Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Jolle]

I guess the electric business plane is more a first generation proof of concept with very limited customer base. Bit like that first GM EV. Think short hauls for Silicon Valley investors and CEO’s.

[Just_a_fan]

I guess the electric business plane is more a first generation proof of concept with very limited customer base. Bit like that first GM EV. Think short hauls for Silicon Valley investors and CEO’s.

Oh, it's undoubtedly an proof of concept idea.

The question is how well will electric aircraft scale up? One thing about traditional turbofan aircraft is that they get more efficient as the flight goes on and this helps with the range. They are heavy at take off, clamber up to mid level and then as they burn fuel they can fly higher. Flying higher makes them more efficient as there is less drag. So burning off tens of tonnes of jet fuel (a 787 can carry 100t of fuel, for example).

A turbofan can be heavy on take off because it's designed to lose a lot of weight and so land lighter. The electric plane never benefits from that effect as it lands exactly as heavy as it takes off. Ok, not exactly but close enough for this discussion.

I think this subject will be more interesting to follow than cars. Cars are an easy EV project compared to aircraft.

[J.A.W.]

The project was presented in 2019 Paris Airshow, and it´s been under develpment since then. I found it quite interesting as current bateries are heavy and I didn´t think a full electric passenger aircraft was doable with current battery technology, but here it is.




1134kg / 11 passengers equals 123kg/passenger with luggage. Or a 100kg person with 23kg luggage including crew who will obviously not carry so much luggage. That´s what you call smallish people JAW?





Maybe it´s because it didn´t fly yet

They´ve been testing the EPU (Electric Propulsion Unit) and now it´s ready to be fitted into Alice. Here´s a quote from this recent article

So, still no 1st flight then, yet?

Not even with a single-engine test machine?
Seems perhaps a tad risky to attempt to fly both novel airframe & power-plant, all at once...

Did you bother to read my post before replying???

The magniX delivery is one of the key milestones in getting emission free, low-cost, all-electric aviation off the ground with the first flight of Alice. After many successful flights and tests of the magniX EPUs, we’re confident the system will propel us to bringing Alice to market and delivering a sustainable, scalable mobility solution that will revolutionize passenger and cargo flights.

& Andres, your calculations appear to be somewhat awry, given that 11 people of 100kg
will have a mean luggage allowance of ~3kg each, if max payload is not to be exceeded.

Right, but average people weight is 70kg, not your absurd example with over 100kg people

Only in North America people get close to 100kg but not even that, the average is 80kg, while global average weight is around 70kg, so north american average still can carry 23kg of luggage, while the world average can carry 33kg of luggage.

You americans have a serious problem with obesity (not my opinion, it´s the opinion of any doctor you ask), but even in Noth America using over 100kg people as an example is absurd.

<Personal stuff removed>

As for the average weight of a typical 'commuter jet' passenger, that would certainly be
very likely closer to/above that of an adult male of affluent Western origin, viz: ~90kg...

What aircraft has flown with the EPU? Was it solely powered by it? Certainly no example was shown.
& I note you still continue to ignore the question of turnaround (recharge) time/efficiency factors.

(The Alice aircraft does appear to have perhaps been somewhat inspired by the Bugatti, even to
the extent of being a 'tail dragger' - albeit as a triple prop pusher - instead of contra-prop tractor,
- see below)



Furthermore, the structure of liquid fuelled passenger planes (inc' undercarriage/landing gear)
is predicated on a landing weight significant lower than MTOW, with fuel burn a calculated part
of ensuring efficiency in overall structural weight, & in landing performance, something the
Alice aircraft, with its battery (^50% of MTOW) is fundamentally unable to emulate.

<Personal stuff removed>

[Jolle]

I guess the electric business plane is more a first generation proof of concept with very limited customer base. Bit like that first GM EV. Think short hauls for Silicon Valley investors and CEO’s.

Oh, it's undoubtedly an proof of concept idea.

The question is how well will electric aircraft scale up? One thing about traditional turbofan aircraft is that they get more efficient as the flight goes on and this helps with the range. They are heavy at take off, clamber up to mid level and then as they burn fuel they can fly higher. Flying higher makes them more efficient as there is less drag. So burning off tens of tonnes of jet fuel (a 787 can carry 100t of fuel, for example).

A turbofan can be heavy on take off because it's designed to lose a lot of weight and so land lighter. The electric plane never benefits from that effect as it lands exactly as heavy as it takes off. Ok, not exactly but close enough for this discussion.

I think this subject will be more interesting to follow than cars. Cars are an easy EV project compared to aircraft.

Good chance, just like cars, they start with a specific small share of use. Short range, low costs per flight, etc etc. But slowly with the increase of energy per kg of battery will see more possibilities. Somewhere in the future there is a battery with twice the energy per kg then kerosine.
Of course, it still makes more sense for the US to invest in a real high speed train network.

