2017 United States Grand Prix - COTA, 20-22 October

[djones]

A part of me is expecting Mercedes to announce an engine change on Saturday for Hamilton.

He was complaining about vibrations on gear change. So Lauda after the race saying it was tyres is just a lie.

They have a history of keeping it a secret until the very last minute (last time was Hamilton gearbox change).

[dans79]

I have to interject, because the sector times listed previously are wrong.

The best sector times from qualifying last year show both Mercedes on top of every sector.

https://www.fia.com/file/49521/download?token=BOWUqwzF

Sector 1:
Ham 25.066
Ros 25.361
Ric 25.368

Sector 2:
Ros 38.086
Ham 38.153
Ric 38.279

Sector 3:
Ros 31.599
Ham 31.780
Ric 31.842

[SiLo]

Through the Esses themselves both Ferrari and Red Bull were faster, this is fact. Mercedes carried more speed through the sector overall, they weren't the fastest through the twisties but they didn't need to be, they were fast enough on the straights that it didn't matter. They lose .2 in the turns and gain .4 on the straights, that's how they were faster, there isn't enough straight in sector one for them to have that advantage.

They can gain .2 on the straights, but lose .225 in the corners then they're down overall, they can turn that around in sector 2, where they may lose another .1 on the corners, but then gain .3 in the straights, now they're ahead, until sector 3 which isn't really about power but how much traction and downforce you have. Again Mercedes can gain .1 on the straights, but lose .2 in the corners.

Point being is it's too close to call.

Hamilton was mighty in the first sector at Suzuka, how were the Ferraris and Red Bulls faster? They couldn't touch him there.

Because sector one is also most of the pit straight, and then the long left hand Dunlop curve that has a lot of full throttle, and their long wheelbase helps in the two Degners. That is where the advantage lies, not through the actual corners, they lose a little time there, but only a tenth or two at most, however they gain .3 through the full throttle and Degner sections.

Are you privvy to some info that we aren't? The Merc looked supreme through there, especially in the hands of Hamilton. Sector 2 and 3 were much closer. Ferrari were very close to Merc in sector 3 and that has the long back straight and half the pit straight as well which is all power.

[SectorOne]

Horner i believe said they lost 8 tenths on the straights and 2 tenths in the corners.

[oT v1]

love the evening time slot for this race, it's brutal waking up for Suzuka so this will be a joy to sit down and watch!

I think the front 3 teams will be pretty evenly matched in race trim, Ham/Vet/Rai/Bot front 4 on the grid. hopefully no engine penalties

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Hamilton was mighty in the first sector at Suzuka, how were the Ferraris and Red Bulls faster? They couldn't touch him there.

Because sector one is also most of the pit straight, and then the long left hand Dunlop curve that has a lot of full throttle, and their long wheelbase helps in the two Degners. That is where the advantage lies, not through the actual corners, they lose a little time there, but only a tenth or two at most, however they gain .3 through the full throttle and Degner sections.

Are you privvy to some info that we aren't? The Merc looked supreme through there, especially in the hands of Hamilton. Sector 2 and 3 were much closer. Ferrari were very close to Merc in sector 3 and that has the long back straight and half the pit straight as well which is all power.

I hope the argument stops here. I am putting the screen captures of all the turns until turn 10, before the long back straight starts. The gain on start straight very very small as you can see at turn 1. And at the start of turn 10, observe how far ahead Lewis is.


START


TURN 1


TURN 2


TURN 3


TURN 4


TURN 5


TURN 6


TURN 7


TURN 8


TURN 9


TURN 10 - NO TURN BOARD, BUT LEWIS IS HITTING THE APEX FIRST, WHILE VETTEL WAS QUITE FAR BEHIND.

[foxmulder_ms]

Ham will be on pole by half a second. Aftedr S1, he will be ahead by .2, after S2 by 0.5 and it will stay like that till the end of the lab. How is that for prediction ;p

[ChrisDanger]

I have to interject, because the sector times listed previously are wrong.

Times were from Q2, as stated. Just a graphic I spotted while putting together the title post. There was none for Q3. But perhaps this is more representative without Merc's qualy mode turned to 11?

[dans79]

I have to interject, because the sector times listed previously are wrong.

Times were from Q2, as stated. Just a graphic I spotted while putting together the title post. There was none for Q3. But perhaps this is more representative without Merc's qualy mode turned to 11?

I wasn't referring to your particular post, but generally to the believe shown in several posts that merc was not that far ahead.

[godlameroso]

Thanks for verifying my claims, Hamilton gained on the straight, through turn 2 into the esses Vettel makes up time until Dunlop curve, and Hamilton pulls away through the Degners.

[Bill_Kar]

Well, I have never predicted correctly any top 3 or top 5 -maybe not even the winner- but I will give a go. Hope never dies.

