Silly season 2016

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Schuttelberg
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Re: Silly season 2016

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gilgen wrote:
sigh. sometimes it surprises me as to the lack of actual f1 knowledge that is actually posted here! you just cannot assess a person on their points standing at mid season. kvyat has led ricciardo on a number of occasions and has then suffered from mechanical woes to a greater extent than ricciardo and has also had to accede to team orders. also, this is kvyats first year in red bull, and ricciardo also has more f1 experience. driver to driver, it is plain to see that kvyat is a cooler driver than ricciardo, and is less prone to mistakes. so his performance is far more meritous. without mechanical woes, kvyat would be ahead of ricciardo in points, but as i said, points do not tell the true story. as for ricciardo grinding vettel into the dirt? you might like to think that, but you are overlooking two points. vettel stated at the start of the season that he car was a turd. and also, rbr were aware in april last year that seb had signed for ferrari, and that is the reason why they were favouring ricciardo with the best tactics and taking various tactical gambles with vettel.
Now, I'm a Vettel fan, but this is as far away from the truth as possible.

First of all, it's very bold to say that a forum lacks knowledge. Very often, the human mind trains you to believe that your opinion is correct and while we might still respect another opinion, conviction never really allows us to actually believe that the other person/persons might be correct and might hold a point. I think there is a lot of excellent posters here and in general when I log off, I've learnt something.

You're correct in your stance that Kvyat hasn't exactly fallen by the wayside when pitched against Ricciardo this year, but frankly we need a larger sample size to exactly know who's consistently better. There's no question that Ricciardo has had more speed than Kvyat this year, but there's an 'urge' that's drawing mistakes out of him this year. It's very relative to the 'urge' Vettel suffered from last year. Simply put, Ricciardo was winning GP's and grabbing podiums last year and this year he's unable to do that because the car simply won't allow him to. This is very similar to Vettel in 2014. Vettel was so used to sticking it at the sharp end in qualifying and romping to wins in races that he simply couldn't handle a 'non championship winning capable car.' It can happen to the very very best. Instead of maximizing what you have, you tend to look for chances and at times unreasonable gambles to somehow put yourself back in positions you're used to. The only difference between Sebastian and Daniel is that amidst all the trouble, Daniel is still managing to overshadow Daniil.

Would Ricciardo/Kvyat be able to ground Vettel this year? I highly doubt it. Vettel clearly has his mojo back and generally, when he's in his good place he's quite invincible. I think Ricciardo would still run him close or perhaps even be his equal, but beating him this year looks tough. He's hands down been the best driver of the year.

To conclude, the three of them are in different situations, cars and circumstances this year. One is a proven champion, one aspiring to be one but a proven winner while Kvyat is still finding his feet in F1. In my opinion, we can go on and on about the IF'S and BUT's, but the only thing we know for certain is that Ricciardo was faster and better than Vettel in 2014 and that Vettel has been the class of the field in 2015. Ricciardo has had his moments as well as struggles in 2015, but he's not been able to smash Kvyat like it was expected. Still, of the two he's been the better and quicker driver.
"Sebastian there's very, you're a member of a very select few.. Stewart, Lauda, Piquet, Senna, Prost, Schumacher, Fangio.. VETTEL!"

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Phil
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Re: Silly season 2016

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I really really don't want to nitpick, but I [personally] think that it takes more to be "the class of the field" than simply looking at a very (IMO) confined picture/scenario. Vettel is IMO riding a bit on the Alonso effect (yeah, I just made that one up). Alonso too was always looked at, as 'the class of the field' - simply because he used to drag what seemed to be a dog of a car to podiums, even wins and nearly ride to a WDC title but by 3 points, while his team-mate barely scraped himself into the top 6, in fact, struggling to achieve even half the sum of points Alonso achieved *in.every.season*.

In fact, his team-mates compared so bad, it boggles the mind how long Ferrari held on to them.

