal this year.

[adrianjordan]

To answer the question posed in the thread title, yes, the 2021 season will be impacted by COVID.

The entire world, in all aspects, will be impacted by COVID this year.

Things won't get back to normal this year.

Honestly, I don't think we'll even be fully back to normal in 2022 either.