Silly season 2024-2025

[Vanja #66]

I don't think there's any chance for Audi to get Sainz any more. Sauber is so poor right now, it's really sad. It will take at least until 2030 to get them anywhere near a podium and who knows how long until challenging for wins, Sainz doesn't want to waste his time waiting. It all depends on Max and Red Bull relationship, but let's be conservative and expect them to continue together even if Marko retires on his own soon.

I think Alonso retires and Sainz gets his seat with his blessing and possibly even mentoring. Being a long-term Honda works team is the best bet for him, Mercedes is a no-go and McLaren seats are taken. I don't think Sainz will want to go to another team and not receive the #1 driver deal, he certainly has the right for such expectations, so Red Bull is highly unlikely in my view.

[leblanc]

I don't think there's any chance for Audi to get Sainz any more. Sauber is so poor right now, it's really sad. It will take at least until 2030 to get them anywhere near a podium and who knows how long until challenging for wins, Sainz doesn't want to waste his time waiting. It all depends on Max and Red Bull relationship, but let's be conservative and expect them to continue together even if Marko retires on his own soon.

Yeah, agreed. I don’t see Sainz as a collect a huge check for a decade of development type of driver.

I think Alonso retires and Sainz gets his seat with his blessing and possibly even mentoring. Being a long-term Honda works team is the best bet for him, Mercedes is a no-go and McLaren seats are taken. I don't think Sainz will want to go to another team and not receive the #1 driver deal, he certainly has the right for such expectations, so Red Bull is highly unlikely in my view.

I do think Alonso will stick around through 2025 to see if there are any promising seats open for 2026.

Mercedes is in sad decline. There is no other promising option other than Checo’s seat.

If Sainz is looking to be no. 1, he’ll probably have to take it in a midfield team and see it as a one step backward for the possibility of two forward.

[CHT]

LH leaving Merc has put tremendous pressure on George Russell to outperform himself as the future No.1 driver at Merc. Although GR is a talented driver, he is still nowhere near WDC level of competence. So Merc is unlikely to bring in a F2 rookie to replace LH as this will put too much pressure on the young driver while at the same time hamper Merc's development for 2026. What Merc needs for 2025 is WDC and a driver who has good experience to provide good feedback for development.

I think Vettel will be the perfect fit for Merc.
4xWDC
German driver
Experience working with RBR
Still relatively young

So Merc's line up for 2025 will likely be Vettel and Russell

As for Sainz, he is likely to replace Lance Stroll at Aston Martin as I believe the team will want to keep an experienced driver like Alonso in 2025 to help in their 2026 challenger.

So for Aston Martin
2025 Alonso and Sainz,
2026 Sainz and Yuki (due to Honda)

[Vanja #66]

I do think Alonso will stick around through 2025 to see if there are any promising seats open for 2026.

Mercedes is in sad decline. There is no other promising option other than Checo’s seat.

If Sainz is looking to be no. 1, he’ll probably have to take it in a midfield team and see it as a one step backward for the possibility of two forward.

Alonso was uncharacteristically deflated after Japan race and this was not the first time this year. He does not want to fight for P5 or P4 anymore, he wants a winning car. The only one still open for next year is RB21. I think he'd take it for sure, but I'm not sure Red Bull would take him. Not only because of Verstappen, they are simply in an internal mess still even though in public it looks ok. So they won't want to introduce even more disturbance right now...

[dialtone]

I do think Alonso will stick around through 2025 to see if there are any promising seats open for 2026.

Mercedes is in sad decline. There is no other promising option other than Checo’s seat.

If Sainz is looking to be no. 1, he’ll probably have to take it in a midfield team and see it as a one step backward for the possibility of two forward.

Alonso was uncharacteristically deflated after Japan race and this was not the first time this year. He does not want to fight for P5 or P4 anymore, he wants a winning car. The only one still open for next year is RB21. I think he'd take it for sure, but I'm not sure Red Bull would take him. Not only because of Verstappen, they are simply in an internal mess still even though in public it looks ok. So they won't want to introduce even more disturbance right now...

