2024 pecking order predictions

[organic]

Ferrari will keep being Ferrari. Why would anything change? They seem determined to fire their way to the top. I lost all confidence in them when they canned Binotto and they will pay for that bonehead decision, for years. They fired the guy the team members would have fought to win for, for a Frenchman nobody knows or has any passion for. Just a terrible terrible call from Ferrari. I have less confidence in their current principal, Vasseur, than Wolff. And that’s saying something.

I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.

I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).

2nd constructors and drivers too 3rd in the constructors and 5th place in the drivers? i dont see how they have progressed, to me, it looks like they have gone backwards, not forwards, so surely they regressed?

Looking at the results this early into Vasseur tenure is not how to see his progress.

Sf23 was designed under Binotto. Vasseur made difficult decision to stop developing sf23 early. Cost P3 in WCC but they still closed the deficit to RB from over 1% to close to 0.5% through car understanding and a very decisive Suzuka update. .

I think the biggest area of improvement is that Vasseur admits to mistakes and is able to honestly talk about ferrari being weak in certain departments - he believes every department they need to improve. Binotto would probably talk retrospectively about their successes in 2023 - Singapore for instance - rather than address reality which is that the car was dire

[Mosin123]

I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.

I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).

2nd constructors and drivers too 3rd in the constructors and 5th place in the drivers? i dont see how they have progressed, to me, it looks like they have gone backwards, not forwards, so surely they regressed?

Looking at the results this early into Vasseur tenure is not how to see his progress.

Sf23 was designed under Binotto. Vasseur made difficult decision to stop developing sf23 early. Cost P3 in WCC but they still closed the deficit to RB from over 1% to close to 0.5% through car understanding and a very decisive Suzuka update. .

I think the biggest area of improvement is that Vasseur admits to mistakes and is able to honestly talk about ferrari being weak in certain departments - he believes every department they need to improve. Binotto would probably talk retrospectively about their successes in 2023 - Singapore for instance - rather than address reality which is that the car was dire

Redbull have spent most of the season working on next years car, if they didnt close it up a bit, i would be extremely worried.

Owning up to mistakes or not, Leclerc finished 2nd last year 100 points better off, Ferrari also finished 100 points better off, in a season full of mistakes from the team and drivers.... Looking at the season just finished and looking forward, they just lost out to Merc and going forward looking at teams potential - McLaren, AM, and Merc look a better prospect.

[Vanja #66]

Looking at the results this early into Vasseur tenure is not how to see his progress.

Sf23 was designed under Binotto. Vasseur made difficult decision to stop developing sf23 early. Cost P3 in WCC but they still closed the deficit to RB from over 1% to close to 0.5% through car understanding and a very decisive Suzuka update. .

Asside from the obvious thing (duuuh, WCC points and standings are the only measure if team made progress or not!!1 ) it should be said Vasseur actually pushed for updates longer than Ferrari did in the last 6-7 years, maybe even 10. They finished with significant Japan floor updates, while last year F1-75 barely changed since France (excluding Monza-spec wing, as it's not really an update). This allowed them to gain crucial development path understanding it would seem, since the car was evidently more predictable and better balanced in the race trim. An unexpected turn of events for Ferrari, but there we have it...

<Mod edit: ghosts of seasons past removed>

[ali623]

Ferrari will keep being Ferrari. Why would anything change? They seem determined to fire their way to the top. I lost all confidence in them when they canned Binotto and they will pay for that bonehead decision, for years. They fired the guy the team members would have fought to win for, for a Frenchman nobody knows or has any passion for. Just a terrible terrible call from Ferrari. I have less confidence in their current principal, Vasseur, than Wolff. And that’s saying something.

I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.

I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).

2nd constructors and drivers too 3rd in the constructors and 5th place in the drivers? i dont see how they have progressed, to me, it looks like they have gone backwards, not forwards, so surely they regressed?

@organic basically covered it above, but to add to that, of course the car was much worse relative to the field this year compared to 2022 - which you can't blame on Vasseur. By the mid-point of the season, Ferrari were over 50pts behind Mercedes, still behind Aston Martin and even Norris felt like McLaren could catch them.

