2016 Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team - Mercedes

[dans79]

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What state of mind problems? He had Lewis at the start of the last two races, and barring the unforseen and the unfortunate, would have likely gone on to win. Nico is simply experiencing some overdue bad luck.

I'm not sure I would agree with that, he definitely has some kind of confidence issue to deal with.

https://youtu.be/dtrOv7k--7k?t=1m31s

If not I just need to accept I will be behind him

https://youtu.be/XFiEIFsRu9A?t=25s

I have to try, otherwise I accept I'm behind Lewis, or i go around the outside.

he seems to have no confidence in his ability to get past Lewis, if he doesn't within the first few turns.

[Wynters]

Unlike in 2014, this year Rosberg is simply unable to out do Lewis in qualifying.

Hamilton was clear in Australia and Barcelona but less than 1/10th in Bahrain and here. Quali has always been nip and tuck between them and, whilst Hamilton had an edge last year, there's no reason for Rosberg to believe that Hamilton will have kept that edge in a different iteration of the car. Yes, ahead is ahead, but it's such a small sample size to draw a definite conclusion from. I don't think Rosberg is too concerned about Ferrari challenging him yet and, if they are challenging him, then are challenging Hamilton too (I could easily be wrong though).

he himself doesn't have a great deal of self belief that, he has advantage and he can nail that home.

It's very hard for me to accurately empathise with a driver at the tip of F1 but I think that there should be two scenarios (broadly speaking).

1) Rosberg believes that he is faster than Hamilton. This would give him the confidence to push every race because he is confident that he's fast enough to beat Hamilton. If he gambles and it doesn't work then he'll make up the points lost elsewhere.
2) Rosberg believes that he is slower than Hamilton. In which case, having capitalised brilliantly on Hamilton's issues up until Monaco, he should play conservatively and maximise his points gains knowing that, even when Hamilton is on song, there will be opportunities for race wins throughout the season and he only needs a handful.

It's more than possible that Rosberg does believe himself to be quicker. The six races leading up to Barcelona would support that and he was ahead in Barcelona (having burned his team mate around the outside). If he'd remembered to change engine modes then race win number seven was in his hands and there's every reason for him to believe that. Lead stretches to 50 points, the cracks Hamilton had begun to show become bigger, discontent continues to leak into the media and none of it touches Rosberg.

Then comes Monaco, Rosberg ahead again...but he can't make the rubber work and the team orders him to move over. The should he/shouldn't he discussion is impossible to have outside of the team because we have no idea of the factors involved. What is unarguable is that Hamilton nailed the conditions and Rosberg didn't. But, it was one race on a one-off track in rare wet conditions. Monaco is important to Rosberg but I think a sportsman at his level should be able to shrug off an occurrence like that.

That's one race of the last eight. Yes, his lead dropped alarmingly but he was still in a very powerful position. He knows Hamilton is strong in Canada but he was only a fraction off him in Quali. Race start and he knows Hamilton will struggle on the start, knows that's his best chance of overtaking, goes for it... He's bound to have planned out that scenario in his head before hand, so he'd clearly decided that he'd hang it out there and see what happens. I can't imagine doing that if he thought that he was likely to be earning less points than Hamilton over the remaining course of the season.

All of this is purely speculation based on my own experiences, whilst I can't imagine it I'm fascinated to know what the rest of you think Rosberg's reasoning was?

It seemed like, he went with DRS open for slightly longer in Canada when he spun on the penultimate lap.

I think it was more that he put his left rear on the white line just as he hit the brakes but it could be either or a combination. What ever the cause, he was clearly pushing hard so he clearly wanted every possible point available ... which seems at odds with gambling at T1 with the stakes so large.

I am sure that, Mercedes' hesitation to given him 3 year extension, which to me is a nonsense, would have definitely made him concerned and that to any driver in his position would have been confidence denting.

Contract speculation is incredibly difficult because we have such little idea what the two negotiating positions are. I do wonder if either Mercedes driver would be willing to defy a direct and repeated team order during the race (Vettel style).

[Phil]

Perhaps the 'state of mind' that over all seasons where they have been teamed up as team-mates, Lewis has prevailed head-to-head? And that 2016 might turn out like 2014 where, arguably, he has driven his strongest, leading the championship for pretty much most of it, only to lose it in the end? I call that "momentum". Momentum can lead to more self-believe, perhaps that 'edge' that makes you perform just that tiny bit better. And with a lead of 43 points, to see that crumble to just 9 within 2 races must have some impact. What is also, is that Lewis is pretty much on it in qualifying too - beating him in all of the sessions where he did not face any technical issues.

