2018 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, April 13-15

[f1316]

So Mercedes will definitely come back and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they’re much stronger tomorrow and end up having the strongest car at some stage of the season - but they don’t right now, that’s now for sure.

Comfortably best car in Australia, best car in Bahrain, second best car in China. I'm not sure I'd say that they 'for sure' don't have the best car based on the evidence so far?

I could be easily persuaded that Ferrari have the best garage/pit wall though. Their not making any strategic or background mistakes whereas Merc look to be struggling to tie their own shoelaces.

Ferrari have done a great job this weekend and should deservedly cruise to a comfortable 1-2 tomorrow, I'm interested to see what happens behind them though.

Best car in Bahrain? Where are you getting that from? The 1-2 Ferrari had in qualifying kinda says otherwise.

Best strategy in Bahrain, yes, and yet they still weren’t able to win.

Anyway, whatever, we’ll see - my real point was that Mercedes will come back.

[Vanja #66]

What the hell was that, Vettel gained 1.5 tenths on the straight,

ERS boost? To me it looks like Kimi used it bit by bit in shorter straights and Seb used most of it on the long one.

[godlameroso]

So Mercedes will definitely come back and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they’re much stronger tomorrow and end up having the strongest car at some stage of the season - but they don’t right now, that’s now for sure.

Comfortably best car in Australia, best car in Bahrain, second best car in China. I'm not sure I'd say that they 'for sure' don't have the best car based on the evidence so far?

I could be easily persuaded that Ferrari have the best garage/pit wall though. Their not making any strategic or background mistakes whereas Merc look to be struggling to tie their own shoelaces.

Ferrari have done a great job this weekend and should deservedly cruise to a comfortable 1-2 tomorrow, I'm interested to see what happens behind them though.

Best car in Bahrain? Where are you getting that from? The 1-2 Ferrari had in qualifying kinda says otherwise.

Best strategy in Bahrain, yes, and yet they still weren’t able to win.

Anyway, whatever, we’ll see - my real point was that Mercedes will come back.

Mercedes has the faster race car, if Hamilton gets in front he can control the race, his pace was better than Vettel in every race thus far. I don't think it'll be a cake walk for Vettel, or Ferrari.

In Bahrain Hamilton was faster than Vettel in 36 out of 57 laps, in Australia Hamilton was faster in 38 out of 58 laps. Hamilton was consistently faster in a large portion of the race. For whatever reason Hamilton hasn't been able to convert that pace advantage into pole or a win.

Goes to show how small mistakes can mean the difference between 1st and 4th.

[aleks_ader]

What the hell was that, Vettel gained 1.5 tenths on the straight,

ERS boost? To me it looks like Kimi used it bit by bit in shorter straights and Seb used most of it on the long one.

Better exit: look shifting lights Vettel reach sooner on beggining. ERS bar seems same at least green part of it...

[CriXus]

Vettel gains on Raikkonen after the DRS line. Maybe Kimi has opened the DRS a bit later. Even 0.5 sec worse reaction is enough.

[Brenton]

What the hell was that, Vettel gained 1.5 tenths on the straight,

ERS boost? To me it looks like Kimi used it bit by bit in shorter straights and Seb used most of it on the long one.

Better exit: look shifting lights Vettel reach sooner on beggining. ERS bar seems same at least green part of it...

https://snag.gy/0hamlB.jpg

The video shows a gap change that makes it clear that raikkonen had a better exit onto the back straight. ERS must have done it for Vettel on the back straight. Because also look at earlier in the lap. Raikkonen would get an acceleration boost totally disproportionate compared to his corner exits compared to Vettel. Suggesting that Vettel used ERS on the back straight more while raikkonen used it more on the shorter straights earlier in the lap.

I wonder if Vettel's slower turn 1 was part of a deliberately different pattern than Kimi or just incidental. The GPS comparison videos are fascinating, and the first turns the most interesting seeing them go back and forth in advantage.

Watching the onboard pole lap on tv with volume cranked was a treat. Beatuiful looking and sounding lap. So smooth. The Ferrari PU roars.

Interestingly, taking the best sector times gives Kimi faster than Vettel. Just me or does this happen regularly? Where Kimi does fastest sectors but inconsistent in Q3, like Hungary last year.

[Brenton]

Those that know Hamiltons body and verbal language better than me, what did you think about his post qualifying interview? He appeared to be really upset, in a way that made me think it wasn't just a bad lap or bad qualy... He seemed like he thinks Ferrari has a definitive championship edge now. Comparing to how he would have reacted to a 4th place last season. But y'all have seen him in interviews more than me so I don't know.

Mercedes much closer to Ferrari on speed trap than in practice right? Presumably they reduced wing significantly after practice? But Ferrari seems to have more downforce for the same amount of drag that Mercedes has, today at least. Wow

[f1316]

Comfortably best car in Australia, best car in Bahrain, second best car in China. I'm not sure I'd say that they 'for sure' don't have the best car based on the evidence so far?

I could be easily persuaded that Ferrari have the best garage/pit wall though. Their not making any strategic or background mistakes whereas Merc look to be struggling to tie their own shoelaces.

Ferrari have done a great job this weekend and should deservedly cruise to a comfortable 1-2 tomorrow, I'm interested to see what happens behind them though.

Best car in Bahrain? Where are you getting that from? The 1-2 Ferrari had in qualifying kinda says otherwise.

Best strategy in Bahrain, yes, and yet they still weren’t able to win.

