2017 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, 24 - 26 March

[Phil]

AMuS seems to think Mercedes pace is already very impressive, especially their longrun pace of what they have shown so far. Times from the following article: http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... 49796.html

(Not gonna do a translation, just repost the average times they calculated and some of the info posted with it)

EDIT: Code-Tag seems to be broken, used Quotation instead.

Times represent the average of the longest stint on that particular tire.

1. Bottas - 1.28,170 - 8 - ultrasoft
2. Hamilton - 1.28,237 - 11 - ultrasoft
3. Sainz - 1.28,891 - 8 - ultrasoft
4. Räikkönen - 1.29,179 - 10 - ultrasoft
5. Kvyat - 1.29,524 - 8 - ultrasoft
6. Perez - 1.29,601 - 9 - ultrasoft
7. Ricciardo - 1.29,792 - 9 - ultrasoft
8. Grosjean - 1.29,812 - 11 - ultrasoft
9. Ocon - 1.29,883 - 11 - ultrasoft
10. Ericsson - 1.30,375 - 13 - ultrasoft
11. Vandoorne - 1.30,661 - 9 - ultrasoft
12. Stroll - 1.30,766 - 7 - ultrasoft
- - -
1. Bottas - 1.28,721 - 9 - supersoft
2. Vettel - 1.29,172 - 11 - supersoft
3. Sainz - 1.29,188 - 10 - supersoft
- - -
1. Perez - 1.29,761 - 6 - soft
2. Hülkenberg - 1.30,150 - 14 - soft
3. Wehrlein - 1.32,144 - 11 - soft

They note that Torro-Rosso looks quick, but they think Kyvats time might be more representative because Sainz may have been fueled relatively light. They also think that Bottas was a bit lighter than Hamilton too (I think referring to something the team [Mercedes] said when commenting that Lewis had very good long run pace).

[bauc]

God dam it, I just hope Ferrari did really had a balance issue for the 0.5 sec gap as I dont want another boring season ahead of us....
Also for the race, any chance of rain or something?

[godlameroso]

That pace is never sustained however, Lewis does 2 or 3 laps in the high 27's then trails off. It's hard to read how fast they are because last year we tried to judge cars by their long run pace in practice, and that figure was still wrong. For example we would have the Red Bulls have similar or slightly better race pace in practice and still be .7 seconds away come race day. We don't really know what kind of sustainable pace is available, but looks like the pattern from the last few years remains. Cars are on average about 5 seconds faster between race pace and full out qualifying, so if Hamilton is capable of 27's low 28's starting race pace, that would put pole in the 1:22's maybe a high 21, but I doubt it.

You can see all the lap times for yourself here
http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-o ... rmation-19

[FrukostScones]

AMuS seems to think Mercedes pace is already very impressive, especially their longrun pace of what they have shown so far. Times from the following article: http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... 49796.html

(Not gonna do a translation, just repost the average times they calculated and some of the info posted with it)

EDIT: Code-Tag seems to be broken, used Quotation instead.

Times represent the average of the longest stint on that particular tire.

1. Bottas - 1.28,170 - 8 - ultrasoft
2. Hamilton - 1.28,237 - 11 - ultrasoft
3. Sainz - 1.28,891 - 8 - ultrasoft
4. Räikkönen - 1.29,179 - 10 - ultrasoft
5. Kvyat - 1.29,524 - 8 - ultrasoft
6. Perez - 1.29,601 - 9 - ultrasoft
7. Ricciardo - 1.29,792 - 9 - ultrasoft
8. Grosjean - 1.29,812 - 11 - ultrasoft
9. Ocon - 1.29,883 - 11 - ultrasoft
10. Ericsson - 1.30,375 - 13 - ultrasoft
11. Vandoorne - 1.30,661 - 9 - ultrasoft
12. Stroll - 1.30,766 - 7 - ultrasoft
- - -
1. Bottas - 1.28,721 - 9 - supersoft
2. Vettel - 1.29,172 - 11 - supersoft
3. Sainz - 1.29,188 - 10 - supersoft
- - -
1. Perez - 1.29,761 - 6 - soft
2. Hülkenberg - 1.30,150 - 14 - soft
3. Wehrlein - 1.32,144 - 11 - soft

They note that Torro-Rosso looks quick, but they think Kyvats time might be more representative because Sainz may have been fueled relatively light. They also think that Bottas was a bit lighter than Hamilton too (I think referring to something the team [Mercedes] said when commenting that Lewis had very good long run pace).