By TROT I guestimate that such cool temperatures would null the effect of US as being the Q and softest compound, and furthermore, situation would balance for Mercedes.The effect of cool temperatures is more defining than of tyre compound (It's all guestimates)

Turning the engines up in Q is really not a reliability worry, so Pole would be easily for Hamilton. The tricky part is whether Mercedes will lock the front row or not.Bottas showed in Japan that he could be back on form and USA is not a particularly bad track for him. (He even scored his first points ever there in 2013, with an awful car)
Red Bull would suffer a bit,most likely a lonely third row or a chance to snatch Kimi's place.

Come race day, if cool temperatures trend continues, it's really unlikely for Vettel to finish in front of Hamilton.
If he starts 3rd, he would most possibly get stuck behind Bottas, so bye-bye win.
If he starts 2nd and doesn't turn 1st, he has a chance, albeit quite unlikely even with Mercedes coasting.
If he turns 1st, Hamilton won't bother.

Note: Prior JPN GP, someone posted how wins are distributed based on track temperature on race day. I still believe that it is Red Bull and Ferrari catching up with Mercedes on higher temperature, rather than Mercedes falling behind.Especially RBR seems hugely temperature-dependant IMO.
Generally, it seems more plausible that Mercedes will win when temperature is high, rather than Ferrari-RBR will win when temperature is low.
It could be as simple as WCC having the better equipment, but not everyone is ready to accept this, so whatever.

[i70q7m7ghw]

A part of me is expecting Mercedes to announce an engine change on Saturday for Hamilton.

He was complaining about vibrations on gear change. So Lauda after the race saying it was tyres is just a lie.

They have a history of keeping it a secret until the very last minute (last time was Hamilton gearbox change).

Except we've seen plenty of cases where the Pirelli tyres vibrate/oscillate under load such as after a gear change. I think it's more likely the vibration was tyre related, probably because the temps were low after the restart.

[Phil]

A part of me is expecting Mercedes to announce an engine change on Saturday for Hamilton.

He was complaining about vibrations on gear change. So Lauda after the race saying it was tyres is just a lie.

They have a history of keeping it a secret until the very last minute (last time was Hamilton gearbox change).

Except we've seen plenty of cases where the Pirelli tyres vibrate/oscillate under load such as after a gear change. I think it's more likely the vibration was tyre related, probably because the temps were low after the restart.

Hamilton was very specific in that it was the PU and not the tires. I would assume he can tell the difference.

[Manoah2u]

As much as that is a possibility, Wolff mentioned lewis simply 'saw things' and there was nothing wrong - and let's be honest, under stress tiniest things can start stressing you out to imaginative things.

They said there was no such thing, it may have been the tires after all and lewis suspected it was the engine. It could have been lewis imagination. And it indeed also could have been the engine. it could also have been the track.

Hamilton managed to finish and win that race, which is either way important. Anything can happen next race, and if there's any sign or indication there might be a problem with the engine, they can either opt to use another one or decide to take grid penalty whilst having a very healthy WDC point lead on Vettel, and focus on Bottas getting a win and use tactics to get Hamilton in the top 4, preferably a podium. Not a walk in the park with the Ferrari's and RedBull's speed and drivers included, but not unimaginable to achieve either thanks to the Merc's speed and Ferrari's recent string of fortune.

It's reasonable to say finishing atleast P6 is guaranteed in regards to the Merc's speed no matter what starting position. Every starting position not outside of P10 and the prospect of a step on the podium exponentially grows thanks to using tactics and the start of the race to your benefit to gain track position.

The bigger question for me is though,

If Bottas is in front of Lewis, driving P1, and Hamilton is P2, and Vettel is P3 - would Mercedes swap Bottas with Hamilton regardless of whether Hamilton would be driving faster than Bottas or whether Vettel becomes a threat to Hamilton? I mean, it's always a potential excuse even if factually the threat does not exist, but would Mercedes ask Bottas to let Lewis pass to enlarge his WDC lead on Vettel, or would Mercedes 'respect' Bottas efforts and concider it is of benefit for Bottas too and potentially, in the end, the team, in growing Bottas ' chances on overtaking Vettel in the WDC standings?

[Moose]

Why is sector 1 good for Mercedes? There's only the short main straight, and the downhill into the esses. Aside from that engine power is irrelevant. Sector 2 is the one that suits Mercedes. Sector 3 is all chassis performance I'm not sold, I think it's too close to call between the top 3 around here.

17 easy flat this year.

Key parts to a good lap 1,7,8,9,13-16,19,20.

Sector 1 is good for Mercedes exactly because it's downhill into the esses... The Mercedes has shown itself to be a beast through esses at Silverstone (Maggots/Beckets), Monza (Ascari), and Suzuka (the esses).