Second half of the season was strong though, a win, 5 poles and more importantly an upgrade that actually worked properly. The momentum was very much with them, for now anyway I'm positive about next season.

[Mosin123]

I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.

I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).

2nd constructors and drivers too 3rd in the constructors and 5th place in the drivers? i dont see how they have progressed, to me, it looks like they have gone backwards, not forwards, so surely they regressed?

@organic basically covered it above, but to add to that, of course the car was much worse relative to the field this year compared to 2022 - which you can't blame on Vasseur. By the mid-point of the season, Ferrari were over 50pts behind Mercedes, still behind Aston Martin and even Norris felt like McLaren could catch them.

Second half of the season was strong though, a win, 5 poles and more importantly an upgrade that actually worked properly. The momentum was very much with them, for now anyway I'm positive about next season.

And how many should they have had last year excluding driver and team mistakes?
They was easy the 2nd best team last year, and should have had a bigger gap to Merc in 3rd and finished much closer to redbull than they eventually finished because of team and driver mistakes.

This year, they lost the fight to 2nd ( To a Merc team that are still trying to figure it out ), and made far far less mistakes, they was also under threat of finishing 4th to McLaren, they had to carry on developing to stay ahead / keep pace with the Merc. Im shocked any one thinks that is an improvement. Yeah they made less mistakes, but when you made more than the rest of the grid combined the season before, anything should have been an improvement in that area.

[Zynerji]

I predict RBR are smoke screening, and Q1 is separated by .02s p1 to p20.

I can always hope.

[hollus]

2024, please. Some posts have been deleted. 2023 as an indicator relates, but VAR decisions do not change any car’s performance and do not.

[selvam_e2002]

It will be lot closer compared to last two years because rules are not changing. RB may need good Second driver or wing man for Max to win 2024.

[selvam_e2002]

Could be repeat of 2010 and 2012.

[mwillems]

Mclaren and Aston are two teams that have shown that the pecking order is quite unstable from 2nd and below. One would expect that RB are going to come out with another cracker of a car, but after Red Bull it feels like it is very much in the air and I doubt anyone can take anything for granted.

Mclaren, Mercedes and Ferrari are all making the right noises about their development, but a tenth difference here or there come the first GP is enough to swing it as these cars are incredibly tight right now in terms of performance.

As for the gap to 1st, it feels quite difficult to gauge just how close anyone was to RB and just how much they had left in the tank. It feels like they may have been pushed a bit overall but it still feels like the average gap from 1st to 2nd is still several tenths of a second per lap in race trim. I'm not sure many would be surprised to see the gap to first maintained at least at the start of the next year. But the gaps between all the teams including Red Bull are such that one big development leap can change everything, including who has the fastest car of the field.

[CMC]

Mclaren and Aston are two teams that have shown that the pecking order is quite unstable from 2nd and below. One would expect that RB are going to come out with another cracker of a car, but after Red Bull it feels like it is very much in the air and I doubt anyone can take anything for granted.

Mclaren, Mercedes and Ferrari are all making the right noises about their development, but a tenth difference here or there come the first GP is enough to swing it as these cars are incredibly tight right now in terms of performance.

As for the gap to 1st, it feels quite difficult to gauge just how close anyone was to RB and just how much they had left in the tank. It feels like they may have been pushed a bit overall but it still feels like the average gap from 1st to 2nd is still several tenths of a second per lap in race trim. I'm not sure many would be surprised to see the gap to first maintained at least at the start of the next year. But the gaps between all the teams including Red Bull are such that one big development leap can change everything, including who has the fastest car of the field.

Great post. Agree with everything you wrote.

