2017 United States Grand Prix - COTA, 20-22 October

[Moose]

Through the Esses themselves both Ferrari and Red Bull were faster, this is fact.

No it's not - in fact, the Magots/Beckets complex at Silverstone was where Mercedes made up one third of their entire qualifying advantage over the other cars.

[Moose]

I have to interject, because the sector times listed previously are wrong.

The best sector times from qualifying last year show both Mercedes on top of every sector.

Notably - Mercedes were more ahead in the sector with the esses than in the sector with the big straight.

[godlameroso]

Look again, right after turn 7, all the way to turn 8 Hamilton gains .2 alone, but right before the apex of 7 Vettel has made up almost .1, from the time he lost going into 1 & 2 because he was running lower downforce in a bid to neutralize Mercedes straight line advantage.

If you watch the video the commentator states in Spanish that Vettel was flat through 7, Hamilton slightly lifted, yet still managed to gain .2 that's pure engine grunt, not just a great chassis/great driver(Hamilton).

Anyway back on topic, COTA is a completely different circuit than Suzuka, with completely different requirements. The tarmac is not as grippy, it's a bit bumpier, the downforce requirement is greater, temperatures will be warm as far as I can see. At this time of year it's only cool at night, because the air is very dry in the region at the moment(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html check the water vapor loop for yourself), and like most deserts dry air heats up quickly and cools quickly as well, as moisture in the air tends to regulate and stabilize the temperature between day and night. Anyway all this means that track temperatures will pick up quickly and seeing as qualifying and the race are at peak temperatures for the day, I'd say it's too close to call, it all depends on if the sun is shining on the track. If it is then expect +40C track temps, despite ambient temperature being in the upper 20's.

TL;DR it's too close to call.

[dans79]

At this time of year it's only cool at night, because the air is very dry in the region at the moment(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html check the water vapor loop for yourself), and like most deserts dry air heats up quickly and cools quickly as well, as moisture in the air tends to regulate and stabilize the temperature between day and night. Anyway all this means that track temperatures will pick up quickly and seeing as qualifying and the race are at peak temperatures for the day

As of today the forcast is as follows.

Friday - Partly Cloudy, high of 29°C, 20% chance of rain, 79% Humidity
Saturday - AM thunderstorms, high of 29°C, 50% chance of rain, 79% Humidity
Sunday - AM thunderstorms, high of 28°C, 40% chance of rain, 60% Humidity

[Edax]

If you watch the video the commentator states in Spanish that Vettel was flat through 7, Hamilton slightly lifted, yet still managed to gain .2 that's pure engine grunt, not just a great chassis/great driver(Hamilton).

Not necessarely. In one of the previous races Hamilton explained that it is sometimes faster this way. If I rember correctly he was talking about Copse at that time. You can take it flat out but you actually lose more time and exit speed due to tire scrubbing than by applying a slight lift and allowing the tires to bite in.

[zibby43]

Hamilton was very specific in that it was the PU and not the tires. I would assume he can tell the difference.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... 63278/?s=1

Toto: "We didn't see anything on the engine. We looked at all the metrics. We need to really understand what he meant."

"My assumption is that when you are in the lead, and your main competitor has DNFed, you hear things. The same applies for us in the pitwall or on the garage. You just want the race to finish."

Hamilton: "I don't honestly think there's any wrong with the engine. You just point out things that you might forget to tell them after this next meeting."

"I don't think there is anything, I think it was just low . . . short shifting which the engine doesn't like so much. So I think that was it."

[godlameroso]

If you watch the video the commentator states in Spanish that Vettel was flat through 7, Hamilton slightly lifted, yet still managed to gain .2 that's pure engine grunt, not just a great chassis/great driver(Hamilton).

Not necessarely. In one of the previous races Hamilton explained that it is sometimes faster this way. If I rember correctly he was talking about Copse at that time. You can take it flat out but you actually lose more time and exit speed due to tire scrubbing than by applying a slight lift and allowing the tires to bite in.

That's true, good point.

[godlameroso]

Hamilton was very specific in that it was the PU and not the tires. I would assume he can tell the difference.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... 63278/?s=1

Toto: "We didn't see anything on the engine. We looked at all the metrics. We need to really understand what he meant."

"My assumption is that when you are in the lead, and your main competitor has DNFed, you hear things. The same applies for us in the pitwall or on the garage. You just want the race to finish."

Hamilton: "I don't honestly think there's any wrong with the engine. You just point out things that you might forget to tell them after this next meeting."

"I don't think there is anything, I think it was just low . . . short shifting which the engine doesn't like so much. So I think that was it."

That's extremely interesting, must be resonant frequencies.

[Fulcrum]

Assuming no big issues with either Hamilton or Vettel, and they are 1 and 2 after the first lap, how hard will Lewis defend first place if he needs to?

[Moose]

Assuming no big issues with either Hamilton or Vettel, and they are 1 and 2 after the first lap, how hard will Lewis defend first place if he needs to?

As we discussed in the Championship Permutations thread, it's in Hamilton's interest, and very much not in Vettel's interest for them both to DNF.

Of course I expect neither of them wants to win or lose that way, but I'm sure if it came to it, Hamilton will have more pointy elbows in use than Vettel will.

[Phil]

I think Hamilton already demonstrated this in Japan, with his decisive move to the inside. When push comes to shove, as you say, Vettel has more to lose. Of course, how aggressive one is at the start will depend on who is besides him. If Max was starting along side, I'd be more hesitant about the moves I'd be about to make...

[notsofast]

Hamilton can afford to let everyone pass him, except Vettel. Vettel cannot afford to let anyone pass him. Vettel needs to be aggressive with every single opponent.

[Jolle]

It’s not in Hamilton’s nature to crash into his opponent “deliberately “. He does however is a master in a hard defend and generally knows what is going on around him. He also proven in the past he knows when it’s time to yield. Plus, there isn’t much pressure on him and this circuit suits him very well. Even if Vettel makes a (good) move, he will know there will be more opertunities during and after this GP.

[JonoNic]

Ferrari unreliability lost Vettel the WDC this season. The Baku penalty and Malaysian mistake has not really hurt his points haul. So for the last races he should just take the pressure off himself and drive each race on merit and he could easily win all the remaining races. If he does that then he could close a sizable portion of the gap or make even put pressure on Hamilton for next season. However, media and his own team will ramp up the pressure on himself.

[Just_a_fan]

Not sure Vettel winning races but losing the title puts pressure on Hamilton next season.