2015 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, April 10-12

[efuloni]

I'm never really sure what we can read into things like this? Which part of the curve do you look to for the model, and why?!

Neither do I, but it looks to me that after 11 or 12 laps the Ferraris start being faster than the Mercedes.

[search]

Raikkonen's long run was on the harder compound of tires, so not sure what to read into that.

The race could get interesting if Ferrari can manage to to run two out of three stints on the softs though, with Mercedes probably going for soft/medium/medium. But to be able to do so, Ferrari probably needs to make it through qualifying by only using 3 out of their 4 sets (= into Q3 on a single set or doing the first run in Q3 on used softs)

[MarkedOne8]

By the by, a quick chart of long run laptimes and simple models for HAM, ROS, VET and RAI in FP2:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2ev0tJLEToM/V ... nModel.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-75ikm8PuUKs/V ... _loess.png

I'm never really sure what we can read into things like this? Which part of the curve do you look to for the model, and why?!

I really like the first chart. If I remember, ROS and RAI were doing race sims on Medium, then ROS switched for Soft. This chart and FP2 times tell me that Ferrari is slower on the pace but I think that they can mount quite a challenge with their better degradation.

[Manfer]

Looking at the time difference on each compound, i would expect front running teams to do a single run on soft for Q1 and retain the fresh set of mediums for the race. Atleast thats what i expect Ferrari to do, seeing the car is better suited to Mediums. Should be an interesting Q1 today.

[ME4ME]

Personally I'd go for Soft-Soft-Medium on sunday. For that to work, they'd probably would be best off using mediums in Q1, and then softs in Q2 (only 1 run) and Q3 (two runs).

[SectorOne]

S-S-M is my pick.

[dans79]

S-S-M is my pick.

I agree, the delta between the two compounds is 1.5-2 seconds depending on the team. I think that's to high to spend any more time than absolutely necessary on the primes.

[ChrisDanger]

By the by, a quick chart of long run laptimes and simple models for HAM, ROS, VET and RAI in FP2:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2ev0tJLEToM/V ... nModel.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-75ikm8PuUKs/V ... _loess.png

I'm never really sure what we can read into things like this? Which part of the curve do you look to for the model, and why?!

I really like the first chart...

The problem with linear trendlines though is you can't see sudden dropoff (Hamilton) or initial dropoff then stabilisation (Raikonnen). If you can indeed read that much into the data. In any case I wouldn't expect tyre degradation to be linear.

[PlatinumZealot]

Softs Medium Softs for the winner.

[SamH123]

By the by, a quick chart of long run laptimes and simple models for HAM, ROS, VET and RAI in FP2:
*snip*
I'm never really sure what we can read into things like this? Which part of the curve do you look to for the model, and why?!

I have been making FP2 plots for the races so far this year and posting them in the Autosport FPs thread
You can see them near the top of the page here:
http://forums.autosport.com/topic/19781 ... ead/page-5

I delete slower laps and replace them with the average of the laps before and after the deleted time

I think my charts are better for the layman as they give you an idea of what a race between the cars will look like but yours are interesting as well.

[evered7]

Doing two soft stints looks difficult from what has been seen now. Mercs losing shape of the softs after 11 laps and Medium might mostly do 15-20 laps (based on Rosberg times) ? That leaves another 20+ laps on the softs albeit on lower fuel. But will that be enough to prolong the life of the softs?

However looking at the length of the stint for Ferrari on medium (19 laps), I think they can very much run it farther than others and fully put the softs to use for extreme pace at the end of the race.

Edit: I didn't consider that Rosberg might actually be able to do more laps courtesy of lesser fuel after the first stint. How much more exactly is the question.

[psychemedia]

By the by, a quick chart of long run laptimes and simple models for HAM, ROS, VET and RAI in FP2:
*snip*
I'm never really sure what we can read into things like this? Which part of the curve do you look to for the model, and why?!

I have been making FP2 plots for the races so far this year and posting them in the Autosport FPs thread
You can see them near the top of the page here:
http://forums.autosport.com/topic/19781 ... ead/page-5

I delete slower laps and replace them with the average of the laps before and after the deleted time

I think my charts are better for the layman as they give you an idea of what a race between the cars will look like

Those are interesting - thanks... I was wondering about using rolling averages as well?

Do you have any code that describes exactly what process you used?

[atanatizante]

S-S-M is my pick.

I agree, the delta between the two compounds is 1.5-2 seconds depending on the team. I think that's to high to spend any more time than absolutely necessary on the primes.

On Sunday it'll be down to no more than 1-1,2 sec according to the recent history so the key to win the race it'll be to stay as short as possible on the medium tyre, so Ferrari could do a 2 stop OOP race ...
In Merc case they'll have to take into account at least 4 things :
1.The higher deg both on Lewis&Nico, either on soft or medium tyre, than Ferrari
2.Their race pace is higher than Ferrari on each compound
3.The threatening issue with the left front tyre - same as Barcelona -
4.Overtaking here is no issue
So they'll have to do a 3 stop OOOP with a very short stint on medium tyre.
This is the safer strategy and fortunately for them is the faster one to win the race.
But they could do even a 2 stop OOP race, but in this case they need at least one SC period and most important to be after their first pit stop ...

[dans79]

Edit: I didn't consider that Rosberg might actually be able to do more laps courtesy of lesser fuel after the first stint. How much more exactly is the question.

You also need to consider that we have no idea how much fuel they have on the car in FP, The state of the tires at the start of the stint, or how much the track/ set-up will evolve through FP3 & qualifying.

[psychemedia]

I have been making FP2 plots for the races so far this year and posting them in the Autosport FPs thread
You can see them near the top of the page here:
http://forums.autosport.com/topic/19781 ... ead/page-5

I delete slower laps and replace them with the average of the laps before and after the deleted time

Looking at those charts again, they remind me of a race history chart, eg as per https://intelligentf1.wordpress.com/the ... tf1-model/ ?