2010: Alonso 252 / Massa 144
2011: Alonso 257 / Massa 118
2012: Alonso 278 / Massa 122
2013: Alonso 242 / Massa 112

One would think it couldn't get worse... yet, in 2014 when they employed Kimi, Alonso outscored him by nearly 3:1 (Alonso 161 / Kimi 55). Yes, I know Kimi struggled. But people seem to forget that Alonso wasn't too happy with that Ferrari either, driving around in the midfield. Perception is a very powerful thing and looking at these statistics, one could easily assume that Alonso must be some kind of messiah / god-like driver (assuming Massa was a WDC contender in 2008)... or, we simply must concede that Massa in a row of 4 seasons highly underperformed... and so did/is Kimi.

Not to take anything away from Alonso. I do think he is rightly considered to be one of the finest F1 drivers. My point is rather that a driver can do no wrong, when his team-mate is doing 10 times worse. Pair either driver up with another that is also at the top of his game, and [driving] mistakes are made, friction inside the team increases and we get to see how some of these drivers perform under stress. Hamilton and Alonso have been both in this situation when they were racing against each other in the same car in 2007. Hamilton has also a lot of tension right now with Rosberg not far from being his equal - simply look at 2014 to see how close things were, even if that first DNF in Melbourne and multiple QF issues exaggerated things. Hamilton has had a much calmer start to 2015 and it shows in signs that we perceive him as being more "mature", driving more focused and in more control. But if things don't turn out as they should, as they did in Hungary, and mistakes start to happen, just like last year too when under pressure.

Vettel has had some easy years from 2011 onwards and in 2014, he too was tested, which shows how many mistakes he can make too. 2015, Vettel has not been tested yet. Not against Kimi. And even if the odd occurrence does pop-up, I think he'll rise above it, also knowing how much he is loved by the team he drives for. Kimi is perhaps not the most social character outthere, love him for it. Ricciardo is much different, with his generally positive attitude, his smile.

Not to take anything away from Vettel too this year, he's driving very very good. But I'd look at his achievement (and the impressiveness) of it in context. He's not feeling much pressure. They [Ferrari] know they aren't really WDC contenders this year. Any race they can beat the Mercs is a great bonus, but for the most part, they want to finish behind them and the Williams aren't doing a great job of being formidable challengers.

Back to the topic; I think Ferrari should dump Kimi and go for the best that is available. If you have the best, they are not driving for other teams against you.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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Schuttelberg
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Re: Silly season 2016

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Phil wrote:I really really don't want to nitpick, but I [personally] think that it takes more to be "the class of the field" than simply looking at a very (IMO) confined picture/scenario. Vettel is IMO riding a bit on the Alonso effect (yeah, I just made that one up). Alonso too was always looked at, as 'the class of the field' - simply because he used to drag what seemed to be a dog of a car to podiums, even wins and nearly ride to a WDC title but by 3 points, while his team-mate barely scraped himself into the top 6, in fact, struggling to achieve even half the sum of points Alonso achieved *in.every.season*.

In fact, his team-mates compared so bad, it boggles the mind how long Ferrari held on to them.

2010: Alonso 252 / Massa 144
2011: Alonso 257 / Massa 118
2012: Alonso 278 / Massa 122
2013: Alonso 242 / Massa 112

One would think it couldn't get worse... yet, in 2014 when they employed Kimi, Alonso outscored him by nearly 3:1 (Alonso 161 / Kimi 55). Yes, I know Kimi struggled. But people seem to forget that Alonso wasn't too happy with that Ferrari either, driving around in the midfield. Perception is a very powerful thing and looking at these statistics, one could easily assume that Alonso must be some kind of messiah / god-like driver (assuming Massa was a WDC contender in 2008)... or, we simply must concede that Massa in a row of 4 seasons highly underperformed... and so did/is Kimi.

