Silly Season 2017/2018

[ChrisDanger]

Who is Wheirlin?

I have seen various alternative spellings on here. I think we all know who he means.

Besides, even google can work it out (without any context).

[Squid]

My "realistic" predictions: There will be no earth shattering moves.

Mercedes: Hamilton, Bottas
Ferrari: Vettel, Raikkonen
Red Bull: Verstappen, Ricciardo
Force India: Perez, Ocon
Williams: Stroll, Massa
Haas: Grosjean, Magnussen
Toro Rosso: Sainz, Gasly
McLaren: Alonso, Vandoorne
Sauber: Ericsson, Giovinazzi
Renault: Hulkenberg, Kubica

Bottas is doing a very good job at securing his seat, Mercedes will only need someone better if Ferrari replaces Kimi with someone better.

Speaking of Ferrari, Vettel will probably secure Kimi's seat for one more season as they work well together and Kimi is not a threat. With their technical advantage shrinking every year, Mercedes lets out a sigh of relief.

Verstappen is running short on patience, but I don't think he'll move next season. He's very young, has a long career ahead of him so he doesn't need to rush. Ricciardo is also doing well at Red Bull and realistically there's no better place for him to be next season.

Force India is kind of a wildcard, since the future of the team itself is a bit uncertain at this point. I'm keeping Perez and Ocon planted here. Ocon is just starting out and there's no better place for Perez at the moment.

Williams will keep Stroll and Massa. Stroll pays their bills and Massa keeps Martini happy, plus he's still a decent, consistent driver who is more than happy to stay for one more year.

Haas already said they're keeping their lineup.

Toro Rosso / Red Bull won't keep Gasly waiting for one more season. Sainz is or was looking for a way out and Kvyat is crashing his way out. The drama with Sainz appears to have died down, so as Sainz outperforms Kvyat pretty handily, is somewhat less crash prone, and there's no realistic place for him to go either, Sainz it is.

McLaren keeps their lineup. They have no one better to replace Vandoorne with, and as a rookie he is still on the learning cuirve. There's no place for Alonso in the top teams, so he endures one more year before either commiting to McLaren or leaving F1 altogether.

Sauber keeps Ericsson because he basically owns the team, and Giovinazzi gets Wehrlein's seat as part of a deal with Ferrari for cheaper 2018 engines.

Renault keeps Hulkenberg and replaces Palmer with Kubica. They are investing a lot in him right now and if his simulator performance translates to the real track his PR to Performance ratio will be unbeatable.

To those who are gone:

Even if offered, I doubt Kvyat would accept a role as a reserve or test driver for Red Bull or Toro Rosso if he gets fired. He goes on to race in some other series.

Wehrlein slides in as a reserve driver for Mercedes and prays that a seat opens for him in Mercedes or Force India in 2019. As a stretch, he could be part of a deal for Mercedes engines to McLaren in 2019 if Honda doesn't improve in 2018.

Palmer goes on to do features for Sky Sports F1 and commentate on Free Practice sessions.

[NathanOlder]

The likes of Kvyat and Palmer need to head over to formula e while they still can. With BMW Mercedes and now Porsche all confirmed to be joining in the next 2 years, getting in there now and trying to establish themselves is the best thing they can do.

Right now every manufacturer would want Di Grassi or Buemi. They are easily the strongest finishers. And both were thrown in the dump by F1. So Kvyat and Palmer need to go , and go NOW

[basti313]

The likes of Kvyat and Palmer need to head over to formula e while they still can. With BMW Mercedes and now Porsche all confirmed to be joining in the next 2 years, getting in there now and trying to establish themselves is the best thing they can do.

Right now every manufacturer would want Di Grassi or Buemi. They are easily the strongest finishers. And both were thrown in the dump by F1. So Kvyat and Palmer need to go , and go NOW

Yes I agree. The best seats besides F1 will be in Formula E, once the manufacturers are all there. The only problem is, that money does not play a role for them. We have seen in DTM and WEC, that there are no paydrivers around, also no good looking sponsor guys (Russian market...). Only the best drivers, very close competition.
With WEC and DTM down, we will have all the top notch drivers knocking the door...I can not see a place for Palmer or Kvyat without E-experience. They should have moved a year ago.

