Is nuclear the way to go?

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xpensive
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In the same way as off-shore windpower at 2.2 MEUR per installed MW and an availability of 40% is pure fantasy.

2.2 is more like the cost on land and 40% is just a number taken at random.

Xperiences so far speaks more like 3.5 MEUR per installed MW and an availability of 30+%, long term we have no idea.
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Pup
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Sorry, but this is a ridiculous discussion. Wind power is a redundant supply, so talking about it's cost compared to nuclear is a bit daft. If it costs less than nuclear, then great. You've still got to build the nuke. Or a coal plant, or a dam, or whatever.

The only practical green alternative to nuclear with today's technology is hydro. So if you want to compare those costs, then have at it. Someday, we'll have efficient enough PV for it to be practical. But when that happens, we'll be talking about consumer solutions and not national grids.

Also, the future of nuclear is with micro-nukes. And at $2.5M per MW for a turnkey, distributed, terrorist-proof, cheap to run solution, they aren't that bad. And that's the pilot cost - the real price tag should be a decent amount less.
Last edited by Pup on 22 Mar 2011, 12:36, edited 1 time in total.

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WhiteBlue
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Myurr, I know very well that ITER is just an experiment. That is why I called it money for physicists to play with. There is no guarantee whatsoever that the research will ever lead to abundant, fee energy. It could also just be a bottomless pit for money for 100 years without practical purpose. My jerry can picture was just that, a picture to make the fusion lovers aware of the reality of their dreams.

expensive

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009 ... ndon-array
The figure of €2.2bn came from Wikipedia. Due to your scepticism I have checked the details and found that it only applied to phase one, which covered 63% of the project's wind turbines. It may cover the whole infra structure of mains cables and substations though. That is unknown. I'm prepared to revise my figures for discounted prices from €2.2bn to €3.5bn as you proposed. My bad. This correction brings the wind and the nuclear option on the same cost level per initial investment per net GW once you have added the finance cost for the construction period.

Regarding the net power of wind arrays you have to distinguish between summer and winter. For UK off shore locations the winter load factor is expected at 40% while this value drops to 30% in summer. It is also known that peak demand in summer is only 75% of the winter peak demand. This is the reason why the summer load is not the critical point. If demand goes down by 25% the net power supply from the wind turbines can follow that demand without causing problems.

Pup

Dislocated wind power is not qualified as a 100% redundant capacity. It is unscientific to suggest that. It is always envisioned to support wind with other energy sources.

My figures were only covering the initial investment and I have shown that today off shore wind is on par with nuclear. Undoubtedly there are consequential costs for using higher percentage of wind power. You need a robust grid and some peak capacities from storage installations such as natural gas or hydrogen produced from wind which can be burned in fuel cells or gas turbine driven generators.

Nuclear energy has consequential cost as well which are not covered by the initial investment. The highly radioactive waste has to be stored for ages and the sites have to be dismantled and safely disposed of. The capital cost for the total disposal should by far exceed those for grid reserves of wind power.
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WhiteBlue
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WilliamsF1 wrote:WB what are your thoughts on geothermal energy, they are a lot more reliable than wind.
If you are in Iceland you would be mad not to use geothermal. In Germany we foresee to use some where we have hot springs but generally we do not have much volcanism.
Pup wrote: ...
Also, the future of nuclear is with micro-nukes. And at $2.5M per MW for a turnkey, distributed, terrorist-proof, cheap to run solution, they aren't that bad. And that's the pilot cost - the real price tag should be a decent amount less.
Ah, the pebble bed micro nuke. It is a dream and not a realistic investment proposal at this time. You cannot buy this thing today and if you decide to do a project the cost will be open ended. Nobody will sell you this thing as a turnkey installation at a fixed price. Nobody may ever, depending of the results of 10 or 20 years of development work that is needed before these things can be licensed.
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WhiteBlue
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The capital cost of nuclear waste disposal in Finnland.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf76.html

Finnland will build a nuclear waste disposal facility for 6.2 GW of their present and planned generating capacity at discounted capital cost of estimated €3bn. The specific capital cost is 0.5 €bn/GW.

It is unknown what the capital cost of uranium fuel fabrication or MOX reprocessing plants are. I bet they are not peanuts particularly when you take decommissioning cost into account. I will investigate that later.

The decommissioning cost of commercial scale BWR and PWR type NNPs in Western Europe are estimated at €0.5bn/GW.

So the additional capital cost for waste disposal and decommissioning will be a minimum of €1bn/GW before you start looking at the capital cost of building and decommissioning of processing plants.

