AshSIreland wrote: ↑04 Sep 2017, 11:03
f1316 wrote: ↑04 Sep 2017, 09:01
RPieter wrote: ↑04 Sep 2017, 08:27
Hi guys,
What's your prediction of which of the remaining tracks is a Merc, and which a Ferrari,... or even a RB track?
- Singapore
- Malaysia
- Japan
- US
- Mexico
- Brasil
- Abu Dhabi
I was asking myself the same question and came to the conclusion that:
- Ferrari have a great chance to win (and maybe 1-2) in Singapore
- they have a very good chance in Abu Dhabi
- they should be right in the hunt in Brazil
But there's a four race stretch after Singapore that I think are just nailed on Mercedes tracks, and that would lead one to believe that Ferrari need something unusual or to capitalise on a mistake in order to win even the drivers championship.
Now they have a new PU to come and maybe that will help (let's assume for now thete won't be turbo related grid penalties) but I think it's more than pure engine power and Lewis alluded to the fact that Ferrari are strong when they can ADD downforce to their car; their low downforce package is not strong at all and this would seem to make sense as RB's competitiveness - despite having a less powerful engine - was good versus Ferrari both at Monza and Baku. RB seem to be able to maintain a better balance with low DF.
I think Spa worked for Ferrari because they actually didn't trim as much df - they kept it for the middle sector, perhaps with an eye on tyre wear also -so this may mean Suzuka and to some extent Malaysia are decent for them.
Still, I suspect we'll come to Abu Dhabi with the title still open but a long shot for Seb.
Interesting. I hadn't thought about the difference between a low- and high-downforce setup for the same car.
Wrt your predictions
1. Couldn't RB be in the mix in Singapore?
2. Would you have said Malaysia and Mexico were nailed on Mercedes at the start of the season? Average speeds in Sepang are not unlike Bahrain, where Seb won. And Mexico has its twists and turns (albeit with a high top speed)
I want to put it into a spreadsheet when I get the chance between the work I'm supposed to be doing
but working it through in my mind I have:
- if all goes how I would expect, Ham wins by 16 points
- if Vettel manages 2nd at the strongest Merc tracks & Kimi gets 2nd in what I see as Ferrari tracks (Sing + AD) then Ham wins by Six points
So all being what I'd call 'normal', Ham wins either way, in my mind. The X factor is whether Ham has the same kind of quali struggles in the low speed high downforce package as he did in Monaco + to a slightly lesser extent Hungary.
As you say, what if an RB gets ahead? What if Bottas and the RBs are ahead on the grid in Singapore?
To me, it kinda needs that kind of thing and/or other unforeseen circumstances for Merc - with zero issues or grid penalties for Vettel - for Ferrari to win the WDC. I personally think it's unlikely that a new PU will bridge the gap we've seen on low downforce unless allied to a much more effective low df package, but this is also based around current relative strengths and weaknesses (for all we know Merc could be stronger in Sing or Ferrari's Spa compromise with a new PU could be the fastest package in Suzuka).
Like I say, I'll try and formulate thoughts into something a bit more illustrative later.