Not to take anything away from Alonso. I do think he is rightly considered to be one of the finest F1 drivers. My point is rather that a driver can do no wrong, when his team-mate is doing 10 times worse. Pair either driver up with another that is also at the top of his game, and [driving] mistakes are made, friction inside the team increases and we get to see how some of these drivers perform under stress. Hamilton and Alonso have been both in this situation when they were racing against each other in the same car in 2007. Hamilton has also a lot of tension right now with Rosberg not far from being his equal - simply look at 2014 to see how close things were, even if that first DNF in Melbourne and multiple QF issues exaggerated things. Hamilton has had a much calmer start to 2015 and it shows in signs that we perceive him as being more "mature", driving more focused and in more control. But if things don't turn out as they should, as they did in Hungary, and mistakes start to happen, just like last year too when under pressure.

Vettel has had some easy years from 2011 onwards and in 2014, he too was tested, which shows how many mistakes he can make too. 2015, Vettel has not been tested yet. Not against Kimi. And even if the odd occurrence does pop-up, I think he'll rise above it, also knowing how much he is loved by the team he drives for. Kimi is perhaps not the most social character outthere, love him for it. Ricciardo is much different, with his generally positive attitude, his smile.

Not to take anything away from Vettel too this year, he's driving very very good. But I'd look at his achievement (and the impressiveness) of it in context. He's not feeling much pressure. They [Ferrari] know they aren't really WDC contenders this year. Any race they can beat the Mercs is a great bonus, but for the most part, they want to finish behind them and the Williams aren't doing a great job of being formidable challengers.

Back to the topic; I think Ferrari should dump Kimi and go for the best that is available. If you have the best, they are not driving for other teams against you.
First off, I agree with mostly all the points you've made. When I say he's been the 'class of the field' I'm simply implying that he's the driver that's made the least mistakes. In effect, he's cost the team 2 points all year. Otherwise, it's a perfect year up to this point. I also agree with all the stuff about Alonso and his time at Ferrari. I'm quite certain Vettel hasn't been challenged this year, but he can only do the best job possible for himself, just like Alonso in previous years. I don't believe in 'he out-performed the car' logic, because that doesn't exist. You can only drive the machine you have and if the machine has had enough at 299 kmph, no driver in the world can take it to 300. But, a brilliant driver can consistently drive at 299. What we refer to as 'the limit.'

If I were Ferrari boss, I'd try get Ricciardo for Raikkonen. If that's not possible then Hulenberg. However, I'm almost sure Raikkonen will be retained, if not Bottas will step in. So, either way I'm not getting my wish.

I'd just like to differ with you on one point- You emphasize that Vettel isn't feeling the pressure much. In my opinion, and I strongly believe this- The more pressure you put on him, the better he delivers. He's just doing the best job possible at the moment and having followed him closely, I am absolutely sure that somewhere within he's sniffing a championship challenge. By that, I don't mean to sound outlandish. He's going to be realistic about it, but I am certain that he fosters immense self belief that he will capitalize even if there is a 1% chance. And, it does look like he has a 1% chance.
"Sebastian there's very, you're a member of a very select few.. Stewart, Lauda, Piquet, Senna, Prost, Schumacher, Fangio.. VETTEL!"

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Phil
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Re: Silly season 2016

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I dont disagree. Let me clarify what i meant with pressure though:

A driver is ever as good or bad, relative to his team mate. If a former world championship comes 4th while his team mate comes 10th, it will be looked as "the best possible result" - because that's all we can quantify. There's no way to know how much more a driver could do, if we have no better meassure. So the top performing driver within a team always shows us what we believe to be the upper potential, irregardless if that driver himself is underperforming (relative to what is theoretically possible). For the top driver, it's easy to make excuses too; car is crap, too difficult, unpredictable etc.

What i am saying is is that Vettel isnt tested, nor is he really under pressure, because he is the top performing driver of his team. Everyone knows he is not a magician. No fault then in not beating the Mercedes, which are obviously a much better car. So the 'pressure' in beating another team is not by the driver alone, but shared as the entire team.

Beating your team mate however, that is personal pressure. And right now, he has none if it, neither did Alonso in the past 7 seasons since 2007.

