2016 United States Grand Prix - COTA, 21-23 October

[dren]

If Hamilton doesn't botch the start, he'll win.

[Manoah2u]

Let's see how focused Hamilton is this weekend. If he's absolutely 'on it', he'll have a big chance to completely 'own' this entire GP.
The big problem however is that - logically - lewis is naturally a bit 'held back' due to the fact his Merc is not reliable, and that he can't
afford another blow-up or gearbox loss. So the big question is - will Lewis even be able to go 'all out'? He runs the risk of having yet another
breakdown, which would most definately end his WDC possibilities.

On the other side, if he 'owns' Nico this weekend in every session, qualification, and win the GP by a good margin, he'll send off a hefty message to Rosberg,
whom i'd imagine would feel rather 'influenced' on having the chance that he'll lose out in the end after all, possibly making Nico unstable again, whilst it must be said,
that for a couple of races now, Nico has been solid as a rock.

Either way, it's all in the open still. Vettel's kamikaza move on Rosberg could have easily resulted in a broken rear suspension and/or driveshaft and then Nico would have
been a lot less points ahead of Lewis, AND lose a gearbox and probably a certain 'comfort zone'. One 'tiny' move and everything is completely upside down. If Lewis wins
this one, and Nico gets a DNF, we're in for an absolute treat for the battle of the WDC.

Day vs Night. Black vs Blue, Fight night!

[PlatinumZealot]

Rosberg will choke and retire from sliding off into the barriers. Hamilton controls the race from the front for an easy win.

...sounds like my seven-year-old's predictions.

Smart boy. My genes are certainly shining through.

[bill shoe]

Let's see how focused Hamilton is this weekend. If he's absolutely 'on it', he'll have a big chance to completely 'own' this entire GP.
The big problem however is that - logically - lewis is naturally a bit 'held back' due to the fact his Merc is not reliable, and that he can't
afford another blow-up or gearbox loss. So the big question is - will Lewis even be able to go 'all out'? He runs the risk of having yet another
breakdown, which would most definately end his WDC possibilities.

Lewis really has no choice, he is far enough behind in WDC with four races to go that this U.S. race will be a full-on push in terms of his speed and how he uses his equipment. No reason to be conservative, and really not too much pressure.

It's probably one of those situations where the guy in the lead feels more pressure because the championship is his to lose.

I'm glad Red Bull is now quick enough to keep both Merc cars honest, otherwise Rosberg could cruise to a boring second in each race to lock up the championship.

[bill shoe]

If Hamilton doesn't botch the start, he'll win.

After all the parsing and reparsing of "room to race" rules this season, it will be interesting to see how turn 1 works out if Lewis and Rosberg go in side-by-side. I think that despite Rosberg being generally criticized for his passing, it will actually be Hamilton that has his wings clipped most by the room-to-race rules in turn 1.

[Juzh]

There's bound to be an even more dull race than current average coming up eventually where none of the mercs suffer any kind of problem, starts included. Probably gonna be the US.

[Just_a_fan]

Lewis really has no choice, he is far enough behind in WDC with four races to go that this U.S. race will be a full-on push in terms of his speed and how he uses his equipment. No reason to be conservative, and really not too much pressure.

Indeed. The only hope Hamilton has is to try to win and hope that Rosberg's natural desire to win races makes him make a mistake. Rosberg only needs to finish 2nd in each of the remaining races so Hamilton has to try to win and hope that a Ricciardo, a Vestappen or a Vettel performance can put Rosberg under pressure and take points off him. It's a fairly small hope but it's all he has really.

The way this season has gone, however, I expect Rosberg to win at least two of the remaining races. I also expect Hamilton's poor mechanical luck to strike again dashing all hopes.

I wonder if Hamilton can match, or even overtake, Prost in the total F1 wins table and go to second place behind Michael this season. He ought to be able to assuming his brain stays in gear.

Interestingly, when (as is likely) Rosberg wins the title this year, he will hand the crown of "most wins without a title" back to Stirling Moss. Rosberg is currently the holder of that title having had such a good season this year.

