2022 Scuderia Ferrari F1 Team

[Xyz22]

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... ions_will/

Oh no...

I think that interview is being misinterpreted a little bit.

The story that i've been following is that the floor downforce became unstable after the french GP. Peaky aero map. This benefitted neither Leclerc nor Sainz.

More consistent downforce (a smoother, broader aero map like Red Bull), will benefit Sainz, but it will also benefit Charles.

Downforce being unstable has been reported only by Amus. Also, Ferrari tried the previous floor in Monza and still went with the one introduced in France.

The reality is that from Bahrein to Hungary the average gap between RB and Ferrari was only 0.05%, while from SPA to Abu Dhabi went to 0.55% according to



This massive difference can't be explained by aero being unstable and developments as Red Bull didn't bring any massive upgrade since the summer break IIRC. It's clear that the TD 039 + Reliability issues slowed down the F1 75 massively.

[AR3-GP]

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... ions_will/

Oh no...

I think that interview is being misinterpreted a little bit.

The story that i've been following is that the floor downforce became unstable after the french GP. Peaky aero map. This benefitted neither Leclerc nor Sainz.

More consistent downforce (a smoother, broader aero map like Red Bull), will benefit Sainz, but it will also benefit Charles.

Downforce being unstable has been reported only by Amus. Also, Ferrari tried the previous floor in Monza and still went with the one introduced in France.

The reality is that from Bahrein to Hungary the average gap between RB and Ferrari was only 0.05%, while from SPA to Abu Dhabi went to 0.55% according to



This massive difference can't be explained by aero being unstable and developments as Red Bull didn't bring any massive upgrade since the summer break IIRC. It's clear that the TD 039 + Reliability issues slowed down the F1 75 massively.

It's a two fold problem I think.

1) unstable downforce
2) raising the car in response to TD39 reduced the overall downforce available.

Both of these issues could have happened. That in addition to PU can explain the 0.55% .

I simply don't think some random musings from father Sainz implies anything to worry about. I'm sure Ferrari tell him whatever he needs to hear to make sure he doesn't bad mouth the team in the press.

[Vanja #66]

I don't think it was unstable downforce at first, car was great in France and very good in Hungary (until Ferrari put Leclerc on Hards), so I think the biggest problem came when the car was raised in Belgium and later. Maybe this created some instability with previous suspension setup. Car was again very good in AD, even if Max was cruising.

And there is a breath of hope for Tifosi in 2023, deteriorated relations between Max and Checo and Mercedes gaining some ground with W13. Though none will matter if strategies aren't sorted...

[AR3-GP]

I don't think it was unstable downforce at first, car was great in France and very good in Hungary (until Ferrari put Leclerc on Hards), so I think the biggest problem came when the car was raised in Belgium and later. Maybe this created some instability with previous suspension setup. Car was again very good in AD, even if Max was cruising.

And there is a breath of hope for Tifosi in 2023, deteriorated relations between Max and Checo and Mercedes gaining some ground with W13. Though none will matter if strategies aren't sorted...

Charles lost the car out of the blue during the race in France. That certainly suggest some aerodynamic instability (and by that I mean a more choppy aero map, one that is more sensitive to ride height than previously).

Also, I even cast doubt on Hungary. The Ferrari before France was a beautiful car that worked everywhere right off the truck. Then in France Charles wipes out mid-race, and in Hungary the car was Jekyll and hyde between Friday and Saturday. These are characteristics which were not present before France aero update. The rest of the season simply deteriorated from there as the detuning of the PU became more dramatic, then we learned the PU was completely nerfed at altitude.

[Vanja #66]

Charles lost the car out of the blue during the race in France. That certainly suggest some aerodynamic instability (and by that I mean a more choppy aero map, one that is more sensitive to ride height than previously).

Also, I even cast doubt on Hungary. The Ferrari before France was a beautiful car that worked everywhere right off the truck. Then in France Charles wipes out mid-race, and in Hungary the car was Jekyll and hyde between Friday and Saturday. These are characteristics which were not present before France aero update. The rest of the season simply deteriorated from there as the detuning of the PU became more dramatic, then we learned the PU was completely nerfed at altitude.

Nah, it was an unforced error from Leclerc. Max also had some this year (out of blue) but he was lucky to get out of all of them.

[AR3-GP]

Charles lost the car out of the blue during the race in France. That certainly suggest some aerodynamic instability (and by that I mean a more choppy aero map, one that is more sensitive to ride height than previously).

