[ 2020 ] Aston Martin RedBull Racing F1 Team - Honda

[gshevlin]

The only way that F1 will be attractive to manufacturers starting in 2026 is if the ICE component of the PU regulations is either marginal or non-existent, or if the formula is totally focussed on cost containment, so that only a modest investment ($50-$75m) is necessary for a competitive PU to be designed and supplied, thus allowing an auto manufacturer to justify the spending as a marketing exercise, not an R&D exercise.
(Prediction: I expect Honda to enter Formula E in 2022 or 2023).
With hindsight, the failure to assure a competitive private PU supply was both an indictment of the PU regulations, and a failure on the part of F1 to assure the existence of a PU not tied to a major manufacturer. As we have seen once more, manufacturers come and go, and when they suddenly up and leave, the results can be very disruptive.
The real irony in all of the events is that Ferrari may have nudged Honda towards their decision to leave, by implementing an ingenious but dubiously legal ICE solution that forced Mercedes to throw a massive amount of resource at their PU program in 2019.That ensured that Mercedes once again had the most powerful PU in 2020, and then, with the Covid freeze, Honda found themselves spending hundreds of millions of dollars only to be locked into having the second-best power unit.

[NL_Fer]

Marko now says he and Matesitz already knew about Honda’s decision. They haven’t contacted Renault yet, but planning to stay. One could draw the conclusion that they want to sell the team.

Maybe stay as a (driver) sponsor, but they already made such suggestions when they started the Honda project. It would be now or never for Redbull.

[Manoah2u]

I hope not, i hope they stay longer, but i'm afraid signs are pointing indeed at that direction. 2020 has been crazy, and we've got 2 months left, then move to 2021, and if we look at how 2020's crazyness really started going off was march, we're still in for a month of 3 extra before a full year of mayhem has passed.

[TNTHead]

I wonder if the leaving of Honda forces F1 management to reconsider the regulations. Who are going to watch F1 when predictability is 100% next years? I would not be surprised when RB uses the threat of leaving to enforce a change of plans. Budget cap should give a more level playing field, only because of PU we wont see that before 2026 with current rule set. That means brain drain on all teams not having a Merc PU. Do F1 management really want that? I really dont know if F1 keeps alive until 2026 with a locked-in performance differential.

Time for either a spec engine/ICE or a major simplified engine to open up the possibilities of other manufacturers.

[Sieper]

they will change nothing, their biggest spender wins the title. all others can spend more or sod off. as long as they don't actually do that they don't care. In fact, I think a lot of things happened to make I difficult for Honda. never a nice advantage their way. only extra roadblocks. If you spent as much and others have all the influence and some point you pack up.

[godlameroso]

Interesting, do you think that politics and Honda being a Japanese company made things more difficult for them to actively compete with European companies in a European sport? Some sort of implicit racial bias among the FIA/FOM?

[Sieper]

Not racial, but certainly euro company centric. And, logically, their biggest spender has had so many advantages. And the red team was able to domsomthing until they pushed it way too far. And when advantages were taken away, in very small steps. Yes, I feel this is one of the reasons Honda pulled the plug. The economical situation is the major one though. If RBR would have won the title this year they might have stayed.

[Just_a_fan]

Interesting, do you think that politics and Honda being a Japanese company made things more difficult for them to actively compete with European companies in a European sport? Some sort of implicit racial bias among the FIA/FOM?

I would have expected a bigger bias against the Japanese from residents of the USA, to be honest. Pearl Harbour and all that still being relatively fresh in the memory.

I don't think any bias is the cause of the change of focus, however. I think it's simply the expediency that in Indy, they'll just say "here's the engine, get on with it" but in F1 the PU has to fit in to an overarching concept that the team is chasing. We saw how that can work out badly with McLaren and Honda, for example.

[Just_a_fan]

The economical situation is the major one though. If RBR would have won the title this year they might have stayed.

Could there also be that the US is still a decent market for ICE where Europe is heading much more quickly away from performance ICE products towards EVs of various flavours?

[Sieper]

Yes, very likely, plus, the US racing engine is much simpler, less costly and Honda is actually winning there. Not in F1 and if FIA can do anything about it they rather see Mercedes win as they spent the most in our sport.

[godlameroso]

Interesting, do you think that politics and Honda being a Japanese company made things more difficult for them to actively compete with European companies in a European sport? Some sort of implicit racial bias among the FIA/FOM?

I would have expected a bigger bias against the Japanese from residents of the USA, to be honest. Pearl Harbour and all that still being relatively fresh in the memory.

I don't think any bias is the cause of the change of focus, however. I think it's simply the expediency that in Indy, they'll just say "here's the engine, get on with it" but in F1 the PU has to fit in to an overarching concept that the team is chasing. We saw how that can work out badly with McLaren and Honda, for example.

I honestly believe the pain was necessary because now Ferrari is feeling that same pain, and to some extent Renault as well.

[godlameroso]

Yes, very likely, plus, the US racing engine is much simpler, less costly and Honda is actually winning there. Not in F1 and if FIA can do anything about it they rather see Mercedes win as they spent the most in our sport.

