Silly Season 2016/2017

[Jolle]

If Gasly (Torro Rosso) and VanDoorne (McLaren) are comming in and Kimi stay's another year. Who will have to go? Button, Massa, Guitierrez?

I guess Palmer, Button if he waits for Ron to make up his mind and Massa if he doesn't wait and goes to Williams.

I can see Kvyat ending up at Renault, together with Massa or, more likely, Magnussen (or Ocon of course)

[Vasconia]

It seems that Carlos Sainz will stay another year in TR. I hope he is right about it because he will need to find a new seat for 2018.

[iotar__]

If Gasly (Torro Rosso) and VanDoorne (McLaren) are comming in and Kimi stay's another year. Who will have to go? Button, Massa, Guitierrez?

A. I thought Kvyat is as good as gone although it would be funny if he was quicker than Sainz the rest of the season and they would be forced to keep him. Good start for Renault would be to fire Palmer and everyone who hired him. Ocon? They're not even confident enough to put him in GP2. Magnussen is staying. Replacing Massa with Button makes no sense.

B. Hard to guess because Renault is a mess looking for scapegoats:
- firstly Abiteboul and Bell are having conversations through the media whether it's still OK to suck: http://en.f1i.com/news/51945-renault-no ... start.html http://en.f1i.com/news/52122-no-specifi ... assis.html
- Then someone's leaking that Vasseur is not gelling well with the team (how about team should gel with TP?) along with Allison rumours replacing no one knows who - Bell, Chester? http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/124734., Meanwhile their "podium capable design" finally developed and with decent engine is dead last and they are surprised that half a year of wasting time and then bad decisions is costly.

They lose Grosjean (that's their "podium capable design") and wannabe TP says it's not a big deal, then they hire Palmer god knows why, then they lose Maldonado which leaves them with bad, inexperienced and unreliable line up. Their rumoured solutions to challenge Merc: hire 36 old Massa unwanted at Williams or Sainz unwanted by RB and not available . The latter with Magnussen would make their line up even less reliable of course.

[dodds_turbo]

Carlos Sainz confirmed staying on with RBR / Toro Rosso for 2017. Christian Horner 'hints' that Danil Kvyat will likely be his team mate:

"I'd be surprised [if Sainz did have a new team mate]. I think Dany [Kvyat] is continuing his development, you can see he is finding his feet now, and there is not an obvious candidate knocking on the door at the moment that would warrant that seat.
...
"We are not short of talent in our stable. It's a luxury issue really. We are set in RBR for the next two-and-a-half years."

Source: F1.com http://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headl ... -deal.html

[Jolle]

If Gasly (Torro Rosso) and VanDoorne (McLaren) are comming in and Kimi stay's another year. Who will have to go? Button, Massa, Guitierrez?

A. I thought Kvyat is as good as gone although it would be funny if he was quicker than Sainz the rest of the season and they would be forced to keep him. Good start for Renault would be to fire Palmer and everyone who hired him. Ocon? They're not even confident enough to put him in GP2. Magnussen is staying. Replacing Massa with Button makes no sense.

Button to Williams makes a lot of sense. He's the perfect "behaved playboy" for Martini plus all the press of him returning where it all started is worth millions alone.

[PlatinumZealot]

The Williams should be the faster car for Next year, so not a bad move for old no grip.

[Manoah2u]

Mercedes: Hamilton-Rosberg
Ferrari: Vettel - Perez
RedBull: Verstappen - Ricciardo
Force India: Hulkenberg - Wehrlein
Toro Rosso: Sainz - Gasly
Williams : Button - Bottas
Mclaren : Alonso - Vandoorne
Renault : Massa - Nasr
Haas : Grosjean - Guiterrez
Manor: Rossi - Ocon
Sauber: Ericsson - Magnussen

[Zynerji]

Grosjean to Ferrari
Massa to Haas
Button to Williams
Van Doorne to McLaren

My guess!!