Also, I even cast doubt on Hungary. The Ferrari before France was a beautiful car that worked everywhere right off the truck. Then in France Charles wipes out mid-race, and in Hungary the car was Jekyll and hyde between Friday and Saturday. These are characteristics which were not present before France aero update. The rest of the season simply deteriorated from there as the detuning of the PU became more dramatic, then we learned the PU was completely nerfed at altitude.

Nah, it was an unforced error from Leclerc. Max also had some this year (out of blue) but he was lucky to get out of all of them.

You say that, but Charles also spun again in FP3 in france very randomly: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/vide ... 37978.html

Max didn't really have anything "out of the blue". Miami he hit the curbs poorly and wiped out so this was driver induced, not car induced. Spain was wind for both he and Sainz. Hungary mid-race was driver induced, as opposed to an inherent aero problem.

It was mentioned in (Amus?). I forget where I read it to be honest. Claim was that france update increased the peak downforce, but made it more peaky in the aero map.

[tpe]

Actually, In would argue that the car was good in France and great in Hungary.
But Ferrari got blinded in the latter and messed up the setup and then simply acted like they had a panic attack (they had).

But I am an armchair TP, I just say what I think see

[Spoutnik]

I made a chart to compare 2022 season for Ferrari drivers, with outlook to Q, R good and bad luck, as well as race starts.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/y9hmkw3xu1k3m ... .xlsx?dl=0

I'm open to well argumented changes to certain races (especially regarding poor pit stops for Sainz that were mentioned a lot, but I only noticed 1 important mess in Netherlands), but it won't change some overall conclusions by much. Few comments:

- poor car setup for race was not considered bad luck, but was noted in Race comments
- team strategy faults, engine DNFs, VSC/SC influences as determining factors for the end result were noted as good or bad luck accordingly
- multiple bad or good luck or combined scenarios are all noted accordingly to keep accurate track
- events in 3 Sprint races omitted to not complicate things too much, as they had basically no influence on Race end results
- SAI late stop in FRA was not noted as strategy fault as he was on those mediums for 22 laps before stop - more than any other driver IIRC
- SAI bad luck with anti stall in AUS not counted as connected to later error and DNF as he obviously pushed too hard
- SAI bad start considered primary cause of DNF in Texas, as he wasn't paying attention to Russell in the rear since he was pushing to defend against Hamilton
- LEC not changing tyres in JPN was not noted as strategy fault since it wasn't so clearly a good decision at the time and LEC was defending P2
- LEC bad luck in Q in BRA was not counted in Race bad luck due to start position offset during Sprint race and overall chaotic Q session altogether (although arguably he was in a good position for a good Q lap and very often delivers under pressure)
- no comments on really good or really bad races, as this is too difficult to judge due to opposites in good and bad luck in races

Conclusions:
- absolutely rotten luck for LEC in races, a total of 17 bad luck moments in 15 races (and was only lucky in Texas race with SC allowing him to close the gap to front), including strings of 4 and 6 and 3 bad races; it's a small miracle that he finished P2 in WDC
- good luck for SAI in races, 11 beneficial and 6 bad luck race developments and also 2 good developments in Q due to LEC and others' engine penalties (USA omitted as LEC was pushing in Q as well)
- not too different luck in Q, but LEC had 5 bad situations vs 3 for SAI
- really bad starts for SAI in exactly half of the races (2 are with *) and one single good start in SIN due to starting on drier part of track
- only 4 races with no clear influence of luck on end results of either, LEC was better in all and SAI crashed out in 2 of them (AUS and JPN)
- in 3 races where luck only slightly influenced end result (good for SAI and or bad for LEC), LEC still finished ahead

OVERALL NUMBERS:

FINISHED AHEAD IN QAULY:
LEC 15 - 7 SAI (15 - 3 on merit)

FINISHED AHEAD IN RACE:
LEC 12 - 9 SAI (11 -1 on merit, only FRA finish ahead for SAI was on merit, since even with reverse LEC would have hard time being better)

As I said, I hope for good arguments for any changes in any comment or interpretation, though I don't think I will accept any arguments beneficial for LEC as I am likely slightly biased towards him as it is.

Thank you for you work, I appreciate it.
I'm not even sure Sainz was faster than Leclerc in France to be honest.
Overall, it's a pretty concerning season for Carlos. He lost what makes him strong last season : consistency, and being cold headed.

