COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[izzy]

Helmut is working hard to get 1 or perhaps 2 races. It seems to depend on the local health authorities, but he sounds optimistic, basically discussing how to keep the F1 circus small and separate from the local community
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/aust ... e/4782786/

I'm thinking it's a bit odds on...

[saviour stivala]

Helmut is working hard to get 1 or perhaps 2 races. It seems to depend on the local health authorities, but he sounds optimistic, basically discussing how to keep the F1 circus small and separate from the local community
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/aust ... e/4782786/

I'm thinking it's a bit odds on...

Agree that the good doctor is working hard to get one or two races in his country and that he sounds optimistic. but I am also sure that like most others at his level he is worried sick about the real possibility of at least three of the present engine manufacturers/suppliers will do a 2018/2019 walk-out an masse as a result of the financial melt-down caused by this pandemic.

[izzy]

Agree that the good doctor is working hard to get one or two races in his country and that he sounds optimistic. but I am also sure that like most others at his level he is worried sick about the real possibility of at least three of the present engine manufacturers/suppliers will do a 2018/2019 walk-out an masse as a result of the financial melt-down caused by this pandemic.

but if they can get a race going it'll have the biggest audience ever!

The boards are all weirdly irrational about F1 aren't they, but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now, Ferrari aren't going anywhere and Mercedes are making masses of money out of it. It's only Renault i think and for me it's more likely they'll try and get Fred Vasseur than just walk away

But they do need races, so i think we will get some

[dave kumar]

...Back to our old bone of died OF Covid19 or died WITH Covid 19. It must be easy to dump anyone in the died of Covid 19 bucket when staff are so pushed.
(also for sosic2121)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 0april2020

Isn't this the best approach to estimating the impact of COVID-19 - compare the number of deaths in a given period to a baseline based on past years data? In the above graph published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS), you can see that deaths in week 15 (in the week ending April 10th), is 8,000 more (up from 10,000 to 18,0000) than the 5 year average. The total number of deaths isn't open to interpretation - at least if you believe in the integrity of the ONS.

And this from the BBC which explains that of the 8000 increase, only 6000 have been attributed to COVID-19 and there has been a jump in non-COVID-19 deaths for some as yet not understood reason.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. More than 6,200 were linked to coronavirus, a sixth of which were outside of hospital. But deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis, said they were trying to understand what had been happening with this increase in non-coronavirus deaths. He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital treatment - visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started.

So you can estimate there is an upper bound of 8000 and a lower bound of 6000 deaths from COVID-19 in the UK in the week up to 10 April.

[saviour stivala]

Agree that the good doctor is working hard to get one or two races in his country and that he sounds optimistic. but I am also sure that like most others at his level he is worried sick about the real possibility of at least three of the present engine manufacturers/suppliers will do a 2018/2019 walk-out an masse as a result of the financial melt-down caused by this pandemic.

but if they can get a race going it'll have the biggest audience ever!

The boards are all weirdly irrational about F1 aren't they, but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now, Ferrari aren't going anywhere and Mercedes are making masses of money out of it. It's only Renault i think and for me it's more likely they'll try and get Fred Vasseur than just walk away

But they do need races, so i think we will get some

All car makers including Mercedes had taken very big hits in sales and regardless how those involved in F1 are doing the hits they had taken will determine their participation in the sports.

[turbof1]

Agree that the good doctor is working hard to get one or two races in his country and that he sounds optimistic. but I am also sure that like most others at his level he is worried sick about the real possibility of at least three of the present engine manufacturers/suppliers will do a 2018/2019 walk-out an masse as a result of the financial melt-down caused by this pandemic.

but if they can get a race going it'll have the biggest audience ever!

The boards are all weirdly irrational about F1 aren't they, but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now, Ferrari aren't going anywhere and Mercedes are making masses of money out of it. It's only Renault i think and for me it's more likely they'll try and get Fred Vasseur than just walk away

But they do need races, so i think we will get some

All car makers including Mercedes had taken very big hits in sales and regardless how those involved in F1 are doing the hits they had taken will determine their participation in the sports.

The sport will have to ensure massive costs cuts happen; else Honda, Mercedes and Renault are at risk of leaving.

[izzy]

All car makers including Mercedes had taken very big hits in sales and regardless how those involved in F1 are doing the hits they had taken will determine their participation in the sports.

they won't sell cars by not promoting them tho. For Mercedes and Ferrari F1 is nearly free, because of the prize money and sponsorship. Renault and Honda will just have to do their sums and work out whether they can get better promotion if they spend their money some other way, but either way dropping sales doesn't mean spending less on promotion that is a death spiral. They have to take sales away from BMW and the others, with promotion, otherwise their whole business shrinks

and now F1 TV audiences will be enormous, it's an opportunity

[saviour stivala]

but if they can get a race going it'll have the biggest audience ever!