Natural gas or hydrogen combined cycle plants have investment cost of €0.63bn/GW. Even if we consider to back up 33% of our installed net wind capacity with redundant gas power we will only have additional capital cost of €0.21bn/GW. At this level of the study we only need 21% of the consequential capital cost of an NPP. We may need additional capital for producing hydrogen from wind energy and storing it. I'm prepared to figure in 10% of the wind power investment to generate hydrogen which can be burned in the timely very limited cases the wind power needs to be augmented by the hydrogen power stations. This would add another €0.55bn/GW to our consequential capital investments. The total in that case is 0.76bn/GW which is still favourable compared to nuclear.
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Ciro Pabón
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This is from a friend to WB:

How many roads must a man walk down before they call him a man? (a lot, if you ask me) However, the answer is...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgFz3tZYg-M[/youtube]

Yes, n' how many years can some people exist
before they're allowed to be free?


2060, 2100? Well, then, let's start today.

And this is another point I would like to state for all my friends posting in the previous page, X, WilliamsF1, myurr, Pup.

Somehow the sun keeps shining upon you, while I struggle to get mine... (that's it, ITER)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMAFAqOxyOc[/youtube]

Making new friends along the way.
I won't ask much of nobody,
I'm just here to sing along.
And make my mistakes looks gracious,
And learn some lessons from my wrongs.
...
Oh, if this little light of mine
Combined with yours today,
How many watts could we illuminate?
How many villages could we save?

And my umbrella's tired of the weather,
Wearing me down.


So, let's support ITER, wind, hydro, anything that works.

BTW, you can start at home After all, Fusion is relatively cheap.

1.2 Gigawatts for 175.000 dollars. Beat that, wind power!
Image

Customer comment: my time from 0 to 60 went from 7.2 seconds to -4.5 (that is minus 4.5)...

You should try the Muffler Bearing, the Brass Balls, the Blinker Fluid and the Engine Oil Bypass Kit. Great store, Kaleco, only for true racing addicts (you know, those with imagination and good humour, product of the wind blowing in their faces).
Ciro

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WhiteBlue
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segedunum wrote:No matter how you fiddle the figures I'm afraid nothing of what you're postulating on will generate enough power for any grid anywhere WB. It's that simple. The fact remains that despite a lot of people enjoying a lot of subsidies winds, waves and much vaunted 'renewables' generate a miniscule amount of power on any national grid. The only way anyone has been able to argue that they are serious replacements with any straight face is to pluck fantasy 'efficiency savings' out of thin air.
Image Thanks for your vote of confidence, segedunum. I do not fiddle figures. I enter a considered argument and I adjust my calculations when people with a brain - like xpensive - show me where adjustments need to be made. I do enjoy that kind of competition. Typically people who have no leg to stand on are unable to make their point with figures. So I hope this will not be your last try in this discussion. Arguing with the past status quo is not helpful in a changing world economy. The issue of the thread is the correct way into the future and not the mistakes of the past. I just read a very intelligent comment in another BB.
desmo wrote:I think the primary advantage of nuclear over renewables is that nuclear is inherently centralized, consists of tightly controlled tech and has a high buy-in so that the profits will be huge on the construction phase and there is little or no threat of competing similar businesses starting up to generate power. Also the costs of exporting capital for fuel, defending the supply chain and indefinitely disposing of the waste can all be exported to the public sector giving an unfair cost advantage. Wind, tidal, solar don't have those existing built in taxpayer funded subsidies and can all potentially be done on a smaller scale that corporations might have to defend against new or innovative competition. By comparison nuclear looks like a money printing machine heavily subsidized by taxpayer monies and pretty much a guaranteed monopoly forever. Why would you steer away from that?
If "desmo" is right we have very good signs for the future. The huge power infra structure corporations (GE, Siemens) are exciting nuclear and are heavily investing in wind powered electricity generation. Perhaps the public has finally found out that they do not need nuclear reactors for a good future.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

myurr
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Or perhaps they're just following the subsidies...

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Ciro Pabón
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Yes, myurr, agreed. I cannot believe WB is complaining about subsidies to fision and nuclear power.

So, all right, as you wish, numbers and dense prose for dense people.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ble-energy

"...the government's and other agencies' promotion of wind turbines came about because of lobbying by industrialists, and not because of straightforward science or economics. Wind turbines are designed to last about 25 years, after which they must be dismantled. Within that time they will be profitable for the industry and investors only because of renewables obligation certificates (ROCs), which are part of a system that obliges electricity supply companies to progressively source more of their energy from "renewables"

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/22 ... rmal_fail/

"... the wind industry remains vulnerable on Government kindness, in the shape of feed-in tariffs (FITs). FITs are a form of wholesale price-fixing, introduced to stimulate investment in new energy sources. If consumers' desire for cheap energy was allowed to be met by the market, it would lift millions of poor people out of fuel poverty. But then wind farms wouldn't be economical at all.

