Fulcrum wrote: ↑04 Aug 2019, 17:41
Driver options for Red Bull.
Hamilton - no chance.
Bottas - if let go by Mercedes in favour of Ocon, actually one of the more realistic options.
Vettel - no chance.
Leclerc - no chance.
Gasly - the incumbent, but looks to have been destroyed with half a season to go. I expect he'll be gone soon.
Sainz - no chance, under contract.
Norris - no chance, under contract.
Magnussen - must have some chance, but rather small.
Grosjean - no chance.
Perez - could be a decent option.
Stroll - no chance.
Kubica - no chance.
Russell - could be a decent option.
Ricciardo - no chance.
Hulkenberg - could be a decent option.
Albon - could be a decent option.
Kvyat - could be a decent option.
Giovinazzi - no chance.
Raikkonen - old, but could perform the role as per Webber previously.
Shortlist to replace Gasly:
Bottas - experienced, has raced at the front.
Magnussen - experienced, limited/no experience at the sharp end.
Perez - experienced, never consistently at the front, but has taken chances when they were presented before.
Russell - inexperienced.
Hulkenberg - experienced, but has made mistakes at critical moments.
Albon - inexperienced.
Kvyat - experienced, has prior experience of Red Bull, also has baggage from Red Bull.
Raikkonen - extremely experienced, ex- champion, lots of experience racing at the front, old.
I think the critical decision resides with Red Bull choosing to retain Gasly somewhere, versus jettisoning him altogether.
If they elect to retain him within the family, it means they will promote from within (Albon or Kvyat), and send Gasly back to Toro Rosso.
If they elect to boot him completely, then an external candidate becomes much more likely. Of the candidates I've listed, Russell is too young, Magnussen probably too mediocre, Hulkenberg can be quick but is prone to making errors. Perez is very steady, although no faster than Hulkenberg. That leaves Bottas and Raikkonen. Raikkonen is probably bound up in a contract that couldn't be escaped without paying out - and is old, albeit still very sprightly - which would leave Bottas.
Considering Red Bull usually hire internally, that would suggest Albon or Kvyat, but the second Red Bull seat must be hotting up with every race Gasly continues to under-perform.