[GoranF1]

Alonso will win!

[Vasconia]

Lewis really has no choice, he is far enough behind in WDC with four races to go that this U.S. race will be a full-on push in terms of his speed and how he uses his equipment. No reason to be conservative, and really not too much pressure.

Indeed. The only hope Hamilton has is to try to win and hope that Rosberg's natural desire to win races makes him make a mistake. Rosberg only needs to finish 2nd in each of the remaining races so Hamilton has to try to win and hope that a Ricciardo, a Vestappen or a Vettel performance can put Rosberg under pressure and take points off him. It's a fairly small hope but it's all he has really.

The way this season has gone, however, I expect Rosberg to win at least two of the remaining races. I also expect Hamilton's poor mechanical luck to strike again dashing all hopes.

I wonder if Hamilton can match, or even overtake, Prost in the total F1 wins table and go to second place behind Michael this season. He ought to be able to assuming his brain stays in gear.

Interestingly, when (as is likely) Rosberg wins the title this year, he will hand the crown of "most wins without a title" back to Stirling Moss. Rosberg is currently the holder of that title having had such a good season this year.

If I am not wrong Nico could be the driver with more victories in a season who doesnt win the WC. If Lewis beats him, of course.

As it already said, Lewis should not be under pressure. He needs to push and win everthing, and wait.

Nico could feel nervous in the verge of winning the WC, the presure of the first time.... Lewis surely knows that feeling.

[Gaz.]

I'd be amazed if Nico is under any pressure at all. All he has to do is turn up and finish 2nd - it couldn't be any easier.

[Just_a_fan]

Nico shouldn't be under pressure but the mind is a funny thing. If you ask him today, he'll say "I've got a good lead and just need to keep my head and collect the points". On Sunday, when the lights go out he'll be worrying about all sorts of things. It's quite natural and entirely understandable. The key is to keep focused on the main point - finish immediately behind Hamilton in each race. No need to make that late move in to a tight corner to try to get ahead. Just track him.

These guys are racers and the hardest thing for them is to not race in order to win, if that makes sense.

[Chuckjr]

I'd be amazed if Nico is under any pressure at all. All he has to do is turn up and finish 2nd - it couldn't be any easier.

Agree. He will win a few more before it's over. Really, it's his to lose at this point. There's not much Hamilton can do. Being fast is not enough now.

Merc still is so much faster. Finishing first or second the rest of the year is not a big ask.

[diego.liv]

Why are you assuming that Lewis will push and let Nico come home an easy second? He'll likely try to stay in front but waiting for Ferrari, Red Bull help to fight Nico

[PhillipM]

If Lewis gets in front and backs Nico into Red Bull or Ferrari then Mercedes will just pit Nico first to get him out of the way, they've prior form on that one!

[iotar__]

Why are you assuming that Lewis will push and let Nico come home an easy second? He'll likely try to stay in front but waiting for Ferrari, Red Bull help to fight Nico

I didn't notice Hamilton being already in front . This thread is something else:
- Rosberg is choking,
- Rosberg is crashing on purpose, like in Spain I guess, why on Earth would he do that anyway?
- Rosberg is getting penalties, bigger penalties of course (why? there's no rule like that), lots of penalties
- Only botched start can prevent Hamilton's certain win, like in Singapore and Suzuka I guess, Hungary, Germany, Baku etc., he botched one in Canada too.
- DNF is a great thing for a change that gives us exciting racing, no one would blame Mercedes, there's your internet logic,

- Last but not least Hamilton through his slow driving is forcing Rosberg to lose places. Excuse me, when did it ever work? How would it ever work without active help from the team? A. It's not likely, it's unlikely and not smart. B. I'm not sure if he was trying to do that but (let's say) the last time it happened in Hungary he ended up with a mistake and off track moment.

Simple: Hamilton needs Rosberg's DNF (aka Mercedes help) or a low scoring race, random event like Hungary '15 tyre choice and other driver crashing. He can also count on bad starts, pitstops, FIA, punctures, Verstappen/Vettel etc.