[Vasconia]

Mercedes: Hamilton-Rosberg
Ferrari: Vettel - Perez
RedBull: Verstappen - Ricciardo
Force India: Hulkenberg - Wehrlein
Toro Rosso: Sainz - Gasly
Williams : Button - Bottas
Mclaren : Alonso - Vandoorne
Renault : Massa - Nasr
Haas : Grosjean - Guiterrez
Manor: Rossi - Ocon
Sauber: Ericsson - Magnussen

And Massa being replaced by Sainz for the 2018. Though I would prefer to see a Sainz-Massa couple because his experience would be very valuable to develop the car.

[Schuttelberg]

If I were Ferrari, I'd offer Jenson Button a fat two year contract.

[Manoah2u]

If I were Ferrari, I'd offer Jenson Button a fat two year contract.

I believe Maranello flirted with Button before, IIRC it was around 2012 when he was shining in the less-then-perfect Mclaren.
I can't remember why JB didn't take that chance, unless it was nothing more but a mediaflirt.

I'd personally also rather see JB @ Ferrari instead of Williams - he's been there before, and the Williams team isn't known for its 'loyalty' to its drivers. Neither is it longer known for being a topteam. It did extremely well in 2014, especially regarding its former shape, but it's drifting down again, and i'm doubtfull they'll climb back to the top in 2017. I'm also not convinced Ferrari is going to be there in 2017, but I hold my wages higher for Ferrari than for Williams.

I also think the Vettel-Button combo could work well, Button brings a vast resource of experience - even if he might not be so wonderfull in personally developing a car - I believe Vettel is better at that, so i'd say the combination could work. I also think Button's communication and feedback - not to mention respect - for the team would be higher rateable compared to Kimi.
The only downside i see is inevitably Button's age.
He has a couple of years in him but after that, it's not really a career fit anymore.

Perez on the other hand is still a young gun with hunger - Vettel obviously hasn't lost his appetite, but he's a 4-time WDC and GP winner, Perez has not yet won a GP and has hunger both for the Win as the Championship. With that however comes also the downside: he hasn't yet won a GP - and moved to a Mercedes powered stable.

Raikkonen/Bottas/Button/Perez/Grosjean/Ricciardo

seems to be the picklist.
Let's scratch Raikkonen out, as inevitably, he's also facing the natural end of his F1 career.
So BOT/BUT/PER/GRO/RIC

Ric has a contract for up to 2018, and I can see RB moving up to be a title contender again, and I think RIC might find himself a Schumacher-esque approach @ Ferrari regarding Vettel, so he'd end up being Vettel's Webber or Schumi's Barrichello......so scratch out RIC

BOT/PER/GRO

Bottas imho has not shown enough consistancy, growth, pace, maturity to have much interest for Ferrari, especially how he drove at Baku imho is rather....unprofessional, really. I'm not saying he does bad, i'm not sayin'he does good, and that's why i wonder why on earth he'd end up at ferrari. Hasn't won a race, hasn't shown potential WDC material.

leaves 2

GRO/PER

Grosjean is interesting, he brings experience, stability (has been different before) and has shown he has speed, driver skills, and hunger for Win & Championship. But, once again, not a GP winner. I do think he's able to develop, and his skills in the HAAS has shown he definately has superb F1 skills. Guiterrez is underwhelming and doesn't do the car justice, but i'd say Romain is 'outperforming' the car (or lets say squeezing all out of it).

finally, again,
Perez, as mentioned above.

It's rather tied imho between GRO/PER.
Grosjean has the benefit of more experience and perhaps a tad more stability, and being in a Ferrari-technical stable.
Perez has the benefit that he - imho - is faster and 'bite-ier', but that inevitably could potentially lead being more prone to crash.....upside is he is younger.

In the end it's rather about what combo serves Ferrari best in multiple wins and hopefully WCC.

Vettel-Grosjean
Vettel-Perez

VET-GRO would be the more obvious choise knowing Ferrari's driver selection history/preference.
VET-PER would be the wild card, going into 'new' territory - perhaps something to go for after all these years?