IMO - I am still waiting to see how both Nico and Hamilton perform in a race where they both end up behind each other in a normal straight head-to-head race. We've only had it in qualifying so far this year, but never in the race. In the first 4 races, Nico had relatively easy wins. Barcelona, they took each other out. Monaco, Nico was handicapped (by himself?). Canada, another corner 1 incident meant that one of them ended up way down the order. We are still waiting for that gloves-off-battle. It would give us a much better understanding on where they both are in race pace to one another.

And it would also give us some insight how Mercedes deals with it. Driver ahead will surely get the pit-stop priority, but with this years 3 tire rule, there is some scope of strategic element. How far will the team go to give the driver behind a good chance on strategy to end up ahead? What if Rosberg is behind? What if it's Hamilton? All very fascinating questions, to yet we still have no clue because it hasn't happened yet.

If qualifying is any reference, they are both very close. But historically, the races have been less close at times. In 2014, Lewis seemed to have an edge with the fuel. 2015 it was closer, but strategy usually limited the driver behind. What will 2016 provide?

[Wynters]

Double-post, please delete

[Wynters]

he seems to have no confidence in his ability to get past Lewis, if he doesn't within the first few turns.

Interesting, that's not the first time he's referenced Barcelona in this context. It just seems like an over-simplification. Speeds are different, corner angle and exit are different. Hmm, interesting.

I don't disagree with his comments about not being able to pass later in the race. I'm not sure Hamilton would disagree either (although he might not say so in public). You have to be noticeably faster to pass and, when you are both in the same car and both close in speed as drivers (and both have laid down markers about being ruthless when it comes to getting their elbows out) I'm not sure when either driver would get a solid chance to pass on track unless there are rare conditions. When was the last time Hamilton passed Rosberg 'in anger' after the first lap?

[dans79]

I don't disagree with his comments about not being able to pass later in the race. I'm not sure Hamilton would disagree either (although he might not say so in public).

I would say this season it's more likely you can get buy, because of the tire warm-up issues, and knowing roughly what your team mates strategy options are. Jumping someone in the pits seems much easier this year than in years past.

[Phil]

Ahh! No need to apologize mate, I've debated with you enough to know you didn't mean to be aggressive.

Thanks! It was a bit of fustration showing through after I think iotar already brought up that particular race a couple of times...

My only point is that if you want to be a World Driver's Champion, sometimes you must be a rebel, a ruthless selfish individual to prosper and while Rosberg was a complete gentleman in letting Hamilton go and doing the right thing for those 600+ employees, he's handed the momentum back to Hamilton and that's the most dangerous thing to do. Personally, the points gap is never going to be a fuss considering how dominant the Mercedes is and how enormous Lewis' talent is. The fuss is going to be the mindset, the confidence and the morale and I'm convinced that after the qualifying in Monaco, Lewis was very very downbeat. His frustration had begun showing and that's the time to drive him further into the ground.

As for a new Mercedes-Benz contract? I think Nico is a wealthy man, plus I have no doubt that if he were let go by them, Rosberg would be very very attractive to the likes of Ferrari and Renault (both works teams). Also, judging from your posts, you seem to be a veteran who's followed the sport for donkey's years and after three years of being beaten by Lewis, a fourth in progress, a fresh challenge might be just what Rosberg needs! The biggest draw for me to believe he should have said 'no' was the fact that I believe (like most people) that when the Monaco race began, this was probably the year Rosberg could be WDC. I frankly don't see him doing it any more, at least not at Mercedes.

I agree completely, in fact you're spot on. I think I've said pretty much the same in the Mercedes team thread earlier, post Barcelona. That move he pulled off there, was dangerous, wrong and ruthless. In fact, IMO worthy of a disqualification (because he was handicapped by the wrong mode and in such a circumstance, pulling off a blocking move is a big no-go). And yet, it was brilliant, decisive, necessary. It, together with other moves Rosberg pulled off this year, like in Australia when he pushed him wide and off the track, cemented him in my eyes as this years WDC. With that 43 point lead, then that ruthless maneuver in Barcelona, he achieved a couple of things. He kept the gap as is and therefore made it even more difficult to close on paper, but even more importantly, he sent a key message to Lewis that he will not yield and will rigorously defend his position.

How quickly it all changed. As you say, moving over in Monaco was a big no-go from his point of view. But you know what? I think the damage was done regardless if he had let Hamilton pass or not. Monaco is his race and already last year, Hamilton showed incredible pace, on a track where Rosberg historically always has been very strong. Then in those conditions, fighting with the car, the walls, prospect of binning it and suffering a DNF and losing 18 points to Hamilton? I think it can be quite scary having to drive a car like that. Even scarier when you then have Hamilton right on your gearbox, trying to attack at every moment, oozing with confidence in those conditions. The order just cemented the worst-possible-outcome for him - having to let him go, then watching Hamilton to go on and win the race. In his mind at that point, he was still counting on a 3rd place to Hamiltons 2nd, a 3 point decrease. Peanuts. If only it did...

