Mercedes AMG F1 W03 (pre-launch speculation)

[dren]

Several scenarios pointed out:

1. Mercedes has an innovation they don't want to leak out early
2. Willis showed up and caused a redesign
3. Brawn really thinks there is more to ultimately gain through development by giving up some testing time.

All of these are plausable ideas. On the bright side, the reliabilty issues shouldn't show up again. Especially if the systems are similar to last year's car. Also, the upgrades introduced through the season for the W02 all worked as designed. So, we can say that we expect the car to hit the second test running with few if any reliabilty issues while delivering the designed/expected performance.

Let's just hope the expected performance is good enough to compete.

[NonNewtonic]

I don't get it why you people are debating such a ridiculous topic?! What so wrong launching the car later? The launching date doesn't reflect the performance of the car! Even though teams who launched their car before the first test will not able to run the full race spec of the car. What they are doing is evaluating the tyres, gear ratio, reliability that's all. And I would say that the W02 is never a dog car! There is potential in it is just that Mercedes didn't really manage to exploit it. Basically Mercedes didn't really introduce much upgrades to the car look at the front wings its basically the front wing they've used for the past 3 seasons! But I would also be a little bit realistic to say that Mercedes may be closer to the front pack but they would not have the ability to win races maybe a few podiums for the next season. But really guys cmmon stop fighting on this topic anymore no point debating here and guessing on fact that we don't really know only those people in the factory knows what are they doing.

[elf341]

BBC Article from 2nd Feb 2010 (1st Test @ Valencia): Red Bull happy with later launch of new F1 car

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner believes his team's new car will be faster for missing the first round of F1 testing in Valencia.

"It's a better strategy to maximise development time. It's an aggressive approach." said Horner.

"The main thinking was, as we did last year, to give Adrian Newey and our designers as much research and development time as possible"

I also note that they didn't even turn up at the test with an RB5, so are we to expect Mercedes not turn up at all?

[dren]

From the MercedesGP website: http://mercedesgp-fans.com/web/2011/12/ ... -february/

"Two weeks more or less is in this respect very much time, with a base car you can test more, but if you want to take big steps then it is better to give the team more time to develop the new car, said Norbert."

"It was a conscious decision by Ross Brawn and Bob Bell to delay the car, Team CEO Nick Fry reviled. In this
way the team can devote more time to improve the performance. 2012 is of special importance, because between
the three winter tests are two-week breaks. In addition, the FIA ​​said that for the first time the crash tests have to be completed before the cars first test. Until now, the crash tests have been conducted in parallel with the test program until the start of the season.
“We also have a very good simulator now said Fry. “We can assure you that the cars heart and kidney have been well tested in the simulator in time for the first test in Barcelona. Also we proved in 2009 that with limited testing we can produce a good car.” The extra time we invest in the development of the aerodynamics is better than the early testing in Spain, Fry Concluded."

[aral]

I believe that Merc are hiding something.
They're delaying the launch to a point where the other teams won't be able to copy their idea in time for the first race.

Here we go again! This has been said for each of the last two years, but both years there were no innovations. Simply put, they are not bringing the car to the first test as they do not expect it to be ready.
If they had some miraculous innovation, it would be in their interest to get maximum testing of any such trick.

[xpensive]

Come now gil, there were certainly "innovaions" on W01 and W02, though I'm not certain if anyone would try to copy the split air-box, the mysterious cooling system or the funny xhausts, but we hope for a new dawn now, do we not?

[Mr.S]

BBC Article from 2nd Feb 2010 (1st Test @ Valencia): Red Bull happy with later launch of new F1 car

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner believes his team's new car will be faster for missing the first round of F1 testing in Valencia.

"It's a better strategy to maximise development time. It's an aggressive approach." said Horner.

"The main thinking was, as we did last year, to give Adrian Newey and our designers as much research and development time as possible"

I also note that they didn't even turn up at the test with an RB5, so are we to expect Mercedes not turn up at all?

There were 4 tests. Now there are 3. That & RB5 was a championship contender. Fastest car in the 2nd half of the season,won plenty of races. Had to be developed till the last race. What is the excuse for Mercedes.

Besides do you believe Mercedes will actually come up with something good???

[Mr.S]

Several scenarios pointed out:

1. Mercedes has an innovation they don't want to leak out early
2. Willis showed up and caused a redesign
3. Brawn really thinks there is more to ultimately gain through development by giving up some testing time.

All of these are plausable ideas. On the bright side, the reliabilty issues shouldn't show up again. Especially if the systems are similar to last year's car. Also, the upgrades introduced through the season for the W02 all worked as designed. So, we can say that we expect the car to hit the second test running with few if any reliabilty issues while delivering the designed/expected performance.

Let's just hope the expected performance is good enough to compete.

There were no upgrades. They just changed their exhaust which they should have changed in pre-season testing & fitted the Mark 3 wing they tested in Barcelona.

[Mr.S]

Do you really for 1 second believe that 1 or 2 week of developing the car in the factory gives more than 4 Precious days of Testing. 4 Unlimited days of testing

Console yourself with the thought that the RB6 was also late.

I replied that RB6 was designed by NEWEY. It was an evolution from RB5 which was the fastest car in the 2nd half of the season,won multiple races & had to developed till the final race. So I can atleast understand the delay.

