2018 season

[Just_a_fan]

Well said Phil. The people saying "the season is over, title goes to Hamilton" appear to have forgotten previous seasons. Stuff happens, it can happen to either title hopeful and it can make or break a title bid. A DNF could throw the title open again or effectively close it down.

[nevill3]

I thought Ferrari's longer wheelbase would be less suited to Singapore and this has proved true. Last years track strengths and weaknesses are a less reliable guide to performance this year due to the changes made to the length of the chassis. Mercedes have been struggling to totally get to grips with losing their FRIC/trick suspension and maybe only now be on top of their tyre issues.

Ferrari should be as strong as Mercedes were at all the "Mercedes tracks of last year" so going forward the season is totally open. The top teams can even take an extra engine and start from the back of certain races if needed due to the large difference between them and the midfield. Starting at the back is no longer the handicap it once was. I am sure Hamilton's pain at losing the WDC to Rosberg due to a DNF has not been forgotten and each team will continue pushing just in case fortunes change and a late surge by Vettel and a DNF for Hamilton could switch things round. Vettels DNF late last year gave the championship to Hamilton who to say a DNF or two when the points are still quite close will not mix things up once more.

[dans79]

Ferrari going heavy on the hypers for Russia.
https://www.racefans.net/2018/09/18/mer ... ussian-gp/

I'm beginning to wonder if the super aggressive tire choices aren't hurting Ferrari.

[digitalrurouni]

I would have thought Mercedes should have chosen one more hyper soft for Russia so they could avoid that near mishap in Q1 that they experienced in Singapore.

[Phil]

They made their tire allocations a long time ago...

[PlatinumZealot]

So after race day (Russia) are we expecting the gap to increase to 50 points with 5 races left to go?

[Fulcrum]

So after race day (Russia) are we expecting the gap to increase to 50 points with 5 races left to go?

Without reliability issues or accidents, this might depend on Mercedes team orders.

[PlatinumZealot]

So after race day (Russia) are we expecting the gap to increase to 50 points with 5 races left to go?

Who would have expected this sort of implosion from Sebastian?

Finishing 6th in Japan, with four races to go and Vettel is now 67 points behind.
Anything less than 8 points to Hamilton in COTA will be the bitter end.
I can see it happening easily in COTA the form that HAM and BOT are in these days.

[notsofast]

Let's see how things have progressed since the beginning of this thread. The battle for best-of-the-rest has tightened up.

7. Sergio Perez 53
8. Kevin Magnussen 53
9. Nico Hulkenberg 53
10. Fernando Alonso 50
11. Esteban Ocon 49

An interesting observation is that the power of the Mercedes engine has not trickled down. The battle for #4 in the WCC is down to Renault and Haas Ferrari. Even if Force India gets P7/P8 in all four remaining races, they won't be able to overtake either of those two teams.

4. Renault 92
5. Haas Ferrari 84
6. McLaren 58
7. Force India 43

[NoDivergence]

Let's see how things have progressed since the beginning of this thread. The battle for best-of-the-rest has tightened up.

7. Sergio Perez 53
8. Kevin Magnussen 53
9. Nico Hulkenberg 53
10. Fernando Alonso 50
11. Esteban Ocon 49

An interesting observation is that the power of the Mercedes engine has not trickled down. The battle for #4 in the WCC is down to Renault and Haas Ferrari. Even if Force India gets P7/P8 in all four remaining races, they won't be able to overtake either of those two teams.

4. Renault 92
5. Haas Ferrari 84
6. McLaren 58
7. Force India 43

Mercedes aero efficiency is no joke. They've been vastly underestimated in the chassis/aero works for years now by fans

[szlaszlo84]

Don’t forget get that Force India’s points have been taken away. Add Ocon’s and Perez’s points up and the Merc engine is back on top.

[Phil]

Current points tally after Suzuka with 4 races remaining:

1 Lewis Hamilton 331
2 Sebastian Vettel 264
3 Valtteri Bottas 207

Assuming Vettel wins all of the remaining races, the maximum Vettel can achieve points wise is 364 points (264 + 4*25). Thus, assuming Vettel finishes ahead of Hamilton in the 4 remaining races, all Hamilton needs to do is get another 33 points to seal the championship. In theory, Vettel can still match Hamilton for wins this season (current tally 9 vs 5 in Hamilton's favor), but Hamilton will win on equal wins due to more podiums. So 33 point is all Hamilton needs over the next 4 races in the unlikely event Vettel somehow wins the next 4 races.

33 points is achieved by doing at least:

- one win and a 6th place
- one 2nd place and a 3rd place finish
- two 3rd place an 8th place finish
- two 4th place and a 5th place finish
- three 5th places and 8th place finish

As PlatinumZealot said above, the easiest would be to outscore Vettel in the next race by 8 points to seal the deal. This would be achieved with a race win and Vettel finishing in 3rd.

[SiLo]

Judging by how the mercs look right now, I wouldn't at all be surprised if there is a 1-2 again in Texas.

[NathanOlder]

Current points tally after Suzuka with 4 races remaining:

1 Lewis Hamilton 331
2 Sebastian Vettel 264
3 Valtteri Bottas 207

Assuming Vettel wins all of the remaining races, the maximum Vettel can achieve points wise is 364 points (264 + 4*25). Thus, assuming Vettel finishes ahead of Hamilton in the 4 remaining races, all Hamilton needs to do is get another 33 points to seal the championship. In theory, Vettel can still match Hamilton for wins this season (current tally 9 vs 5 in Hamilton's favor), but Hamilton will win on equal wins due to more podiums. So 33 point is all Hamilton needs over the next 4 races in the unlikely event Vettel somehow wins the next 4 races.

33 points is achieved by doing at least:

- one win and a 6th place
- one 2nd place and a 3rd place finish
- two 3rd place an 8th place finish
- two 4th place and a 5th place finish
- three 5th places and 8th place finish

As PlatinumZealot said above, the easiest would be to outscore Vettel in the next race by 8 points to seal the deal. This would be achieved with a race win and Vettel finishing in 3rd.

It would be 1 win and a 10th place

[turbof1]

Current points tally after Suzuka with 4 races remaining:

1 Lewis Hamilton 331
2 Sebastian Vettel 264
3 Valtteri Bottas 207

Assuming Vettel wins all of the remaining races, the maximum Vettel can achieve points wise is 364 points (264 + 4*25). Thus, assuming Vettel finishes ahead of Hamilton in the 4 remaining races, all Hamilton needs to do is get another 33 points to seal the championship. In theory, Vettel can still match Hamilton for wins this season (current tally 9 vs 5 in Hamilton's favor), but Hamilton will win on equal wins due to more podiums. So 33 point is all Hamilton needs over the next 4 races in the unlikely event Vettel somehow wins the next 4 races.

33 points is achieved by doing at least:

- one win and a 6th place
- one 2nd place and a 3rd place finish
- two 3rd place an 8th place finish
- two 4th place and a 5th place finish
- three 5th places and 8th place finish

As PlatinumZealot said above, the easiest would be to outscore Vettel in the next race by 8 points to seal the deal. This would be achieved with a race win and Vettel finishing in 3rd.

It would be 1 win and a 10th place

Yeah. Winning would be taking 7 points away from Vettel. Basically those 33 points are what you score yourself + which points Vettel looses from the maximum.