The boards are all weirdly irrational about F1 aren't they, but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now, Ferrari aren't going anywhere and Mercedes are making masses of money out of it. It's only Renault i think and for me it's more likely they'll try and get Fred Vasseur than just walk away

But they do need races, so i think we will get some

All car makers including Mercedes had taken very big hits in sales and regardless how those involved in F1 are doing the hits they had taken will determine their participation in the sports.

The sport will have to ensure massive costs cuts happen; else Honda, Mercedes and Renault are at risk of leaving.

The development of fully synthetic CO2 natural fuel alone will not only result in considerable cost reduction/saving but most importantly will eliminate the present formula one dependence on big engine manufacturers.

[Just_a_fan]

and now F1 TV audiences will be enormous, it's an opportunity

Except for those countries where F1TV isn't available thanks to other pay-to-view licensing arrangements, of course.

[izzy]

and now F1 TV audiences will be enormous, it's an opportunity

Except for those countries where F1TV isn't available thanks to other pay-to-view licensing arrangements, of course.

yes what a pity. tho Sky will get some more subscribers probably and everyone and their dogs will be clustered round, and there's Now TV isn't there

[Big Tea]

...Back to our old bone of died OF Covid19 or died WITH Covid 19. It must be easy to dump anyone in the died of Covid 19 bucket when staff are so pushed.
(also for sosic2121)

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ea3e38a6 ... ba0a76a75e
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 0april2020

Isn't this the best approach to estimating the impact of COVID-19 - compare the number of deaths in a given period to a baseline based on past years data? In the above graph published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS), you can see that deaths in week 15 (in the week ending April 10th), is 8,000 more (up from 10,000 to 18,0000) than the 5 year average. The total number of deaths isn't open to interpretation - at least if you believe in the integrity of the ONS.

And this from the BBC which explains that of the 8000 increase, only 6000 have been attributed to COVID-19 and there has been a jump in non-COVID-19 deaths for some as yet not understood reason.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. More than 6,200 were linked to coronavirus, a sixth of which were outside of hospital. But deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis, said they were trying to understand what had been happening with this increase in non-coronavirus deaths. He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital treatment - visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started.

So you can estimate there is an upper bound of 8000 and a lower bound of 6000 deaths from COVID-19 in the UK in the week up to 10 April.

It seems that many are due to not getting the same level of care as normal due to staff not only being off sick, but unable or reluctant to do things they usually would. It is just a personal belief, but based on my mother being in a care home for a year and a half, but I would think some just got 'fed up' and chucked the towel in due to boredom.
I could see a difference when coming back from holidays, and this was with my brother and sister calling almost daily and some very good very caring staff and 'visitors'. I know there is no way to estimate this, but anyone who has had a relative in one of these places will probably agree. (The staff are wonderful and I can not say enough good of them, so not griping, but they have limited time)

[nzjrs]

but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now,

Sunk cost fallacy, no?

[Just_a_fan]

and now F1 TV audiences will be enormous, it's an opportunity

Except for those countries where F1TV isn't available thanks to other pay-to-view licensing arrangements, of course.

yes what a pity. tho Sky will get some more subscribers probably and everyone and their dogs will be clustered round, and there's Now TV isn't there

Not convinced they'll get that many extra subscribers. Since Sky have had exclusive rights, UK viewing figures have plummeted. It's almost dead in the UK now. That's a travesty.

[izzy]

but Honda are just about to have it pay off it'd be a bit stupid to quit now,

Sunk cost fallacy, no?

well it depends what numbers they've got doesn't it. personally i think being an engine supplier is the worst way to do F1, but Red Bull have been making an effort to mention Honda all the time and not criticise them, and this year could be the first year Red Bull don't make out they've got a terrible engine disadvantage, and Max might win the wdc with it

so if they didn't quit before, when it was a nightmare, it'd probably be pretty silly to quit now. Tho they quit in 2008 so they can be silly! they sold the team for $1 that's now worth $1 Billion. But they'll have advertising equivalence figures and all that, so it's hard for us to know, but i don't see a reason for them to be leaving, as far as reason goes

[izzy]

Not convinced they'll get that many extra subscribers. Since Sky have had exclusive rights, UK viewing figures have plummeted. It's almost dead in the UK now. That's a travesty.

apparently the Sky audience in 2019 was 20.1 million, according to https://www.pitpass.com/66446/F1-loses- ... wers-in-UK

it might increase now everybody's been starved of all kinds of sport. Not saying pay-TV isn't a travesty as you say