Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[gruntguru]

The cost of hydrogen is not an issue. The Toyota Mirai carries 5kg. Green hydrogen currently costs about $4.00/kg but the goal is to get the cost down to $2.00/kg. Green hydrogen will eventually be produced using surplus renewable electricity. You know - the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow - so we need more generation capacity than we can use.

That certainly does work, but it's more effective & efficient just to use that electricity to charge a battery instead of all those extra steps.

I used to think so too, but lately they are talking much higher electrolysis efficiencies and fuel-cell electric vehicles which give you much higher conversion efficiency and all the regen advantages compared to Hydrogen ICE.

[djos]

You mean "The industry" minus Toyota.

Even they have begrudgingly started investing in BEV's after wasting years on HEV's.
https://electrek.co/2021/09/09/toyota-i ... yone-else/

They have to - HEV refuelling infrastructure, the avaiability of cheap H2, fine tuning of refuelling hardware, and storage (both bulk and onboard) are all immature and miles behind BEV. There is every possibility HEV will become competitive at some point - especially so in the heavy vehicle arena (ask Mercedes Benz)

Heavy vehicles I agree with, but both have been focusing on passenger vehicles for the most part.

[gruntguru]

I stumbled across this 6 year old video today on HEV’s vs BEV’s.
Frankly if it was this obvious 6 years ago that HEV’s weren’t ideal for passenger vehicles, it makes me wonder why Toyota and Hyundai have poured so much money into HEV’s.

I used to think along the lines in that video. I will go look for something more up to date but in the meantime think about this:

The Toyota Mirai travels 650 km on 5kg of hydrogen. That is $10 worth of blue hydrogen at cost and $20 of green hydrogen at current cost price. Lets say green hydrogen gets to $2 as forecast and retails for $4/kg. That still comes to about 3c/km fuel cost. That's miles better than the scenario presented in the video! I noticed he compared to BEV "with regen braking" but no mention of regen for the HEV - why not? Regen only requires the addition of a small battery or ultra cap.

BEV will win this race IF:
Batteries get lighter
Batteries get cheaper
Batteries last longer
Batteries can be recycled to recover any unsustainable materials.

Its all about the battery.

[djos]

Hydrogen vehicles are inherently more complex, more expensive and less efficient, that’s not going to change anytime soon.

And if it does improve it’ll be too late.

Even in South Korea which is heavily backing hydrogen as a country, the experience isn’t great and many customers are unhappy with the ownership experience and depreciation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -dominance

[Stu]

I stumbled across this 6 year old video today on HEV’s vs BEV’s.
Frankly if it was this obvious 6 years ago that HEV’s weren’t ideal for passenger vehicles, it makes me wonder why Toyota and Hyundai have poured so much money into HEV’s.

I used to think along the lines in that video. I will go look for something more up to date but in the meantime think about this:

The Toyota Mirai travels 650 km on 5kg of hydrogen. That is $10 worth of blue hydrogen at cost and $20 of green hydrogen at current cost price. Lets say green hydrogen gets to $2 as forecast and retails for $4/kg. That still comes to about 3c/km fuel cost. That's miles better than the scenario presented in the video! I noticed he compared to BEV "with regen braking" but no mention of regen for the HEV - why not? Regen only requires the addition of a small battery or ultra cap.

BEV will win this race IF:
Batteries get lighter
Batteries get cheaper
Batteries last longer
Batteries can be recycled to recover any unsustainable materials.

Its all about the battery.

Lighter, cheaper, longer-lasting. Pick any two!!

It is indeed all about the battery.

The energy industry is talking about both Hydrogen and Bio-ethanol creation from surplus renewable energy (which becomes the power store, or if you prefer, battery).

The automotive industry can only work in conjunction with what the energy industry provides.
It could be that pure BEV is a stepping-stone to either Fuel Cells (most likely for long range mass-transit & freight -whether by air, sea, road or rail) and a mix of pure BEV and HEV (using bio-ethanol) for individual transport.
This results in lower infrastructure expenditure (as it is already mostly in place - just the hydrogen to be sorted, but by its nature that would be ‘transit hub’ based), and a global solution.

