2021 Pecking order prediction

[SirBastianVettel]

My predictions, posting this so I can see later how wrong is was .

1) Mercedes
...
2) Ferrari
3) Red Bull
...
4) McLaren
5) Alpine
6) Aston Martin
7) Alpha Tauri
...
Alfa Romeo
...
9) Haas
10) Williams

[Phil]

We should have a poll after every years testing. Just to see every money put some money where their mouth is. Me? I have no clue. I get the vibe the Mercedes camp isn't that happy and the articles I have read so far (AMuS) seem to indicate that the twitchy characteristic of the car is a problem and that they have no clue yet where it comes from. With only such a short time of testing, this doesn't bode well. On the other hand of the spectrum, Redbull came out and rocked testing with solid times and lots of data.

Does that mean Mercedes won't be the car to beat? Of course not. But I do think Mercedes have a few things to iron out that may see them on the back foot initially. We will see. I love these times. And I think we'll have a great season ahead.

[Ringleheim]

My predictions, posting this so I can see later how wrong is was .

1) Mercedes
...
2) Ferrari
3) Red Bull
...
4) McLaren
5) Alpine
6) Aston Martin
7) Alpha Tauri
...
Alfa Romeo
...
9) Haas
10) Williams

Ferrari will be nowhere close to 2nd best. I wish they would be #1! But it won't happen.

I actually think there is a shot that the Red Bull may be back on top again, not sure as of yet.

It's likely to be RB and Merc 1 and 2 (in some order) and then McLaren, Aston and Alpine are all looking pretty solid in that next tier.

Then I see Ferrari behind that, but maybe as a part of that tier too.

I see them 4th, 5th, or 6th again this year.

[Jambier]

FOM Data:

RBR
Mercedes +0.52s
McLaren +0.59s
Aston +0,72s
Alpine +0.8
AT +0.977
Alfa
Ferrari +1.28s
Haas
Williams

Could we sign somewhere for this to be real for the top 5 teams ?

The truth is winter testing in a dusty Barhain, only 3 days, so it is harder than usual to draw conclusions

[SirBastianVettel]

Ferrari will be nowhere close to 2nd best. I wish they would be #1! But it won't happen.

I see them 4th, 5th, or 6th again this year.

I have a feeling that Ferrari had a decent chassis last season but they were severely handicapped by their power unit. So I think that with a proper power unit this year they can go straight back where they were, which is second fastest. I don't think they'll be able to properly challenge Mercedes, but I don't think that Red Bull can either.

[Herr_Koos]

Ferrari will be nowhere close to 2nd best. I wish they would be #1! But it won't happen.

I see them 4th, 5th, or 6th again this year.

I have a feeling that Ferrari had a decent chassis last season but they were severely handicapped by their power unit. So I think that with a proper power unit this year they can go straight back where they were, which is second fastest. I don't think they'll be able to properly challenge Mercedes, but I don't think that Red Bull can either.

With a decent chassis, they would have been much closer to the front in rainy weather or less power sensitive circuits. They also would have been miles faster than their customer teams, but ended up racing Alfa Romeo much of the time. I haven't seen a single analyst claim that power was their only problem last year. It was a major problem, to be sure, but the car was clearly poorly balanced early in the season.

[hUirEYExbN]

Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Red Bull
Renault
Aston Martin
Alfa Romeo
Alpha Tauri
Williams
Haas

I have never been good at predictions, so I went somewhat against what I actually think will happen.

I'll have a go at a post testing one:

Mercedes
Red Bull
McLaren
Ferrari
Renault
Aston Martin
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Williams
Haas

I'll probably put some change on Red Bull for the title though.

[914hald]

This would be so awesome
Red Bull
McLaren
Mercedes
Alpine
Ferrari
Aston Martin
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Williams
Haas

But logically i'm quite sure that the W12 Will be insane when they unleash it.
With hidden filming day upgrade and Ham will win WDC again.

[etusch]

FOM Data:

RBR
Mercedes +0.52s
McLaren +0.59s
Aston +0,72s
Alpine +0.8
AT +0.977
Alfa
Ferrari +1.28s
Haas
Williams

Could we sign somewhere for this to be real for the top 5 teams ?

The truth is winter testing in a dusty Barhain, only 3 days, so it is harder than usual to draw conclusions

Mercedes needs to address it's problem before starting to improve their performance. Redbull was always good at inseason development and this time they will work on to improve a good car's performance without tyring to find out a problem.