RedBull has not had an old driver in more than 10 years. The chances they would go with Alonso are virtually zero.

[Dunlay]

I do think Alonso will stick around through 2025 to see if there are any promising seats open for 2026.

Mercedes is in sad decline. There is no other promising option other than Checo’s seat.

If Sainz is looking to be no. 1, he’ll probably have to take it in a midfield team and see it as a one step backward for the possibility of two forward.

Alonso was uncharacteristically deflated after Japan race and this was not the first time this year. He does not want to fight for P5 or P4 anymore, he wants a winning car. The only one still open for next year is RB21. I think he'd take it for sure, but I'm not sure Red Bull would take him. Not only because of Verstappen, they are simply in an internal mess still even though in public it looks ok. So they won't want to introduce even more disturbance right now...

RedBull has not had an old driver in more than 10 years. The chances they would go with Alonso are virtually zero.

Amidst the political turmoil at Red Bull, Horner seeks a driver capable of challenging Max, potentially shifting the balance of power and bolstering Horner's authority while diminishing Max's sway. Alonso emerges as a fitting contender, though it remains uncertain whether this scenario will unfold. It would be tasty.

I wish the Red Bull fiasco would have unfurled 6 months back before Lewis signed for Ferrari. Would have loved to see Lewis at Red Bull.

[chrisc90]

I don’t see why Horner would want someone to challenge for number 1.

As a team, you want both your drivers to finish the best possible position, so having someone who could pic up 2nd place would do just fine.

All about maximising the points for the team.

[Dunlay]

I don’t see why Horner would want someone to challenge for number 1.

As a team, you want both your drivers to finish the best possible position, so having someone who could pic up 2nd place would do just fine.

All about maximising the points for the team.

Consider the unfolding dynamics: Jos openly advocated for Horner's removal, while Max remained ambiguous in his support. However, when Marko faced potential suspension for leaking chats, Max swiftly backed him. As a team principal and CEO, if your top driver doesn't fully support you, wouldn't you seek an ally who could challenge the incumbent No.1 and weaken your opposition? Horner shouldn't tolerate Jos' influence solely because he's Max's father. Introducing a challenger would either force compliance or elimination of opposition. It's not just about winning championships; it's about Horner solidifying his authority for the future.

Besides, it would be good for F1 show to have challenge for WDC title. Just a complimentary situation.

[CHT]

I don’t see why Horner would want someone to challenge for number 1.

As a team, you want both your drivers to finish the best possible position, so having someone who could pic up 2nd place would do just fine.

All about maximising the points for the team.

there can only be one no. 1 at a time.

[kptaylor]

True, however you should always be looking for the next #1, not a compliant (and slower) #2. RBR already have that.

[johnny vee]

What are the chances of Sainz taking a year to do WEC in 2025? The Ferrari 499P is very good and the strategy team at track is very good too. Then he might have more options for 2026. I think any team that will sign him in F1 will want a multi year deal...not the best option with the change in regulations.

[Zynerji]

What are the chances of Sainz taking a year to do WEC in 2025? The Ferrari 499P is very good and the strategy team at track is very good too. Then he might have more options for 2026. I think any team that will sign him in F1 will want a multi year deal...not the best option with the change in regulations.

I think there are too many open contracts for 2025 for Sainz to wait for 2026. Unless 1 year deals start being reported...

[CHT]

True, however you should always be looking for the next #1, not a compliant (and slower) #2. RBR already have that.

Alonso is passed retirement age for F1 drivers, he can't possibly be the future for RBR.

RBR is a marketing tool for Redbull energy drinks, and their choice of 2nd driver is likely to be non-European to maximize marketing exposure.

e.g. Thais, Russian, Mexican, Australian etc.

So its possible that RBR may offer drivers like Yuki or even Oscar (mark webber is his manager) a seat instead

[PlatinumZealot]

There is a chance Alonso gives his seat up to Sainz if the windtunnel numbers aren't looking too great.

Really don't think Aston will be in a winning position in 2025 or whether Alonso still holds onto the dreams of wins and championships

[CHT]

AM need Alonso to be around for 2026 development. Lance should be replace soon