[FrukostScones]

Fer: BOT/RAI (because to finish first you need 2 finnish first.)
Merc: VET/HAM (no one in Germany actually cares much about Mercedes F1, see fan survey, but here is your German driver)
RB: VER/RIC
FORCE UNIVERSE: Ozon/Wehrlein
Renault: HUL/PER
TR-Honda: SAI/ Panasonic (after Kvy was fired after 3 races)
Haas:
Sauber: ERI/The MBT
McLaren(Honda): ALO/VAN
Williams: BUT/STR

[NathanOlder]

The first 2 lines. Bravo Sir. Bravo.

[Manoah2u]

that first one is absolutely for the win.

[NSP]

According to Ted (qualifying notebook):
VET/RAI to stay at Ferrari 1 more year.
BOT/Merc negotiating 1 or 2 year contract.
VET eyeing a Merc seat for 2019.

[f1universe]

According to Ted (qualifying notebook):
VET/RAI to stay at Ferrari 1 more year.
BOT/Merc negotiating 1 or 2 year contract.
VET eyeing a Merc seat for 2019.

I can't believe Ferrari is OK with only one year from Vettel unless they have something arranged with Verstappen for 2019.

[Phil]

Fer: BOT/RAI (because to finish first you need 2 finnish first.)
Merc: VET/HAM (no one in Germany actually cares much about Mercedes F1, see fan survey, but here is your German driver)

AGAIN: Why in gods name would Vettel want to go to Mercedes when he is comfortably sitting in arguably the sports most wanted seat (a Ferrari seat, no better, a winning Ferrari seat) with a team absolutely catered around making sure he is finishing in the best possible position? Compare that to the Mercedes, that are playing a very open game of "we want the best WCC result" but beyond that have equality going on. Why also would he go there with Hamilton there?

That fairy tale bubble he has going on at Ferrari? I am very doubtful he would have that at Mercedes as long as Hamilton is there. Just look at how Rosberg and Hamilton both nearly pulled down that team as they were fighting for the WDC?

I. Just. Dont. See. It.

Sorry.


As I typed up in the Hungary topic - my guess is that Ferrari is considering what to do with Kimi's seat. On one hand, they can be happy with the Finn because having a better driver would upset the order they are otherwise quite happy with. But on some level, there is probably pressure from above to place someone a little bit stronger in that seat, which would point to Bottas. On some level, Alonso could also be linked to that team.

Fact is that Vettel's contract for next year isn't steady yet. Maybe Ferrari are considering either signing Vet alonside Alonso, or driving down Vettels price due to Alonso being available. Or they are contemplating Bottas who is probably stronger than Kimi and Kimi is already doing quite well against Vettel on a good day. Either way, that negotiation is still running. Meanwhile, Vettel, who may be wanted at Mercedes, can use that open seat at Mercedes to negotiate a better deal at Ferrari.

At the end though, I think it's all a matter of negotiation. Vettel will eventually sign at Ferrari because it is a great team and the team has proven this year that they have the ability to fight for championships. That sounds a lot better than moving to a team that will not cater around him as much as Ferrari does and face an undoubtedly stronger opponent in Hamilton.

Hamilton is being all nice to Bottas because he'd rather have Bottas as his team-mate than either Vettel or Alonso. Deep down, I don't think he'd have either to fear, but in the end, you'd rather be fighting another team for the WDC than your own team-mate which he had 3 years in a row with Rosberg. Bottas has just the right ethos. He is "beatable" (so far), he's nice and he plays by the book.

Bottas is in an interesting position. I rate him better than Kimi and who knows how much insight Bottas has over that Mercedes. That IMO makes him attractive to Ferrari. At the end of the day, I think Bottas rather be at Mercedes where he knows he is treated fairly, even if he may have a team-mate that is potentially stronger. But a little bit of luck, fortune and good performance could still make it happen.

So at the end of the day, they'll all be sensible and Mercedes will sign with Bottas, just as Ferrari will probably resign Kimi to keep Vettel happy and retain him.

Which unfortunately leaves Alonso to stay where he is. Which is great for Mercedes and Ferrari, because they will not have to fear him as long as he is not driving for a team who can win races.

The big star on the horizon are both Ricciardo and Verstappen who I believe is on both Ferrari and Mercedes radar, so I think the contracts are shaped to make sure they might have a seat available when either (more so Max) becomes available. Which basically means, Bottas will be on another 1 year with option for 2 years. This will give them plenty of options for 2019 if Hamilton decides to leave, or if they can retain Hamilton, then they could dump Bottas for Max if needs be.

