zac510 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2018, 21:13
I read Alonso's latest comments on motorsport.com - he is claiming that he can predict the first 15 positions of a race with 1 or 2 differences. I've heard him say this kind of thing before a few months ago. Aside from it being a huge confirmation bias on his part - to justify his decision to retire - I wish someone in the media would take him to task on it. Get him to write the first 15 positions of the race on Friday, put it in an envelope.
He obviously meant that the teams have such advanced simulation technology that they can more or less predict all positions if the weather is stable, and ignoring DNFs and accidents. From ALO's point of view, the top 4 to 6 is fixed, he doesn't really care how they rank there. The point is that for his position, things are reasonably predictable.
Basically, he said nothing surprising. The technical nature of F1 is such that performance margins are big enough to be able to make predictions. And when computers can predict the outcome, people are eventually also able to do so, and if not, they will at least feel like if the races have become predictable.
And that is exactly the problem of F1: Too much concentration of money > concentration of workforce > concentration of performance > big performance gaps > difficulty for any car/team out of the big 3 to stir things up.