Unfortunately for Rosberg, Monaco was a lose-lose for him given those circumstances. If he had not let Hamilton pass, I think the repercussion would have been big. From one from Toto, but more importantly, by the very own team that fought hard to get the best possible result. Who knows what effect that would have had in the long run, over the course of a season? We've already seen in 2014 what kind of momentum shift that crash in Spa caused...

And F1, beyond anything, is always a team-sport. You win and lose with them. So who knows, maybe it's not all that bad. He scored some good points with Mercedes that day (Zetsche said so something post Monaco race) that might also have helped with the driver-contract his after. And dare I say, Rosberg is good enough to take the fight to Hamilton. If he weren't, he wouldn't have had those 7 wins in succession coming from last year, he wouldn't have nearly won 2014 and not have contested as closely as he did in 2015. I do believe Hamilton is that tiny bit better on average, but there's more to a driver than just raw talent. And given there's not much in it, I think this season is still right open for both to contest for. And at any time, a DNF for either could change the dynamics, the momentum again.

[flickerf1]

Toto is saying Merc will have a new aero package around the time of the British Grand Prix: http://m.crash.net/f1/news/231259/1/nec ... ssure.html

[Schuttelberg]

Ahh! No need to apologize mate, I've debated with you enough to know you didn't mean to be aggressive.

Thanks! It was a bit of fustration showing through after I think iotar already brought up that particular race a couple of times...

And F1, beyond anything, is always a team-sport. You win and lose with them. So who knows, maybe it's not all that bad. He scored some good points with Mercedes that day (Zetsche said so something post Monaco race) that might also have helped with the driver-contract his after. And dare I say, Rosberg is good enough to take the fight to Hamilton. If he weren't, he wouldn't have had those 7 wins in succession coming from last year, he wouldn't have nearly won 2014 and not have contested as closely as he did in 2015. I do believe Hamilton is that tiny bit better on average, but there's more to a driver than just raw talent. And given there's not much in it, I think this season is still right open for both to contest for. And at any time, a DNF for either could change the dynamics, the momentum again.

You're welcome mate!

I think we're mostly in the same boat and saying the same things. The paradox actually lies within F1 where your teammate is your biggest rival.

I respect your opinion and while you think that Hamilton is slightly better on average I feel the gap is a tad wider. I also feel, the law of averages are going to catch up with Rosberg and he will have a few mechanical gremlins. The reason I hold Lewis much higher than Nico is because in that Mercedes, Hamilton's bad days are going to be few and far in between and I expect him to maximize those weekends while when Nico has a good weekend, Lewis still harries him and on his poor weekends he's just nowhere. For me, it will be intriguing to see how much Ferrari and Red Bull can compete with Mercedes. In the earlier years, the gap was so big that even on weekends where Rosberg suffered, 3rd was a minimum, things may not be so straight forward if the current trend continues.

Personally, it's Hamilton's title to lose and I don't expect Rosberg to be much of a bother. Can Vettel bother Lewis though? That could well be a more even contest.

[skoop]

Ahh! No need to apologize mate, I've debated with you enough to know you didn't mean to be aggressive.

Thanks! It was a bit of fustration showing through after I think iotar already brought up that particular race a couple of times...

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And F1, beyond anything, is always a team-sport. You win and lose with them. So who knows, maybe it's not all that bad. He scored some good points with Mercedes that day (Zetsche said so something post Monaco race) that might also have helped with the driver-contract his after. And dare I say, Rosberg is good enough to take the fight to Hamilton. If he weren't, he wouldn't have had those 7 wins in succession coming from last year, he wouldn't have nearly won 2014 and not have contested as closely as he did in 2015. I do believe Hamilton is that tiny bit better on average, but there's more to a driver than just raw talent. And given there's not much in it, I think this season is still right open for both to contest for. And at any time, a DNF for either could change the dynamics, the momentum again.

He was only close to winning those championships because of the double points rule and technical difficulties for Hamilton. One they evened out, Lewis was comfortably ahead

[Phil]

Yes, yes, yes I know all that. And still, he was in contention right up until the last race with a mere 17 point lap.