@ DREN + NEWTON -> Newton,car was a dog. They maximized every ounce of it & could not come within 1s off pole. Getting beaten by Torro Rosso & Sauber means the car is a a dog. Even worse than W01.

Dren, I find Fry's logic amusing. Anyways Fry is a show-piece & should have gotten the boot a long time back. Simulator is a joke,a joke when compared to actual real life testing. Simulation is a virtual world & nothing can substitue real experiences.

Unless Willis comes up with a killer last bit idea,this decision in unprofessional. I dont want another dud.

[aral]

Come now gil, there were certainly "innovaions" on W01 and W02, though I'm not certain if anyone would try to copy the split air-box, the mysterious cooling system or the funny xhausts, but we hope for a new dawn now, do we not?

It's not Merc that i am getting at, but the posters on this site who are continually clutching at straws. As others have also said, each year we are told by the disillusioned, that Merc have this, Merc have that, expect fantastic revelations etc. Then what happens? Nothing!

[marcush.]

I don't get it why you people are debating such a ridiculous topic?! What so wrong launching the car later? The launching date doesn't reflect the performance of the car! Even though teams who launched their car before the first test will not able to run the full race spec of the car. What they are doing is evaluating the tyres, gear ratio, reliability that's all. And I would say that the W02 is never a dog car! There is potential in it is just that Mercedes didn't really manage to exploit it. Basically Mercedes didn't really introduce much upgrades to the car look at the front wings its basically the front wing they've used for the past 3 seasons! But I would also be a little bit realistic to say that Mercedes may be closer to the front pack but they would not have the ability to win races maybe a few podiums for the next season. But really guys cmmon stop fighting on this topic anymore no point debating here and guessing on fact that we don't really know only those people in the factory knows what are they doing.

you are answering it all in your own post.Mercedes was unable to exploit the potential of W01 and w02 -WHY ? simply said -they were always late with their development -trying to get the car into iits definite configuration when others were already on track and using more of the potential avaialable.

Even more Mercedes did not manage the second year in a row to close the gap to the front runners.

So to delay your car will put you in the same position as every year .You are on the backfoot with understanding what you got.
You have less time to react if something does not work as expected and countermeasures are needed.
There is NO advanatge in being late .IF you know you have a killer concept and have potential to drive circles around your competitors yes you can afford to debut your car late ..or when your fabricating recourcces are limited you may be forced to belate .But in Mercedes case it´s just a impossible scenario.They have
recruited massively last summer ,also temporary workforce and still the car is coming late after again starting EARLY with next years car...If they are that slow they need a second team and alternate responsibilities -as I understand that´s a concept followed by some teams already.

[Adamski]

First of all, I think everybody needs to ask himself:

"How much time I tested with Formula 1 teams in the last two seasons?"

If there's not much time, then how the hell someone knows, that 3 test is much-much less, than 4.
Of course, it's very few compared to unlimited testing times.

And it's true, that if you have a really-really bad car, that has fundamental problems from the designs point of view, than you will have some bad moments...

But in this case, even with unlimited testing you are nowhere.

Maximizing the potential of possible testing time is a key factor now. And find the best balance between developing and testing time is also fundamental.

Last year, McLaren can't complete in testing a normal race distance. In Melbourne, they were already second fastest.

So it's too easy to say that they are choose the wrong path. We don't know, time will tell, until then we have to wait. But I bet it's more a tactical, a strategical step, then simply can't met with their times.

[xpensive]

To my mind marcush, things can go either way here, while my newly found positive aproach tells me that a basic structure with Bob Bell, coupled with an aerodynamic inpjection from Willis could work wonders and we will see the team metamorphosing.

But on the other hand, my hard-earnend and somewhat negativistic nature tells me otherwise.

[dren]

Several scenarios pointed out:

1. Mercedes has an innovation they don't want to leak out early
2. Willis showed up and caused a redesign
3. Brawn really thinks there is more to ultimately gain through development by giving up some testing time.

All of these are plausable ideas. On the bright side, the reliabilty issues shouldn't show up again. Especially if the systems are similar to last year's car. Also, the upgrades introduced through the season for the W02 all worked as designed. So, we can say that we expect the car to hit the second test running with few if any reliabilty issues while delivering the designed/expected performance.

Let's just hope the expected performance is good enough to compete.

There were no upgrades. They just changed their exhaust which they should have changed in pre-season testing & fitted the Mark 3 wing they tested in Barcelona.

There were quite a bit of fixes and upgrades. They had little bits and pieces for many races. A big exhaust upgrade. There were upgrades in the cooling department, which was holding the car back performance wise. Brawn stated they found a good amount of time in the car over the season. Said it would have won races if they started the season with the car they finished with.

[dren]

Dren, I find Fry's logic amusing. Anyways Fry is a show-piece & should have gotten the boot a long time back. Simulator is a joke,a joke when compared to actual real life testing. Simulation is a virtual world & nothing can substitue real experiences.

Unless Willis comes up with a killer last bit idea,this decision in unprofessional. I dont want another dud.

I agree about Fry. But he must be of some use if he is still around. He does better when behind the scenes.

Sure, nothing can substitute real life experiences, but when on track performance is validating simulator numbers, things are looking good. The set-up for an F1 car is almost all done with the simulator before a race weekend. The window for driver/engineer set-up changes is pretty small.

The simulator isn't a win all, but there is a reason why teams invest heavily in them.