It's a uniquely inefficient technology. Windmills must be shut down if the wind blows too hard. And, quite often during the December cold snap, wind plants used more electricity than they generated – just when the electricity was needed the most. (Electricity is drawn from the grid for yaw control, lighting, de-icing, pumps and to power the control mechanisms.)

.... generosity can't go on forever... even as a method of reducing CO2 emissions, wind remains singularly hopeless. Denmark has been the biggest European investor in wind energy, yet still gets half of its electricity from coal-fired power stations – as much as it did before.... Not all renewables are quite as harmful to humans or the economy, it should be stressed, as wind turbines..."

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/34596

... the Netherlands is reducing its targets for renewable energy and slashing the subsidies for wind and solar power. It has also given the green light for the country’s first new nuclear power plants in almost 40 years. Why the change? Wind and solar subsidies are too expensive. Holland thus becomes the first country to abandon the EU-wide target of producing 20 percent of its domestic power from renewables.

Italy’s government passed a decree to stop solar energy and deep cuts in wind energy due to their high costs to consumers and technical problems integrating these sources into the existing infrastructure.

Lawrence Solomon reports that December 2010 was a bad month for subsidies.

Spain slashed payouts for wind projects by 35% while denying support for solar thermal projects in their first year of operation. This latest round of Spanish cuts followed announcements in November that payouts for solar photovoltaic plants would be cut by 45%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitic ... y_not.html

"....under the government's Renewables Obligation electricity companies must buy power generated by onshore turbines at twice the market rate.

This 100% higher price is then passed on to the rest of us in higher electricity bills. (The price for offshore generated power enjoys, I'm told, an even higher officially-mandated mark up).

So it's not so much a subsidy in which government doles out billions of our money to keep the turbines going. It's an artificially high price they are empowered by law to charge to keep them going, which is then passed on the rest of us. Otherwise, as I understand it, the turbines would be uneconomic. You may conclude that is as much a subsidy as a straight taxpayers' grant.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/colu ... power.html

" the media mindlessly parroted a claim that its 240 turbines will be able to generate 1200MW, "enough to power 820,000 homes". In fact, thanks to the intermittency of the wind, their actual output would average little more than 300MW, equivalent to the needs of only 125,000 homes. Yet for this we will be paying three times the market rate, including a subsidy of £250 million a year. For the same capital cost of £3.6 billion, we could build enough gas-fired power stations to generate 15 times the amount of electricity, continuously, without a penny of subsidy and without ruining the views off the Jurassic Coast, which is a World Heritage Site for its natural beauty."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy ... costs.html

".....Whatever their environmental benefits, wind farms are pushing energy bills up. Their profitability depends on a hidden subsidy that is paid for entirely by you and me in our electricity bills. By 2020, this subsidy could amount to as much as a third of the whole bill. Big industry is beginning to wake up to the fact, and complain. Individual consumers haven't generally noticed.

In 2007, Tony Blair, making a grand European gesture in the knowledge that he would not be around to pick up the tab, committed Britain to producing 15 per cent of its energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020. This meant building wind farms, the only green technology ready in time (broad smiles on the faces of our German and Danish fellow Europeans who are supplying much of the hardware). How would this be funded? Step forward the then chancellor, Gordon Brown, who produced a system to which the word "byzantine" hardly does justice.

Every supplier of electricity to consumers was set a green energy target. Those that failed to meet the target were to be fined. But they could avoid the fine by buying renewable obligations certificates (ROCs) from green generators such as wind companies. This initiated a trade in ROCs that makes wind energy much more valuable than it would otherwise be in the marketplace. While a megawatt-hour of electricity may only be worth £40, an ROC for the equivalent amount of green energy might be £50: total price £90 - the whole of which can be charged directly back to the bill paid (perhaps unknowingly) by us, the consumers. Today's cost of £1.4 billion is expected to rise to £5 billion by 2020....

http://www.thisisscunthorpe.co.uk/news/ ... ticle.html

The average turbine receives income of about £500,000 a year. So, for a typical turbine, the community benefit of £2,300 a year will be paid out from an income of about £500,000, or roughly 0.5 per cent. Dr John Constable, director of policy and research said:
"The wind farm industry is taking our money with one hand and expecting us to be grateful for the small change offered with the other. Many will perceive community benefit of this kind and scale as adding insult to injury, and the plan seems unlikely to be persuasive."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/ ... 896287.ece

".. on December 30, an exceptionally still day, Britain's 3,000 operational wind turbines produced only 0.04 per cent of the country's power. The Energy Minister Charles Hendry told The Times that the figures proved the urgency with which other forms of low-carbon generation needed to be developed.

.... The fleet of turbines, onshore and off the coast, are thought to be capable of producing 4 per cent of Britain's electricity needs. Data obtained by The Times from the National Grid's Elexon unit reveal that for long periods in the summer wind farms produced less than 1 per cent of the country's electricity. That was repeated again in November and December. .... Mr Hendry said the data underlined what his department was trying to achieve in its electricity market reforms, which will be contained in a White Paper in the spring."