Likewise at Ferrari. Retaining Kimi on a 1 year deal gives them options for later, with Vettel possibly on a multi year contract again (if Vettel approves).

[noname]

At the end though, I think it's all a matter of negotiation. Vettel will eventually sign at Ferrari because it is a great team and the team has proven this year that they have the ability to fight for championships.

There are rumors Vettel wants Ferrari to keep Kimi for 2018.

As for Max my guess is Ferrari prefers to wait a bit till he grows up. They do need drivers pushing themselves out of track, or even a race. Of course there is a risk he will sign with somebody else, but if Ferrari will have competitive car getting him on board will not be that difficult.

[NathanOlder]

If Bottas and Merc get a deal together first, it leaves Ferrari in a stronger position with negotiations with Vettel as they know Vettel cant leave for another big team (he wont be tempted by Mclaren). They can then keep the price of Vettel down and even put what ever driver they want next to him.

Bottas signs for Merc , then Alonso comes out and says "ill race for free for Ferrari"

Vettel will then do what, other than stay ?

[Jolle]

If Bottas and Merc get a deal together first, it leaves Ferrari in a stronger position with negotiations with Vettel as they know Vettel cant leave for another big team (he wont be tempted by Mclaren). They can then keep the price of Vettel down and even put what ever driver they want next to him.

Bottas signs for Merc , then Alonso comes out and says "ill race for free for Ferrari"

Vettel will then do what, other than stay ?

If Vettel stays with Ferrari, they won't challenge team dynamics to put Alonso next to him. Alonso has a history of being disruptive and by that a liability to a team. It looks like (again) that Kimi is making good progress for the second half of the season and is close enough to Vettel without being a problem. A well working team is worth a lot. For the same reason I see a second year of Bottas at Mercedes. Alonso would either go to Renault or stay at McLaren.

It's going to be fun when the RedBull contracts expire. The current superstars (Hamilton, Alonso, Kimi and Vettel) aren't getting any younger and in long term, Daniel and Verstappen are the key. Lots of one year contracts coming season

[Phil]

If Vettel stays with Ferrari, they won't challenge team dynamics to put Alonso next to him. Alonso has a history of being disruptive and by that a liability to a team. It looks like (again) that Kimi is making good progress for the second half of the season and is close enough to Vettel without being a problem. A well working team is worth a lot. For the same reason I see a second year of Bottas at Mercedes. Alonso would either go to Renault or stay at McLaren.

I agree with this, but I think Ferrari are a bit in a curious spot. They've not been fighting for the championship for years and now they have a genuine shot, though some might argue (me included) that over the course of the season, Mercedes looks to be in a stronger position.

If Mercedes grabs both championships again this year, it will be a blow to Ferrari. The WCC is IMO out of reach already and thus there is a need to justify Kimis seat. Mercedes is doing a better job with two more competitive drivers (among each other) - it may be weakening their WDC ambitions, but it is certainly helping their WCC cause.

With new negotiations about a fairer price money distribution with the new owners of F1 and who knows, Ferrari may be under pressure to adapt its style in the future and may have to focus more on the WCC as a means of getting back some of that investment.

So on some level, perhaps there is pressure to put a more competitive driver in that second seat. I'm not sure Alonso is that desired (besides a means to stir the pot a little), depending on how cocky Vettel is in his own contract negotiations... The other question is, if Bottas is in fact an option for Ferrari, if Vettel would mind that or not. There must be a reason why he hasn't signed yet - unless Vettel is just happy to wait as well - though as Nathan says, waiting too long and his negotiation position will be weakened by a lack of other strong drive being available.

But yeah, I second that a well working team is worth a lot, which is why I think both Bottas, Vettel, Mercedes and Ferrari will be sensible in the end.

[Silent Storm]

We have to remember Kimi has had 2 DNF till now and brake issue in Canada and front tyre issue in Silverstone. WCC could have been closer, the team knows the details better than us and they will decide whether to keep Kimi or not on that, whether he is struggling or just plain slow nobody knows, we have seen glimpses of old Kimi at times, sometimes it gives the feeling that he is leashed like yesterdays race, like he doesn't know it yet that he is their No2 driver and the balance would never be perfect for him.