[mwillems]

Early but the seasons finished so let’s go bear in my mind my predictions for last season were spot on (McLaren mid season jump Aston strong out the gate)

2024 F1 predictions (wrote 25th November 2023 after Abu Dhabi quali)

Constructors:

McLaren
Redbull
Mercedes
Ferrari
Alpha tauri
Aston Martin
Williams
Alpine
Haas
Sauber

Drivers (top 10)

Norris
Verstappen
Hamilton
Piastri
Perez
Leclerc
Russel
Sainz
Alonso
Ricciardo


Redbull and McLaren very evenly matched at the start of the season on pace with it come down to driver skill making the difference. McLaren out-develop redbull and build a gap later in the year (more wind tunnel and prize money)

Mercedes bring a whole new concept not as quick as McLaren or redbull at the start of the year but in the right conditions can challenge them. By end of the year they’ve understood their car an they are challenging red bull for second place in the constructors only missing out by a handful of points

Alpha tauri (or whatever they decide to be called) will continue to take as much as they can from redbull this will give them a handy race craft to challenge the likes of Ferrari on the right day

Ferrari has a decent enough race car at the beginning of the season but leclerc and sainz will come to blows on multiple occasions costing the team valuable points in the constructors

Aston Martin will struggle at the beginning of the season only scoring a few points. A mid season upgrade helps them score regular points but not enough to catch alpha tauri

Wowsers I only just read this opening post! I do hope you are correct. I would dearly love a Mclaren Constructors win next season but I feel it might be a stretch - but not impossible. If Mclaren can get close to RB in car performance then the driver pairings will be the decider, to a degree. If RB are challenged by another team next year and Checo continues to struggle, this could make life very hard for RB in the constructors next year. But at the same time you need Oscar to raise his game on the Sunday to support Mclaren if it is they.

Russell also has questions to answer next year but Ferrari have a good pairing and Sainz seems to have never really set the world on fire, but has just continually developed year after year to the point that with a good car he could really do something next to Leclerc. The drivers will have as much to say about the standings next year as the car. There seems to be 7 drivers strong enough to be world champions with a competitive car IMO.

[CMC]

The drivers will have as much to say about the standings next year as the car. There seems to be 7 drivers strong enough to be world champions with a competitive car IMO.

I believe 3 of your 7 are obvious - Max, Lewis, Fernando
and I suspect 2 more of your 7 are Charles and Lando
but I'm curious about the remaining 2!

between George, Oscar, and Carlos, who makes the list?

[mwillems]

The drivers will have as much to say about the standings next year as the car. There seems to be 7 drivers strong enough to be world champions with a competitive car IMO.

I believe 3 of your 7 are obvious - Max, Lewis, Fernando
and I suspect 2 more of your 7 are Charles and Lando
but I'm curious about the remaining 2!

between George, Oscar, and Carlos, who makes the list?

For me Oscar has work to do, he isn't a contender yet but given a good car I think he could be a thorn in the side of many. It wouldn't surprise me if he is regularly getting up there with the big boys next year as the season progresses as he will improve and a better car will tone down his tyre management inexperience.

I don't expect him to be too far off Norris next year but time will tell. More DF and a better chassis will allow his driving style a bit more leeway with the energy he puts into the tyres.

[CMC]

The drivers will have as much to say about the standings next year as the car. There seems to be 7 drivers strong enough to be world champions with a competitive car IMO.

I believe 3 of your 7 are obvious - Max, Lewis, Fernando
and I suspect 2 more of your 7 are Charles and Lando
but I'm curious about the remaining 2!

between George, Oscar, and Carlos, who makes the list?

For me Oscar has work to do, he isn't a contender yet but given a good car I think he could be a thorn in the side of many. It wouldn't surprise me if he is regularly getting up there with the big boys next year as the season progresses as he will improve and a better car will tone down his tyre management inexperience.

I don't expect him to be too far off Norris next year but time will tell. More DF and a better chassis will allow his driving style a bit more leeway with the energy he puts into the tyres.

Appreciate your reply. For me, George isn't there either, and I believe he is lacking in some of the areas that I see Oscar being strong. Keeping a cool head, for example.

Although I think he is quite solid and has many good traits, I also can't see Carlos as a champion, unless he was in a situation with a dominant car and possibly with a teammate disparity on the order of that at Red Bull (Max v Checo) or Aston (Fernando v Stroll). Although he was close with Charles in 2021 (he finished narrowly ahead) and 2023 (narrowly behind), I think he was flattered in those seasons by better luck and by Charles sometimes making mistakes while overdriving. I think 2022 was more representative of their relative pace.