superdowg316 wrote:Here's the important thing, and I know so as I've been inside motorsports: Lap times and how many laps cars do DOES NOT MATTER. The whole point of testing is trying something until it breaks or does something you want and getting a feel. Also important is every team is different. Mercedes are going for reliability and data collecting at the moment, which is why they're going so long each day. Sure, a fast laptime here and there is good, but it means nothing. Sauber were fastest in testing last year, the year before at the same circuit during mid season testing, Mac Chilton posted the fastest laptime of the whole day/testing session. McLaren are trying different things out on the engine to see what works and what doesn't and let's be fair, for a whole new engine layout after fixing it, their distance is very impressive .
I feel you're being a bit unfair to those being skeptical. Most (me included, I admit) are not pessimistic to a degree because they had trouble on one day - it's more because there are various little signs that are all too reminiscent of last year.
I generally agree with you, we certainly shouldn't write them off. But I think looking at how testing went, I think we can agree that things aren't looking
that promising - or as promising as most of us would want to see after their struggles in 2015.
If we look at Mercedes running, now that is a team that is seemingly on top of things. They've had a flawless 2014 and 2015 and this test shows a team in control. Does that mean they'll be quickest? Hardly. But at the very least, they are as efficient as they can be, getting the absolute maximum out of what they obviously set out to achieve.
Testing is very limited. Ideally, you want to gather as much data as possible, as these are one of the rare opportunities to see the 'package' and all the components you've built over winter running. Yes, it's better to have problems in testing than when the season starts, but losing an entire day sitting in the garage while your rivals are out running is not what you'd want. You want to be outthere, seeing your components work and gathering data on how well they work and how that data correlates to the simulations you've been running.
A team with more problems tells me that things are not running the way they should. And that in itself is worrying and why I am skeptical at this point. I'm not expecting miracles and they are up against very strong opposition that had a working car last year and where this year for most is a mere "evolution" of an already very strong package. McLaren-Honda doesn't have that luxury and everything I've seen so far does not suggest to me that they are on top of their game yet.
I don't think looking at all those signs and naming them make me a pessimist. If they had a working competitive package last year, I'd be more confident, but they didn't. Which is why I'm less concerned when Ferrari has an off day with issues - because they did have a competitive package last year - a baseline that did work.