Toto is very powerful politically, also Ross Brawn basically put together the Mercedes team that has dominated. You cannot ignore these two factors, as Mercedes has never had the kind of scrutiny McLaren or Renault or Ferrari has had when they were winning, or Red Bull during their domination period. Or how quickly regulations have banned things for teams like Williams or BAR Honda, often times in season. With Mercedes? Oil burning clamp downs are timed to give Mercedes a chance to introduce their final spec and not fall foul. DAS bans is implemented next season allowing Mercedes to keep its advantage all season. Similarly Mercedes makes a huge gain over the winter and conveniently no in season updates are allowed, which just so happens to cement Mercedes advantage. I don't know, some things are very conveniently timed in their favor, which could lead people to assume things.

[diffuser]

The only way that F1 will be attractive to manufacturers starting in 2026 is if the ICE component of the PU regulations is either marginal or non-existent, or if the formula is totally focussed on cost containment, so that only a modest investment ($50-$75m) is necessary for a competitive PU to be designed and supplied, thus allowing an auto manufacturer to justify the spending as a marketing exercise, not an R&D exercise.
(Prediction: I expect Honda to enter Formula E in 2022 or 2023).
With hindsight, the failure to assure a competitive private PU supply was both an indictment of the PU regulations, and a failure on the part of F1 to assure the existence of a PU not tied to a major manufacturer. As we have seen once more, manufacturers come and go, and when they suddenly up and leave, the results can be very disruptive.
The real irony in all of the events is that Ferrari may have nudged Honda towards their decision to leave, by implementing an ingenious but dubiously legal ICE solution that forced Mercedes to throw a massive amount of resource at their PU program in 2019.That ensured that Mercedes once again had the most powerful PU in 2020, and then, with the Covid freeze, Honda found themselves spending hundreds of millions of dollars only to be locked into having the second-best power unit.

1 - I don't think money has anything to do with why Honda would stay or leave F1. They could have charged $40 Million Euros for the 4 cars they supply and didn't.
2 - Honda is competative now and has been for a couple of years.
3 - Forbes said (that Merc said) at the end of 2019 that Merc had spent slightly under 1 Billion Euros on Developing the PU thru to the end of 2019. That probably started in 2011, 8 years, or $125 Euros per year.
4 - Please don't blame anyone but Honda and McLaren for their short commings, It's embarassing. They could of used the regs to thier advantage and didn't(waited another year). That's a falure to be smart. The fact is they both accepted the regs, with minor allowances that they negotiated.
5- Not sure what you mean by "dubiouly legal ICE solution". The only thing I know Ferrari did was shoot themselves in the foot by trying to circumvent the rules by working around the sensors. They're now gonna take several years to catch up.

[Manoah2u]

So.....With Honda leaving at the end of 2021......One has to concider what will happen with the team.
Max surely has a clause and let's face it, he wasn't going to get a WDC with Honda anyway.

It's most likely that we will see RB sign with Renault for the 2022 season, as I think it's unlikely RedBull will 'buy' the Honda power unit and do things internally, perhaps through some help with Cosworth. This is not neccesarily a bad thing as Renault's power unit seems to have improved a good margin this season if we look at how Daniel and Esteban have crawled to the front more or less and the topspeed of the Renault has improved significantly. Renault also no longer is the essential works team, even though Alpine more or less still is. So they could 'make amends' and reboot their relationship. This could mean Max does interest in staying, as it could potentially bring them a winning car.

But to be honest, I think Max is starting to have had enough of RedBull's promises and he can't afford another 'risk'.
And let's face it, a high-end Mercedes deal would be much more interesting for him right now.

Hamilton has not signed a contract for 2021 and beyond, and Bottas contract expires too at the end of 2021.
So 2022 Could open a spot for Max at AMG Mercedes.

However, with increased likeliness that INEOS is buying the team and AMG is going to step down, one could only wonder what that will do.
Will Hamilton stay @ Mercedes? Or will Hamilton move to Aston Martin?
I think it's pretty likely that Daddy Stroll, despite his son being there, would still sign Hamilton over his boy alongside Vettel.
And something tells me that it's not unlikely that the same could happen for Verstappen, as it's not unlikely for Verstappen to go to Aston Martin,
as his chances are greater to win a WDC there than it is with staying with RedBull.

This all could change though if Max is lured to stay with a decent VW Group deal (Porsche, Lamborghini, Bugatti, VW, Audi), looking towards 2026,
AND could also change if Max is able to grab a WDC with Honda in 2021. VERY unlikely, but not outside of the realm of opportunities.

To be fair, the only way right now i can see Max staying, and for that matter, RedBull, is through a works deal with Porsche / VAG. and then ONLY,
if they are able to convince them they're going to make an investment that'll get them winning.

[godlameroso]

The power units are on the verge of parity, and all 3 manufacturers left will have the same layout(split turbo) there's nothing unique about the Honda power plant other than the cylinder wall plating. So going from Honda back to Renault won't be a huge change other than increased expenditure on RBR's end.