It was clear to me at least that the technical glitches that Hamilton suffered did make the race a lot closer than it needed to be. What however has always impressed me about Rosberg is how close he is in qualifying. In 2014, we've seen Lewis make mistakes under pressure. 2015 he outqualified Nico at most races, but the difference between the two was extremely close more often than not. IMO, this shows how good he is. I'm not going to put it past him to win this years WDC just yet. And circumstance can be quite powerful and shift momentum in either drivers favor. 3 races ago, the gap was a mighty 43 points. It could happen again, you never know who might be dealt another DNF or technical hurdle, a bad race. As the season progresses, the stakes grow higher and any technical issue or bad performance, bad race, bad luck could lead to a potentially advantageous position for either.

Also, the most important point of all: You don't have to be better to win a WDC. Didn't Nico nearly prove that in 2014, having just about half the wins of Lewis throughout the season but finding himself with only a 17 point gap going into the last race? If that last technical issue had been on Lewis car, instead of Rosbergs, that championship would have been in different hands, double points finale or not.

[Schuttelberg]

Yes, yes, yes I know all that. And still, he was in contention right up until the last race with a mere 17 point lap.

It was clear to me at least that the technical glitches that Hamilton suffered did make the race a lot closer than it needed to be. What however has always impressed me about Rosberg is how close he is in qualifying. In 2014, we've seen Lewis make mistakes under pressure. 2015 he outqualified Nico at most races, but the difference between the two was extremely close more often than not. IMO, this shows how good he is. I'm not going to put it past him to win this years WDC just yet. And circumstance can be quite powerful and shift momentum in either drivers favor. 3 races ago, the gap was a mighty 43 points. It could happen again, you never know who might be dealt another DNF or technical hurdle, a bad race. As the season progresses, the stakes grow higher and any technical issue or bad performance, bad race, bad luck could lead to a potentially advantageous position for either.

Also, the most important point of all: You don't have to be better to win a WDC. Didn't Nico nearly prove that in 2014, having just about half the wins of Lewis throughout the season but finding himself with only a 17 point gap going into the last race? If that last technical issue had been on Lewis car, instead of Rosbergs, that championship would have been in different hands, double points finale or not.

We all have our opinions isn't it? Let's wait and see what the future holds. I'm predicting a straight forward WDC for Hamilton and a real battle on our hands between the Ferrari and the RBR!

[Phil]

Don't worry, I'm praying for a straight forward, uncomplicated, tension-less 4th WDC too. I fear my nerves will not cope with another 2014.

But in all honesty, I do think that Rosberg time and time again is being severely under valued by many. To be that close to Hamilton I think is quite a feat in itself. For instance, when he was teamed up with Button, I never for a second felt that Button had the raw pace of Hamilton. He might have had some stellar wins and stellar performances, but not one where I felt they were head-to-head. Not like what we saw way back in 2007 when he was teamed up with Alonso. And at times, Rosberg and Hamilton have been that close throughout many races at Mercedes so far. The dominant car allowing a 2-tier race might have helped and exaggerated that effect though.

[Schuttelberg]

Don't worry, I'm praying for a straight forward, uncomplicated, tension-less 4th WDC too. I fear my nerves will not cope with another 2014.

But in all honesty, I do think that Rosberg time and time again is being severely under valued by many. To be that close to Hamilton I think is quite a feat in itself. For instance, when he was teamed up with Button, I never for a second felt that Button had the raw pace of Hamilton. He might have had some stellar wins and stellar performances, but not one where I felt they were head-to-head. Not like what we saw way back in 2007 when he was teamed up with Alonso. And at times, Rosberg and Hamilton have been that close throughout many races at Mercedes so far. The dominant car allowing a 2-tier race might have helped and exaggerated that effect though.

Amen!

A Hamilton fan I see!

I hope Vettel gives you a repeat doze of 2014, not Rosberg and of course Vettel makes it 5!

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Don't worry, I'm praying for a straight forward, uncomplicated, tension-less 4th WDC too. I fear my nerves will not cope with another 2014.

But in all honesty, I do think that Rosberg time and time again is being severely under valued by many. To be that close to Hamilton I think is quite a feat in itself. For instance, when he was teamed up with Button, I never for a second felt that Button had the raw pace of Hamilton. He might have had some stellar wins and stellar performances, but not one where I felt they were head-to-head. Not like what we saw way back in 2007 when he was teamed up with Alonso. And at times, Rosberg and Hamilton have been that close throughout many races at Mercedes so far. The dominant car allowing a 2-tier race might have helped and exaggerated that effect though.

Amen!

A Hamilton fan I see!

I hope Vettel gives you a repeat doze of 2014, not Rosberg and of course Vettel makes it 5!

For a moment if you imagine, if Mercedes puts all its weight behind Hamilton (when the need be), the way Ferrari is doing, Hamilton will run away with the championship !!!