[Andres125sx]

They did same approach than Musk with Tesla. The product will be expensive anycase, so build a luxury product and people at least get a revenue for that high price they must pay.

Someone did compare it with helicopters. Completely different. Helis are extremelly noisy while this one will be even quieter than a (traditional) plane. Also the yaw control with differential trust for cross winds allows much better stability so this one will probably be the smoothest and more stable aircraft out there, at least for the size


Anycase as said, this is first electric passenger aircraft ever. A proof of concept more than a real rival of any existing machine

[Just_a_fan]

But slowly with the increase of energy per kg of battery will see more possibilities. Somewhere in the future there is a battery with twice the energy per kg then kerosine.

That's a very long time in the future, if at all. Current batteries are at best about 1-2% of the energy density of oil-derived fuels. To get to batteries that are 200% is unlikely, to be frank. This isn't just about technology, there are hard physical limits created by the chemistry.

[dave kumar]

Airships/dirigibles/flying-blimps seem like a good candidate for electification. The weight of the batteries required for electric propulsion requires fewer compromises if a large proportion of their lift come from lighter-than-air gases (predominantly helium or hydrogen).

This project (Hybrid Air Vehicles), is described as a hybrid aircraft as the lift comes from a combination of aerodynamic lift and lifting gases.
https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/our-aircraft/faq/

A hybrid aircraft derives its lift from a combination of aerodynamic lift (like an aeroplane), lifting gases (like an airship) and vectored thrust (similar to a helicopter). Airlander generates up to 40% of its lift from aerodynamics by the passage of air over the hull and the remainder from buoyant lift from the helium. At lower speed and closer to the ground, vectoring engine power is used to provide additional lift and manoeuvrability for take-off, landing and ground handling.

They are exploring electric propulsion to replace the existing (jet fuel powered) engines.
https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/news- ... ws/e-hav1/

A partnership of Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV), Collins Aerospace, and the University of Nottingham (UoN) has won grant funding in excess of £1m from the UK Aerospace Research and Technology Programme to develop electric propulsion technologies using Airlander 10 as the initial platform. The project, named E-HAV1, will deliver a full-sized prototype 500kW electric propulsor for ground testing and technologies ready for future productionisation. These technologies will be directly applicable to a future Airlander 10, with the goal of replacing its fuel-burning forward engines as the first step towards an all-electric version of the aircraft.

Utilising a combination of buoyant lift from helium, aerodynamic lift, and vectored thrust, Airlander 10 already operates with a significantly lower fuel burn than other aircraft of similar capability. The integration of electric forward propulsors will increase this advantage. Airlander 10’s ability to support a broad range of activities from passenger travel to fisheries protection makes it the ideal platform for pioneering electric propulsion in civil aircraft.

[Big Tea]

Airships/dirigibles/flying-blimps seem like a good candidate for electification. The weight of the batteries required for electric propulsion requires fewer compromises if a large proportion of their lift come from lighter-than-air gases (predominantly helium or hydrogen).

This project (Hybrid Air Vehicles), is described as a hybrid aircraft as the lift comes from a combination of aerodynamic lift and lifting gases.
https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/our-aircraft/faq/

A hybrid aircraft derives its lift from a combination of aerodynamic lift (like an aeroplane), lifting gases (like an airship) and vectored thrust (similar to a helicopter). Airlander generates up to 40% of its lift from aerodynamics by the passage of air over the hull and the remainder from buoyant lift from the helium. At lower speed and closer to the ground, vectoring engine power is used to provide additional lift and manoeuvrability for take-off, landing and ground handling.

They are exploring electric propulsion to replace the existing (jet fuel powered) engines.
https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/news- ... ws/e-hav1/

A partnership of Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV), Collins Aerospace, and the University of Nottingham (UoN) has won grant funding in excess of £1m from the UK Aerospace Research and Technology Programme to develop electric propulsion technologies using Airlander 10 as the initial platform. The project, named E-HAV1, will deliver a full-sized prototype 500kW electric propulsor for ground testing and technologies ready for future productionisation. These technologies will be directly applicable to a future Airlander 10, with the goal of replacing its fuel-burning forward engines as the first step towards an all-electric version of the aircraft.

Utilising a combination of buoyant lift from helium, aerodynamic lift, and vectored thrust, Airlander 10 already operates with a significantly lower fuel burn than other aircraft of similar capability. The integration of electric forward propulsors will increase this advantage. Airlander 10’s ability to support a broad range of activities from passenger travel to fisheries protection makes it the ideal platform for pioneering electric propulsion in civil aircraft.

I read somewhere about a solar panel that can be rolled up like a carpet. If they become light enough coating the outer surface of the 'ship' with these could reduce the required battery weight considerably.
There is the added bonus of if power runs out it wont fall out of the sky or be stranded up there, which we have with no other air vehicle (other than gliders)

[Greg Locock]

Flexible solar panels do exist, but printable solar panels are where the research is going. Personally I doubt that lighter than air transport will ever be more than a niche product, but at least it is fun.