[Jambier]

Motorsport Spain disagree with FOM:

Equipo Distancia con el líder Piloto más rápido
Red Bull – Netherlands M. Verstappen
Mercedes 0,615 segundos United Kingdom L. Hamilton
Ferrari 0,851 Spain C. Sainz
McLaren 0,884 Australia D. Ricciardo
Aston Martin 1,350 Canada L. Stroll
Alpine 1,558 Spain F. Alonso
AlphaTauri 1,603 France P. Gasly
Alfa Romeo 2,056 Finland K. Raikkonen
Williams 2,407 United Kingdom G. Russell
Haas 3,671 Russian Federation N. Mazepin

[mkay]

FOM Data:

RBR
Mercedes +0.52s
McLaren +0.59s
Aston +0,72s
Alpine +0.8
AT +0.977
Alfa
Ferrari +1.28s
Haas
Williams

Could we sign somewhere for this to be real for the top 5 teams ?

The truth is winter testing in a dusty Barhain, only 3 days, so it is harder than usual to draw conclusions

Mercedes needs to address it's problem before starting to improve their performance. Redbull was always good at inseason development and this time they will work on to improve a good car's performance without tyring to find out a problem.

I feel like this is due in part to Red Bull's tendency to start off very slowly at the beginning of the season. If they started much faster (e.g., 2018, 2019, 2020), they may not have clawed back as much performance over the season.

For what it's worth - not that it's a meaningful indicator - but WDC odds for VER and PER are shortening, whilst HAM/BOT are drifting, though HAM remains the bookie favourite for now.

[Kingshark]

I feel like this is due in part to Red Bull's tendency to start off very slowly at the beginning of the season. If they started much faster (e.g., 2018, 2019, 2020), they may not have clawed back as much performance over the season.

Red Bull did not start 2018 slow, they had the best chassis throughout the season, it was just severely comprimised by a very mediocre engine that was around 40 horsepower down on Mercedes and significantly more unreliable to boot.

For what it's worth - not that it's a meaningful indicator - but WDC odds for VER and PER are shortening, whilst HAM/BOT are drifting, though HAM remains the bookie favourite for now.

I just checked the bookies, and although Hamilton is the favourite for the WDC, interestingly Verstappen is the favourite for Bahrain.

I guess the bookies expect Mercedes to outdevelop Red Bull? idk

[the EDGE]

[
I just checked the bookies, and although Hamilton is the favourite for the WDC, interestingly Verstappen is the favourite for Bahrain.

I guess the bookies expect Mercedes to outdevelop Red Bull? idk

Bookies adjust odds on depending on how people bet

If there is suddenly a rush of people betting on Max to whim Bahrain then the odds will decrease

[Just_a_fan]

[
I just checked the bookies, and although Hamilton is the favourite for the WDC, interestingly Verstappen is the favourite for Bahrain.

I guess the bookies expect Mercedes to outdevelop Red Bull? idk

Bookies adjust odds on depending on how people bet

If there is suddenly a rush of people betting on Max to whim Bahrain then the odds will decrease

A lot of people don't realise this - bookies run a book and that gives odds based on where money is going. They don't predict what they think will be the outcome.

If something is popular then the odds shorten e.g. go from 5/1 to 3/1. This isn't because that outcome is more likely, it's because that outcome will cost them a lot of money if lots of people have bet on the longer odds. All a bookie does is publicly show where other people are betting their money. Outcomes with lots of bets have worse odds in order to protect the bookie from bankruptcy. Outcomes where no one is betting have long odds because if that outcome occurs, it won't cost the bookie too much to pay out.

Because people think that short odds are an indicator of likelihood, they bet on those odds more. This is how "the favourite" comes about. It's the favourite of the betters, not the bookies.

Those in the know bet early based on form etc., and bookies will also have an idea ahead of time where they think money will go. Bookies know that Hamilton will be considered to be the most likely winner of the title and so they start with odds set accordingly. After testing, those odds will change because people will have seen a poor performance from the Mercedes team and assume that Red Bull will dominate and therefore they will bet on Max. As more bets come in, the odds will shorten. Conversely, the odds on Hamilton will lengthen slightly. So initial odds are set based on past form - be that F1 or race horses - and then change as people place bets.

If every F1 fan went out and put £10 (or equivalent) on Tsunoda winning the title this year, his odds would shorten massively because the bookies could not afford to pay out to everyone at odds of 250/1 (just checked Sky Bet and that's his odds at this moment). Interestingly, Russell has better odds (100/1) than Alonso (150/1). Neither are very likely to win the title but obviously more people are putting money on Russell, hence his shorter odds.

[Vasconia]

Motorsport Spain disagree with FOM:

Equipo Distancia con el líder Piloto más rápido
Red Bull – Netherlands M. Verstappen
Mercedes 0,615 segundos United Kingdom L. Hamilton
Ferrari 0,851 Spain C. Sainz
McLaren 0,884 Australia D. Ricciardo
Aston Martin 1,350 Canada L. Stroll
Alpine 1,558 Spain F. Alonso
AlphaTauri 1,603 France P. Gasly
Alfa Romeo 2,056 Finland K. Raikkonen
Williams 2,407 United Kingdom G. Russell
Haas 3,671 Russian Federation N. Mazepin

Which sort of data is this? long runs, fastest laps?