[djos]

I think BEV’s have won the war for passenger cars already, fuel cell vehicles will most likely dominate the heavy vehicle industry and maybe even mass air transport.

It’s imo a bit like diesel Vs petrol (excluding locations that made it competitive via taxation), diesel is just not very attractive for regular passenger vehicles due to higher maintenance costs, shorter maintenance intervals etc.

[Jolle]

I think BEV’s have won the war for passenger cars already, fuel cell vehicles will most likely dominate the heavy vehicle industry and maybe even mass air transport.

It’s imo a bit like diesel Vs petrol (excluding locations that made it competitive via taxation), diesel is just not very attractive for regular passenger vehicles due to higher maintenance costs, shorter maintenance intervals etc.

In Europe Diesel is/was used a lot in regular passenger cars because it’s cheaper, longer service intervals and longer lifespan. It only got hold back slighy because of higher road taxes. If you drive more then 15.000 - 20.000 km a year, get a diesel.

[djos]

Yes that’s true, but only because petrol was taxed to the point that diesel was made more attractive

[Andres125sx]

Gaussin H2, first hydrogen electric racing truck, ready for Dakar 2022

[Andres125sx]

Audi electric car for Dakar 2022, but with an ICE to feed the battery

[J.A.W.]

I note that Harley-Davidson has now sold down its E-bike business, via a SPAC* deal,
so with even a maker of mainly overweight/short-ranged/expensive motorcycles
having difficulty getting this business model to 'fly'...


* https://www.theverge.com/21502700/spac- ... on-company

[DChemTech]

I note that Harley-Davidson has now sold down its E-bike business, via a SPAC* deal,
so with even a maker of mainly overweight/short-ranged/expensive motorcycles
having difficulty getting this business model to 'fly'...


* https://www.theverge.com/21502700/spac- ... on-company

Isnt the businessmodel of HD making obnoxiously loud midlife crisis material? I can see how that does not work with EV without any reference to electric performance

[Jolle]

I note that Harley-Davidson has now sold down its E-bike business, via a SPAC* deal,
so with even a maker of mainly overweight/short-ranged/expensive motorcycles
having difficulty getting this business model to 'fly'...


* https://www.theverge.com/21502700/spac- ... on-company

Isnt the businessmodel of HD making obnoxiously loud midlife crisis material? I can see how that does not work with EV without any reference to electric performance

yeah, I think you can't find a more technical conservative consumer group then HD riders

[djos]

Last I checked, HD owners all threw their toys out of the pram a few years ago when HD dared to modernise their ancient vibrating mess of an engine.

[J.A.W.]

I note that Harley-Davidson has now sold down its E-bike business, via a SPAC* deal,
so with even a maker of mainly overweight/short-ranged/expensive motorcycles
having difficulty getting this business model to 'fly'...


* https://www.theverge.com/21502700/spac- ... on-company

Isnt the businessmodel of HD making obnoxiously loud midlife crisis material? I can see how that does not work with EV without any reference to electric performance

If by "loud", you meant in the metaphorical sense - as a luridly coloured/floridly patterned shirt may be,
then sure ok - its a given that a flashy pose-value is part of the H-D 'aura', & one which is difficult to
emulate with an EV - & the same goes for the "potato-potato" aural/viseral effects.

(On the showroom floor, these machines have to meet regular sound limit legislation, even if a %
of owners will then make changes to allow for a louder level of 'noisome' exhaust emission).

However, the essential similarities* of H-D/EV bikes other than these two issues might've been
expected to provide a 'bridge' - even if it has turned out to be 'a bridge too far' - at this time..

*Plus points such as 'road presence', a 'punchy' torque delivery, pose time spent parked up in group
array outside refreshment facilities, as well as the characteristics I'd listed in my previous post,
(heavy/costly/short-ranged).