He's achieved 4 WDCs, he is at Ferrari and the loved driver there. No pressure. That however doesnt mean he isnt hungry (ehrgeizig) for more. And he will try, but he is also a realist enough to know that the odds up until Hungary werent there. If the summer break will have changed that, we will see. Facing pressure ahainst other teams WITH your team, or facing pressure against your intra team competitor are two seperate things however.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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ME4ME
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Re: Silly season 2016

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Phil wrote:A driver is ever as good or bad, relative to his team mate. If a former world championship comes 4th while his team mate comes 10th, it will be looked as "the best possible result" - because that's all we can quantify. There's no way to know how much more a driver could do, if we have no better meassure. So the top performing driver within a team always shows us what we believe to be the upper potential, irregardless if that driver himself is underperforming (relative to what is theoretically possible). For the top driver, it's easy to make excuses too; car is crap, too difficult, unpredictable etc.
Hah, interesting. That seems to be exactly what Ferrari is saying about Hulkenberg. He totally crushed Gutierrez over a season, yet with the data they have available they seem to think he didn't achieve upper potential of the car. Certainly worth thinking about..

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Schuttelberg
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Re: Silly season 2016

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ME4ME wrote:
Phil wrote:A driver is ever as good or bad, relative to his team mate. If a former world championship comes 4th while his team mate comes 10th, it will be looked as "the best possible result" - because that's all we can quantify. There's no way to know how much more a driver could do, if we have no better meassure. So the top performing driver within a team always shows us what we believe to be the upper potential, irregardless if that driver himself is underperforming (relative to what is theoretically possible). For the top driver, it's easy to make excuses too; car is crap, too difficult, unpredictable etc.
Hah, interesting. That seems to be exactly what Ferrari is saying about Hulkenberg. He totally crushed Gutierrez over a season, yet with the data they have available they seem to think he didn't achieve upper potential of the car. Certainly worth thinking about..
What? Hulkenberg was having duels with Alonso and Hamilton in 2012 and sometimes beating them. For god's sake let's not enter this 'data' talk. Ferrari had all the data in the world regarding Luca Badoer for more than ten years and yet they decided to put him in the car in 2009. Hulkenberg was close to landing the seat for 2014 and narrowly lost out to Raikkonen. As we can see, it's not turned out to be the brightest decision, if not in terms of results, at least in terms of results ratio to salary.
"Sebastian there's very, you're a member of a very select few.. Stewart, Lauda, Piquet, Senna, Prost, Schumacher, Fangio.. VETTEL!"

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ME4ME
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Re: Silly season 2016

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All i'm saying is Phils description matched the Ferrari quote which I posted 1 page ago.
"When [Nico] was with [Ferrari-engined] Sauber we had access to all his data, and somehow we were never totally convinced," one Ferrari insider told this writer. "Ask yourself why we didn't sign his when we had the chance before bringing Kimi back."
Performance against Alonso, Hamilton etc is irrelevant in this case - that isn't was Phil was talking about. I suggest you read it again.

I'm not saying Hulkenberg isn't particulary quick nor am I saying Ferrari is right in their approach nor do I know for certain that quote is genuine.

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Re: Silly season 2016

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Schuttelberg wrote:Hulkenberg was close to landing the seat for 2014 and narrowly lost out to Raikkonen. As we can see, it's not turned out to be the brightest decision, if not in terms of results, at least in terms of results ratio to salary.
Hulk not being in the Ferrari has nothing to do with his speed. If he would be a Finn he would be there. Ferrari just can't sell two German drivers and they wanted Vettel.
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Silly season 2016

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So a German is a tougher sell than a finn these days?
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iotar__
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Re: Silly season 2016

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ME4ME wrote:All i'm saying is Phils description matched the Ferrari quote which I posted 1 page ago.
"When [Nico] was with [Ferrari-engined] Sauber we had access to all his data, and somehow we were never totally convinced," one Ferrari insider told this writer. "Ask yourself why we didn't sign his when we had the chance before bringing Kimi back."
Performance against Alonso, Hamilton etc is irrelevant in this case - that isn't was Phil was talking about. I suggest you read it again.
I'm not saying Hulkenberg isn't particulary quick nor am I saying Ferrari is right in their approach nor do I know for certain that quote is genuine.
I read it too and didn't like it. In the same article Raikkonen's solid drive in Hungary was to help him keep the seat (ignoring all the other 25 races) and Verstappen's fourth place, after team orders, safety car, penalty, slashing Bottas' tyre and 5 other accidents in front made him prime candidate for Ferrari seat in '16 #-o. Funny how they don't need full Sauber's data to make this decision. It's that kind of quality F1 logic.