HAM looked untouchable on the US,
while BOT seems to have problems with a heavy fueled Merc (4 wheel sliding, or was this HAM ). Also his times against VET didn't look very good IMO. Even if he was faster on a shorter stint, compared to HAM it was not good.
VET looked very reasonable on SS. could make them last. Hopefully very well fueled.
SAI looked pretty quick but if he really was much lighter then it is explained.
I still think TR could be a good "shocker".
If nothing special happens then it is HAM.... VET RIC VES BOT RAI vs the rest.

[godlameroso]

Another thing I found odd was that last year's pole time for each respective driver was beaten in free practice 2 this year. They're also on average about 3 seconds faster in race pace than they were last year as Hamilton and Rosberg had their pace in the 31's to 30's for most of the race, where this year they're in the 28's and 27's. 28's was a similar pace on low fuel in 2010 so that's about right for my prediction of 2017 being similar in pace to 2010.

[Artur Craft]

I think Schumacher's 1'24.125 race lap record will fall too, maybe only by a tenth or two but I think some drivers will have a crack at it if the opportunity arises.

I highly doubt it at this point. Hamilton, who was lapping 1s faster than RB and Ferrari, was doing a best of 1.27.5 on his race sim.

I'm guessing pole will be a 1:20

Which sounds utterly insane. In a good way, that is.

If that's what it's gonna be, then they still have a long way to go

[SectorOne]

It all depends on when you slap on the last set of tires.

[Moose]

I think Schumacher's 1'24.125 race lap record will fall too, maybe only by a tenth or two but I think some drivers will have a crack at it if the opportunity arises.

I highly doubt it at this point. Hamilton, who was lapping 1s faster than RB and Ferrari, was doing a best of 1.27.5 on his race sim.

His high fuel race sim. Typically the cars are ~3-4 seconds faster at the end of the race. It'll be close if it does fall though.

[Just_a_fan]

Outright lap records are difficult to chase when you have e to keep the engine for 5 races. If the current engines​ were 350km specials like then, we might be pleasantly surprised.

[dans79]

Outright lap records are difficult to chase when you have e to keep the engine for 5 races. If the current engines​ were 350km specials like then, we might be pleasantly surprised.

I think we should go back to that, as it would not surprise me at all to find out the at all the R&D to make them last as long as they do now, is actually making them incredibly expensive. We'd probably see quali times in the teens as well.

[godlameroso]

The fact that cars lose 100kg and not 150, means that race pace only improves by 2 seconds, 3 seconds MAX. Not to mention those 100kg are less of the overall mass of the cars than they were in the v8 era of 630kg cars. Compare that to today's 722kg cars.

[shady]

728*

[bosanac1]

Well at least the mid pack racing will be crazy competitive.


The front not so much, Lewis will be scary this season.


I expected Ferrari to be better agh, what was winter testing done with low fuel running?

[DVB]

Ive read that Vettel was backing off on his fast laps again... So they should be possible to go faster.

About the long run there isnt much to say about it. Mercedes seems to be having the advantage. But!, I remember Arrivibene saying that they run with more fuel in practice sessions....

[dans79]

Ive read that Vettel was backing off on his fast laps again... So they should be possible to go faster.

About the long run there isnt much to say about it. Mercedes seems to be having the advantage. But!, I remember Arrivibene saying that they run with more fuel in practice sessions....

He didn't back off on his fastest lap of the day. However on his previous attempt he had to back off in the last 3 corners because he caught a slower car. The lap he backed off on, was on par with his fastest lap, so the times are pretty representative. What we don't know is who is still holding something in reserve, P3 should be more telling.