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... there.html

... media are beginning to wake up to the possibility that wind farms do not work in the cold - and that Germany is investing high efficiency coal plants, with a conversion factor of 45 percent, "compared to British coal sets which deliver about 38 percent.

Replacing our current coal capacity with high efficiency sets would, therefore, save vastly more "carbon" than the savings that the entire wind estate - current and planned - will deliver..."

Ask questions, do your homework, because once you let this guys in, your world is going to change forever and there is not a single thing you can do about it.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBYjZG8O6qE[/youtube]

"We are not against alternative energy sources... we are against this... monstrosities..."
Ciro

Pup
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It pays to know not only the subsidies, but also what you're paying for in the end. Take a look at who is behind the London Array: E.ON, DONG and Masdar (we know them as Mubadala). So, a gas company, a gas company, and - wait for it - a gas company. Why are gas companies so interested in erecting marginally profitable wind turbines? Simple answer, wind power protects their primary market. Every megawatt that a wind turbine produces must be backed up by another source, usually gas. Nuclear, on the other hand, provides base power - every nuke that goes up takes away 1000MW worth of their business. So, they promote wind, and solar. And they bash nuclear, often by funding groups like the Sierra Club to do their work for them.

Back to the beginning: by subsidizing wind projects, what exactly are you paying for in the end? Continued use of fossil fuel.

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WhiteBlue
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Ciro is a big disappointment for me. He posted nothing but politics and no single figure contributing to the investment cost comparison that we were discussing here lately. Where is the "engineering spirit".

Pup, cheap propaganda without any facts to support them.
Facts:
  • E.ON is a big utility and not a gas company. They operate 9 out of 17 German NPPs.
  • Dislocated wind power does not need the same amount of fossil power for backup. Only a small percentage needs to be backed up. Backup can be done by wind produced hydrogen.
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segedunum
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WhiteBlue wrote:Typically people who have no leg to stand on are unable to make their point with figures.
So, how big does that wind and wave farm and the solar array have to be to power the whole of the national grid in the UK WB? :lol:

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Ciro Pabón
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[
WhiteBlue wrote:He posted nothing ... no single figure contributing to the investment cost comparison that we were discussing here lately.
I provided you with a LOT of figures, two dozen by my count, some very similar to what you said: 3.6 billion devaluated euros for 20% of energy in UK. Of course, I also added that with this amount you can get 15 times the energy if you invest in gas plants. It's not my fault you don't like the numbers or that you choose to ignore them because they are not what you want to hear. Read the next post if you want more.
segedunum wrote:So, how big does that wind and wave farm and the solar array have to be to power the whole of the national grid in the UK WB?
Answers
1. How much land is necessary for a typical wind turbine?

Each wind turbine requires approximately 8ha (hectares) of land which equates to 80.000m2. The footprint of each individual turbine is relatively small measuring approximately 10m x 20m, with the adjacent crane pad of around 20m x 20m. Access roads would be required for each turbine on a route to be agreed with the landowner.

They measure around 5m in width and will ideally follow any existing tracks.
http://www.volkswind.co.uk/index.php?id=176

So, 3.000 turbines produce 1% of energy in the UK, as mentioned. For 20% (which is the European goal) you would need 60.000 turbines. At 8 Hectares each, this is 480.000 hectares (which still can be used for agriculture).

This is around 3% of the 18.7 million hectares classified as agricultural land in UK.

http://www.ukagriculture.com/uk_farming.cfm

For 100% (which nobody proposes) this would reach 15% of all land in UK. That would be horrible.
Last edited by Ciro Pabón on 23 Mar 2011, 11:00, edited 2 times in total.
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Ciro Pabón
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Colombia produces 81% of electric energy through hydroelectric plants, 18% in fossil fueled plants and 0.1% through wind.

Compare this with Germany: fossil fuelled power 61 %, nuclear power 23 % and renewable energy 18 %..

Cost of domestic energy is U$ 9.7 cents per Kwatt-hour. Ehem. In Germany is 30.6 U$ cents. In the UK is U$ 18.6 cents.
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WhiteBlue
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segedunum wrote:
WhiteBlue wrote:Typically people who have no leg to stand on are unable to make their point with figures.
So, how big does that wind and wave farm and the solar array have to be to power the whole of the national grid in the UK WB? :lol:
The UK has a total potential of 2,200 GW off shore wind power according to sources.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power ... ed_Kingdom
http://www.claverton-energy.com/two-ter ... ource.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_wind_turbine

Surely you don't need that much as you can use a mix which would even include some nuclear as long as the plants are safe.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)