Without going into discussion about Hulkenberg's worth this quote may be genuine but intentions not necessarily, I'd be very careful with Ferrari's leaked information:
1. It's too vague and they might be covering their decision. Why were they close to signing him then?
2. I'd like to see some reference points from other drivers, for example what kind of engineering data convinced them to keep Raikkonen after 2014 season? What about other drivers like Bianchi, was his data better or also not convincing? Did they expect it to get better in 2016? Was Massa's data good enough to keep him in '13 but not '14 etc.
PlatinumZealot wrote:So a German is a tougher sell than a finn these days?
The point is it's supposedly harder to sell ->two<- Germans (Finns etc.) at Ferrari which makes sense. Argument that can't be applied to 2014 situation with Alonso as the other driver which somehow got mixed up.

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Schuttelberg
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Re: Silly season 2016

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ME4ME wrote:All i'm saying is Phils description matched the Ferrari quote which I posted 1 page ago.
"When [Nico] was with [Ferrari-engined] Sauber we had access to all his data, and somehow we were never totally convinced," one Ferrari insider told this writer. "Ask yourself why we didn't sign his when we had the chance before bringing Kimi back."
Performance against Alonso, Hamilton etc is irrelevant in this case - that isn't was Phil was talking about. I suggest you read it again.

I'm not saying Hulkenberg isn't particulary quick nor am I saying Ferrari is right in their approach nor do I know for certain that quote is genuine.
Performance against Hamilton and Alonso is absolutely genuine. I read whatever Phil said, in detail, and I'm sorry, but there's absolutely no way you look past Hulkenberg unless you hire Ricciardo.

For years, Ferrari have had a history of making bad choices. Of course, we're all wiser in hindsight. No question about it, but this 'insider' you choose to believe is absolute bollocks. If Ferrari were convinced enough to hire Raikkonen again after his run with Massa in (2007-2009) there's no reason to believe that Hulkenberg is so bad.

Can I genuinely ask you a question?

Hulkenberg has consistently scored better than Perez (ex- Ferrari protege). He beat every other team mate other than Barrichello in his rookie year where he got a pole. Raikkonen got picked by McLaren after being done in by Heidfeld and he struggled against DC for a season.

I know Hulkenberg isn't the next Senna/Schumacher who has stamped his outright claim to be in a Mercedes/Ferrari. But, looking at the current situation, it's rather daft to suggest he doesn't deserve to be in the second Ferrari considering Ricciardo isn't getting out of the Red Bull anytime soon.

I said this in an earlier post, and I will say it again- Why Luca Badoer in 2009? Data only gives you an indication, not a delivery of true talent. Vergne and Ricciardo were neck and neck. It would be outlandish to say Vergne would do Vettel like Ricciardo did in 2014.

On the current grid, you're either going Hulk or Bottas. I'll agree I'm biased on this, but I'm going Hulk. A guy who has won everything along with Le Mans must be something. And, Ive been a huge Schumacher/Vettel fan all my life and I have a feeling that Hulkenberg can annoy Vettel but Bottas can't. I also feel Vettel is yet to peak and I'm convinced, Hulk can push him there, Bottas can't. Hell, I feel Hulkenberg can beat Vettel. Bottas? I'll see to believe it.
"Sebastian there's very, you're a member of a very select few.. Stewart, Lauda, Piquet, Senna, Prost, Schumacher, Fangio.. VETTEL!"