[J.A.W.]

They did same approach than Musk with Tesla. The product will be expensive anycase, so build a luxury product and people at least get a revenue for that high price they must pay.

Someone did compare it with helicopters. Completely different. Helis are extremelly noisy while this one will be even quieter than a (traditional) plane. Also the yaw control with differential trust for cross winds allows much better stability so this one will probably be the smoothest and more stable aircraft out there, at least for the size


Anycase as said, this is first electric passenger aircraft ever. A proof of concept more than a real rival of any existing machine

Quite some hopeful assertions there too Andres, esp' given no flights as yet, let alone with paying
passengers, so as a supposed "proof of concept..." that isn't even "...a real rival", that's an over-reach.

[Andres125sx]

So, still no 1st flight then, yet?

Not even with a single-engine test machine?
Seems perhaps a tad risky to attempt to fly both novel airframe & power-plant, all at once...

Did you bother to read my post before replying???

The magniX delivery is one of the key milestones in getting emission free, low-cost, all-electric aviation off the ground with the first flight of Alice. After many successful flights and tests of the magniX EPUs, we’re confident the system will propel us to bringing Alice to market and delivering a sustainable, scalable mobility solution that will revolutionize passenger and cargo flights.

& Andres, your calculations appear to be somewhat awry, given that 11 people of 100kg
will have a mean luggage allowance of ~3kg each, if max payload is not to be exceeded.

Right, but average people weight is 70kg, not your absurd example with over 100kg people

Only in North America people get close to 100kg but not even that, the average is 80kg, while global average weight is around 70kg, so north american average still can carry 23kg of luggage, while the world average can carry 33kg of luggage.

You americans have a serious problem with obesity (not my opinion, it´s the opinion of any doctor you ask), but even in Noth America using over 100kg people as an example is absurd.

<Personal stuff removed>

As for the average weight of a typical 'commuter jet' passenger, that would certainly be
very likely closer to/above that of an adult male of affluent Western origin, viz: ~90kg...

So this plane is built only for western adult males? No kids allowed? No women allowed? No asians allowed?

An average is an average, if you only take western adut males into consideration that´s not an average anymore and the discussion becomes absurd

What aircraft has flown with the EPU? Was it solely powered by it? Certainly no example was shown.
& I note you still continue to ignore the question of turnaround (recharge) time/efficiency factors.

Sorry JAW but even if I´d love it, I´m not part of the developing program so I don´t know any more details than those exposed in those links. Ask the developers if you´re interested

Furthermore, the structure of liquid fuelled passenger planes (inc' undercarriage/landing gear) is predicated on a landing weight significant lower than MTOW, with fuel burn a calculated part
of ensuring efficiency in overall structural weight, & in landing performance, something the
Alice aircraft, with its battery (^50% of MTOW) is fundamentally unable to emulate.

I guess you didn´t notice how absurd it this sentence JAW. Yes the structure of liquid fuelled passsenger planes is designed for lower weight at landing. But this is not a liquid fuelled passenger plane so it will be designed with different parameters. I guess the engineers did notice this, don´t worry JAW, it will resist the landings

[hollus]

Can we please stop the semantics and the personal jabs?

[nzjrs]

Furthermore, the structure of liquid fuelled passenger planes (inc' undercarriage/landing gear)
is predicated on a landing weight significant lower than MTOW, with fuel burn a calculated part
of ensuring efficiency in overall structural weight, & in landing performance, something the
Alice aircraft, with its battery (^50% of MTOW) is fundamentally unable to emulate.

Ha, interesting! I had not considered that before.

[Tommy Cookers]

Furthermore, the structure of liquid fuelled passenger planes (inc' undercarriage/landing gear)
is predicated on a landing weight significant lower than MTOW, with fuel burn a calculated part
of ensuring efficiency in overall structural weight, & in landing performance, something the
Alice aircraft, with its battery (^50% of MTOW) is fundamentally unable to emulate.

Ha, interesting! I had not considered that before.

yes
and remarkably the Alice has a tailwheel (undercarriage) arrangement - ie main wheels ahead of the cg not behind it
(this driven by the battery weight & positioning issue)
designers stopped using this 75 years ago

today's pilots don't have the extra skills (for tailwheel aircraft) - and they won't be getting them
so there's gizmos to do automatically the necessary (as I wrote a year or two ago)
but all to be certified for use

conventional aircraft are allowed to touch down pointing off the runway (ie without correction for crosswind)
because they are mechanically directionally stable - ie the tyre forces (behind the cg) pull them straight
tailwheel aircraft are in this case unstable - and will 'ground-loop' (swerve off the runway like an F1 car spinning)

and crosswind limits (permissible) with conventional aircraft have been increased
ie airports tend to operate 'single runway'
Alice's supposed environmental leverage won't get far otherwise

[Tommy Cookers]

https://youtu.be/W0DHhiwvatQ

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