Nevertheless at the end of the year he was more confortable with the understeer. He outqualified Leclerc at Austin. He finished ahead of him at Mexico. He had a similar race pace, at least, at Interlagos... Abu Dhabi was less promising for him but he was not on the fastest strategy.

I think this year will make him stronger as a driver. A bit like Ocon against Ricciardo in 2020 if you see what I mean. Leclerc will help to get the best out of him.

[Vanja #66]

I think this year will make him stronger as a driver. A bit like Ocon against Ricciardo in 2020 if you see what I mean. Leclerc will help to get the best out of him.

I certainly hope he gets better, two DNFs (and another after bad start) on his own was way too much. But if his first 5-6 races are like the ones from this season, he needs to be practically relegated to #2 for the rest of the year. Ferrari can't afford to "lose" points on slower driver. Needless to say, the same goes to Leclerc if he somehow gets slower.

[Spoutnik]

Linked to the earlier discussion

[Mansell89]

Do we anticipate Ferrari could introduce some sort of reliability upgrade to allow their PU to run at full beans?

Reading the recent articles it looks like they are admitting having turned the engine down for reliability and in turn that would explain part of their performance reduction versus Red Bull?

Presumably after Barcelona and Baku that may have been where they had to make a change?

[Alakshendra]

I think this season somehow was about Adrian Newey genius work and TD which not only impacted F1-75 but also lead to Ferrari's panic.

Bad strategies and inconsistancy in car setup all came into picture once the TD impacted the car.

Not to mention we really need someone who is as good as Newey.

[basti313]

.... Hungary mid-race was driver induced, as opposed to an inherent aero problem. ...

??? on a car that relies on downforce by its aero everything is an aero problem. You are driving an aero problem, you are adjusting your speed and lines to this aero problem.
I am really surprised by the wording and the difference between Max in Hungary and Charles in France...both simply ran out of downforce if you want to call both an aero problem. But it sounds like you make a difference between the two?

...so I think the biggest problem came when the car was raised in Belgium and later. Maybe this created some instability with previous suspension setup. Car was again very good in AD, even if Max was cruising.

I would say, that we saw the issues that most teams had during this season just occurring with the TD also on Ferrari. Before they just did not have to lift the ride height. Just look at Oz how the car was blistering fast while jumping like a frog...
I think Merc had to raise from the beginning, Ferrari had to do it after the TD, Haas maybe also with the TD....this made the cars more difficult. If the bottoming defines your ride height, you are screwed on the setup window, you get a peaky and more unstable downforce....

So I agree with you, once they get the floor and ride height sorted, it should be closer again.

If we want to do politics the TD was the first attempt to bring the low runners into the same trouble as for example Merc. It worked for Ferrari. Now they need to level again with the new floor rule to also bring RedBull into the right field.

Do we anticipate Ferrari could introduce some sort of reliability upgrade to allow their PU to run at full beans?

Sure. Peak performance is ok in Q, this is just a question of reliability. I would also see the same room at Merc. Their peak performance looks fabulous if you look how Ham defended for one lap to Per or how he blasted by Sai. This is an interesting topic, there will be a lot to come.

Not to mention we really need someone who is as good as Newey.

I do not think so. Newey played his genius with the knowledge of the porpoising. He said that it was well known to him before just recently in an interview.
BUT Merc, Ferrari, both have people from the same time in their teams and people who encountered the issue in other series. They just did not listen to them. Now they know it and things will go on as before. RedBull had a head start, but I see no reason why the others should not be able to catch up.

[AR3-GP]

.... Hungary mid-race was driver induced, as opposed to an inherent aero problem. ...

??? on a car that relies on downforce by its aero everything is an aero problem. You are driving an aero problem, you are adjusting your speed and lines to this aero problem.
I am really surprised by the wording and the difference between Max in Hungary and Charles in France...both simply ran out of downforce if you want to call both an aero problem. But it sounds like you make a difference between the two?

It's entirely subjective on my part. I think verstappen pressed the throttle too hard in Hungary (or clutch or whatever).

Whereas I felt that Charles spinning in France was very out of the blue. There was no sudden driver input. It happened not only in the race, but also in FP3 which shows how on edge the car was (after the update imo). They made an absolutely massive change to the front of the floor. Its hard to ignore it.

[tpe]

Linked to the earlier discussion

My Italian are rusty.
What does it say?