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Schuttelberg
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Re: Silly season 2016

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iotar__ wrote:
ME4ME wrote:All i'm saying is Phils description matched the Ferrari quote which I posted 1 page ago.
"When [Nico] was with [Ferrari-engined] Sauber we had access to all his data, and somehow we were never totally convinced," one Ferrari insider told this writer. "Ask yourself why we didn't sign his when we had the chance before bringing Kimi back."
Performance against Alonso, Hamilton etc is irrelevant in this case - that isn't was Phil was talking about. I suggest you read it again.
I'm not saying Hulkenberg isn't particulary quick nor am I saying Ferrari is right in their approach nor do I know for certain that quote is genuine.
I read it too and didn't like it. In the same article Raikkonen's solid drive in Hungary was to help him keep the seat (ignoring all the other 25 races) and Verstappen's fourth place, after team orders, safety car, penalty, slashing Bottas' tyre and 5 other accidents in front made him prime candidate for Ferrari seat in '16 #-o. Funny how they don't need full Sauber's data to make this decision. It's that kind of quality F1 logic.

Without going into discussion about Hulkenberg's worth this quote may be genuine but intentions not necessarily, I'd be very careful with Ferrari's leaked information:
1. It's too vague and they might be covering their decision. Why were they close to signing him then?
2. I'd like to see some reference points from other drivers, for example what kind of engineering data convinced them to keep Raikkonen after 2014 season? What about other drivers like Bianchi, was his data better or also not convincing? Did they expect it to get better in 2016? Was Massa's data good enough to keep him in '13 but not '14 etc.
PlatinumZealot wrote:So a German is a tougher sell than a finn these days?
The point is it's supposedly harder to sell ->two<- Germans (Finns etc.) at Ferrari which makes sense. Argument that can't be applied to 2014 situation with Alonso as the other driver which somehow got mixed up.
F1 believes in a lot of eye wash. Was Massa really deserving of the Ferrari seat in 2006 itself? I know of at least three other drivers that were a better choice.

Unfortunately, money, marketing and politics plays a huge role in F1 opportunities. Personally, I'd love to see Hulkenberg lead Renault's charge back into F1 with Grosjean in 2017 @ Enstone because I don't think Ferrari will hire him. They're going for Bottas.
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Phil
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Re: Silly season 2016

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Schuttelberg wrote:For years, Ferrari have had a history of making bad choices. Of course, we're all wiser in hindsight. No question about it, but this 'insider' you choose to believe is absolute bollocks. If Ferrari were convinced enough to hire Raikkonen again after his run with Massa in (2007-2009) there's no reason to believe that Hulkenberg is so bad.
I agree with this, though I wouldn't exactly word is as harshly. If we think about what that data is; I am assuming it is data of the kind that Lewis Hamilton shared on public channels during the 2012 Spa weekend when he was beaten by Button using a very different setup. In other words; throttle/brake diagram, shifting, speed etc. That data in itself is probably pretty meaningless, unless overlayed with the same curve of the team-mate or some simulation within a computer with very limited data etc. Given how well Hulkenberg has performed, I would too think that the data couldn't more 'damaging' to him, than it would be for his at times, less quick team-mate(s). Maybe the people looking at that data and genuinely not being impressed by it, were not factoring in what the car itself must have played a role in it. I guess if you have a bad car, both drivers, will fall short of expectations. Just look at Perez and Button in 2013. Button was at least a known quantity, which is why he got to keep his seat - Perez was less and despite driving very similar to Button, he got axed in the end.

Anyway, about Ferrari and Hulkenberg. I just think they are trying to overplay the mistake they've made by signing Kimi again by coming up with some excuses on why they went with Kimi over Hulkenberg. If I were Ferrari and I'd be looking back at lots of bad decisions over the years, I guess I'd do the same too. And Ferrari is in the sport to do well. For them image is very important. Can't have too many public errors being shredded by the Italian media too much.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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zeph
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Re: Silly season 2016

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hpras
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Re: Silly season 2016

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First real 'blink' of the silly season. RAI stays, so BOT or VER stay. Does BUT stay? I guess Ron will tell him in December again.