Lastly but not least, in Perez' favour; Carlos Slim stated he's willing and able to go deep into the pockets to slam a significant amount of money on the table to get Sergio over there. With Mexico growing again as a country of interest, also for Ferrari, and Mexico F1 GP being the hottest new addition to the F1 calendar, i am leaning towards Ferrari going with Perez - if they will i'm rather sure the deal will be made public a week before the Mexican GP, benefitting from publicity aswell as spooning in even more enthousiastic mexicans and Ferrari fans to the Mexican GP. (announcing it during the GP weekend might prove a bit tricky for people to change plans to go to their 'hero', a week up front would change that significantly).

A french driver doesn't make too much sense at this moment for Ferrari - unless Grosjean brought 5 secs by his presence alone but he doesnt. Ferrari already has an european in the stable in the form of Vettel. I also wonder what benefit Grosjean's sponsors would bring to Ferrari - especially versus Perez.

Mexico, and including latin-america is another story alltogether. There are many rich latinamericans and Ferrari has much to offer there also as an image. Perez as a Ferrari driver would boost his worth and presentability in Mexico, and it would immediately boost Ferrari - and liased companies in Mexico and LatinAmerica. That includes, FIAT.

[ESPImperium]

On balance id take this as a grid for 2017:

Mercedes AMG: 6] Rosberg / 44] Hamilton (Both drivers will be eventually contracted to end of 2018, Rosberg with a 2 year deal i think)
Scuderia Ferrari: 5] Vettel / 22] Button (Give Button a €15m a year pay, a increase on his €12m at the moment for two years, contracts for both will run out end of 2018)
Red Bull-Renault: 3] Riccardo / 33] Verstappen (Both contracted till end of 2018 i believe)
Williams-Mercedes: 77] Bottas / 98] Wherlien (Both on a years deal, lets see Pascal further up the order)
Force India-Mercedes: 11] Perez / 27] Hulkenberg (Hulk till end of 2017 and Perez till end of 2018)
Scuderia Toro Rosso-Renault: 55] Sainz / xx] Lynn (I think STR will give Lynn the shout as i think Gasly will be given one more GP2 year, but P1 seat time in Lynns car)
McLaren-Honda: 14] Alonso / xx] Vandoorne
Haas-Ferrari: 8] Grosjean / 21] Gutierrez
Renault Sport F1: 20 Magnussen / 26] Kvyat (Renault were looking for Danny at the end of last year, but Palmers money was needed and he paid up for the year, id expect them to go agin for Danny this year)
Sauber-Honda: xx]Money Talks / xx] Honda Driver (They will take two drivers with a budget, and i think Ericsson and Nasr have shown they could be a capable number 2 at a mid pack team, its time to get some fresh blood)
Manor MRT-Mercedes: 53] Rossi / xx] Ocon (Time to give Rossi a full charge, and also time for Ocon to be given a chance. Also Rio is not what id called F1 class, he is a good GP2 driver, but F1 is just a cut above him i feel)

There isn't many drivers there waiting to come through, and i worry for the next 3-5 years for drivers coming through as theres very few drivers who id class as the next superstar in GP2 or similar. The next generation is very thin on the ground i feel so some older drivers will have to drive on for longer.

[NL_Fer]

What is Ferrari's history with drivers? They used to swap around every 3 years, than Schumi came and stayed for 11 years and Massa for 8. I see Vettel ending his carreer in the red car. So what do they aim for as a second? Raikkonen still seems to be an expensive option for a nr2. Grosjean or Perez could be another Massa, speed of the nr1 but no champion like Vettel/Schumi/Hamilton/(Alonso)

Would it not be smart to compare them first in the Haas?

Wherlein to FI, Ocon to Manor and Sirotkin to Renault.

[Racer X]

I keep hearing the American Commentary People talk about Kimi retaining his seat and MAYBE Perez taking it.

So apparently who ever is giving them info is hinting more at Kimi keeping his seat one more year then him leaving if he is replaced by Perez or who ever.

[Jolle]

Looks like everybody is holding placed as long as possible for when the big boys contracts ends. I think that's 2018 for Mercedes and RedBull and 2017 for McLaren and Ferrari.

Bit of fun: because Max is doing his dad's career in reverse, his next ride would be Mercedes and then ending his career (in 15 years or so) at Renault.