Anyway, whatever, we’ll see - my real point was that Mercedes will come back.

Mercedes has the faster race car, if Hamilton gets in front he can control the race, his pace was better than Vettel in every race thus far. I don't think it'll be a cake walk for Vettel, or Ferrari.

In Bahrain Hamilton was faster than Vettel in 36 out of 57 laps, in Australia Hamilton was faster in 38 out of 58 laps. Hamilton was consistently faster in a large portion of the race. For whatever reason Hamilton hasn't been able to convert that pace advantage into pole or a win.

Goes to show how small mistakes can mean the difference between 1st and 4th.

You know as well as I do that for 39 laps of the Bahrain GP Vettel was nursing tyres and Hamilton was on more suitable rubber.

I’m really surprised anyone’s making that argument that Mercedes were a genuinely faster race car in Bahrain - taking aside the better strategy moves they made - but fair enough, we’re all entitled to our opinions.

[Wouter]

Is Ferrari even using the new floor this weekend?

I don't think so, actually their car is pretty much the same as it was in Melbourne. Rumored diffuser update in Bahrain but I still can't see difference. They just got their concept working.

Yes, Ferrari is using a new floor with some little updates and they have some little updates on the wings this weekend.
They also had great help from Kvyat for the setup.

[aleks_ader]

The video shows a gap change that makes it clear that raikkonen had a better exit onto the back straight. ERS must have done it for Vettel on the back straight. Because also look at earlier in the lap. Raikkonen would get an acceleration boost totally disproportionate compared to his corner exits compared to Vettel. Suggesting that Vettel used ERS on the back straight more while raikkonen used it more on the shorter straights earlier in the lap.

Vettel was behind already before into entry into 11&12&13 turn complex before strait. To me RPM lights shows that Vettel reach much higher speed in that instance. So he gained time on strait alone. Even i would say its combination of those 3 elements. First mapping a bit more deploy left comparing RAI. 2nd nice "slipperly " setup aka. little low drag. Overall Vettel had slight edge into speed-traps during whole weekend. 3rd just better and faster exit onto backstrait.

[Brenton]

The video shows a gap change that makes it clear that raikkonen had a better exit onto the back straight. ERS must have done it for Vettel on the back straight. Because also look at earlier in the lap. Raikkonen would get an acceleration boost totally disproportionate compared to his corner exits compared to Vettel. Suggesting that Vettel used ERS on the back straight more while raikkonen used it more on the shorter straights earlier in the lap.

Vettel was behind already before into entry into 11&12&13 turn complex before strait. To me RPM lights shows that Vettel reach much higher speed in that instance. So he gained time on strait alone. Even i would say its combination of those 3 elements. First mapping a bit more deploy left comparing RAI. 2nd nice "slipperly " setup aka. little low drag. Overall Vettel had slight edge into speed-traps during whole weekend. 3rd just better and faster exit onto backstrait.

Good point.. The speed advantage for Vettel did come later than I'd expect to be purely ERS. It was at high speed that he really shined ahead, which is really suggestive of lower drag.

[Silent Storm]

Perez was ahead of Vettel, not close enough to disrupt his lap but enough to give a small tow down the straight, that's why Seb gained that much on the straight.
You can pause it at 1:10 and 1:20 and see the Force India ahead of him in the video.

[MtthsMlw]

In pre saison testing AMuS gave a really in depth analysis of the top speeds and acceleration from the finish line to the top speed before braking. They concluded that Ferrari made quite an improvement with their mgu-h I think. The Ferrari powered cars gained more speed in that section than the others. I hope there will be a comparison like the one above between Vettel and Bottas. If you find one please post it here

[Vanja #66]

Perez was ahead of Vettel, not close enough to disrupt his lap but enough to give a small tow down the straight, that's why Seb gained that much on the straight.
You can pause it at 1:10 and 1:20 and see the Force India ahead of him in the video.

[Wynters]

Best car in Bahrain? Where are you getting that from? The 1-2 Ferrari had in qualifying kinda says otherwise.

Best strategy in Bahrain, yes, and yet they still weren’t able to win.

Anyway, whatever, we’ll see - my real point was that Mercedes will come back.

I don't think pace in qualifying = pace in the race. It's on a different day, under different track conditions, often using different tyres to those used for the majority of the race distance, with different fuel loads and the former rarely has people deliberately trying to block you. But, happy to agree to disagree as you seem very sure they are the same.

yet they still weren’t able to win

I think the Mercedes strategists dropped the ball again and misjudged when to push. You seem to think Vettel deliberately let Bottas close at 1.8 seconds a lap and into DRS range*.

Just to be clear, if there had been another lap (or, indeed, several), you think Vettel would have comfortably held the race lead? I've looked at Vettel and Ferrari's comments after the race and they seemed happier than I'd have expected if they had cruised to victory with plenty in hand.

You know as well as I do that for 39 laps of the Bahrain GP Vettel was nursing tyres and Hamilton was on more suitable rubber.

Ah, if we take out some of the things that made the Mercedes faster then, yes, you are right, Ferrari were faster. I'd argue it's a bit of a false comparison though. For instance, Hamilton was half a second faster on Soft tyres during Qualifying today, so if we take away Ferrari's pace on the Ultra Softs (they are on more suitable rubber for traversing the relevant distance, so we should ignore that) then you could say that Mercedes is the much faster car in China. I'd disagree though.

*Source - James Allen