So what will F1 teams do this year?

[Lotus102]

There are many people who's lives are going to be changed forever for the worse in the very near future and you care about F1 races? Grow up.

The vast majority's lives will not be altered in the slightest once they get over the symptoms. Life will go on and the future beckons us onwards. Stop feeding the "sky is falling in" hysteria.

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

[the EDGE]

I don’t know about teams but have people seen the e-sports race happening tomorrow- I will be watching 1pm GMT

https://the-race.com/esports/real-world ... rts-event/

Motorsport fans will be treated to live race action this weekend as top real-world and virtual racers do battle in The Race’s All-Star Esports Battle.

Formula E championship leader Antonio Felix da Costa is among the world-class drivers who will go head-to-head with gamer-to-racer pioneer Rudy van Buren and amputee racer Billy Monger, in the ground-breaking event that will be streamed live

[the EDGE]

Just found this too

[Just_a_fan]

There are many people who's lives are going to be changed forever for the worse in the very near future and you care about F1 races? Grow up.

The vast majority's lives will not be altered in the slightest once they get over the symptoms. Life will go on and the future beckons us onwards. Stop feeding the "sky is falling in" hysteria.

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

I don't think millions will die at all. I think we'll end up with a similar death rate to "normal" 'flu. That's not great, of course.

And even if millions die worldwide, with 7+ billion on the planet, most will still be unaffected in any way as I mentioned previously. Ironically, the ones that are most affected are unlikely to be living in wealthy nations - the very ones that are running around panicking (or at least the ones the media are aiming at with their stories).

Herd immunity requires fewer than 50% of the population to have been exposed with the pandemic influenza, for example, up to 90+% for things like measles. Assuming COVID-19 is worse than pandemic influenza, we might need 70-80% to give herd immunity. That means that most people, who are healthy enough to get COVID-19 and recover quite happily, need to protect the 20% (the old and those with underlying health issues). To minimise loss of life, we the young/healthy need to take it on the chin, feel rubbish for a week and then move on. We need to do this whilst limiting exposure of those who can't take it so easily. That's why Govts are espousing the self-isolation technique - stay at home, feel rubbish, recover, move on. Don't go to hospitals and other places where old/ill people are gathered together. Don't go visit granny to check if she's OK. Let the medical care system do that. The old and the ill will thank you for it.

Running around shouting "we're all doomed!" isn't going to help one little bit.

[void]

What F1 teams will do, I don't now. But F1 can bring a e-sports championship with the drivers. A little fun for the fans.

[Tim.Wright]

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

Your maths is wrong here. You are looking at the death rate and forgetting the infection rate. You need to multiply the two together to get the overall death rate of the population.

In China 4% of cases were fatal but only 0.006% of people have been confirmed as infected (80k from a population of 1.3b). Based on these number in your circle of 100 people none of them are likely to die or even be infected.

1 person in 400k will die in China, 1 in 6 million is the current rate in USA and 1 in 47k is the current rate in Italy.

These are WHO figures valid as of today btw.

[Wouter]

Just found this too

This will start in about one houre.

[Rodak]

1 person in 400k will die in China, 1 in 6 million is the current rate in USA and 1 in 47k is the current rate in Italy.

So only 53 people will die in the US? That's strange, since this is only beginning and there are already 47 dead in the US, 37 of them here in Washington state. I think your methodology is a little bit off. The issue here in the US is that action is not being taken by the Federal government to limit exposure and slow the infection rate. The CDC estimates that between 40% to 60% will eventually get the disease. At a CFR of 2% (pretty much in the middle of estimates) that predicts something around 3 million deaths in the US. I suspect that is high, but even at a 1% CFR that's 1.5 million deaths.

I'm not crying that the sky is falling, I'm simply presenting data. In China the government acted quickly and strongly to limit contacts by isolating a very large population and it has paid off with a decreasing infection rate. The trick is to do it early, as once the horse is out of the barn it's too late. Here in the US we have had infections in all states and the horse is gone. Hopefully the disease can be slowed to prevent overwhelming hospitals, but it can't be stopped.

Anyone who thinks there will be an F1 season has their head in the sand. There will not be an Italian GP, there will not be a British GP...... I'm curious how the F1 teams that are Italian based will return and once they do, if they will be allowed to leave. Air travel to the US from Europe is now banned, foolishly in my opinion, but there you are.....

[Tim.Wright]

I didn't say or imply 53 will die in the USA...

[Lotus102]

I don't think millions will die at all. I think we'll end up with a similar death rate to "normal" 'flu. That's not great, of course.

Disclosure - I'm not just repeating stuff I read. I worked in the UK healthcare system in various roles for 15 years, and was head of comms for a Primary Care Trust covering a population of nearly half a million during the Swine Flu pandemic. About 70% of my job related to Swine Flu during that period, and quite a bit on other immunisation programmes like measles, mumps and rubella.

'Normal' flu death rate is 0.9%. Real world experience of Covid-19 seems to be between 3% (China) and 8% (Italy). It's going to be at least three times as bad as seasonal flu just in terms of death rate. Because it's a very contagious disease, because immunity is currently 0 and because we have no vaccine, a lot more people will get it than seasonal flu.

Herd immunity requires fewer than 50% of the population to have been exposed with the pandemic influenza, for example, up to 90+% for things like measles.

It doesn't quite work like that. Herd immunity is not just a function of exposure, it's also a function of how contagious an infection is, and Covid-19 seems to be significantly more contagious than flu (as measles is, which is why we need more than 90% (actually around 95%) for any herd immunity effect to work. In those other infections you mention, it requires a systematic immunisation programme.

With flu we generally have a level of existing immunity and vaccinations developed for new strains within months - the degree of herd immunity we achieve is contingent on the success of the immunisation programme. I've seen the term 'herd immunity' misused a huge amount over the past few days. Yes, we generally achieve a degree of herd immunity with seasonal flu, but anything from 30% to half the population can still be at risk, and that's when it goes well. Spanish flu had a first phase that ripped through the population, and then the exact same strain came back and caused even more deaths. One season's exposure was not enough to confer meaningful herd immunity. With measles we had virtually total herd immunity in the late 2000s, but that has started to fail due to antivaxx campaigns etc.

You do not get herd immunity by exposure alone - or rather, if you do happen to get herd immunity that way, it's because you've killed off all the vulnerable people.

Assuming COVID-19 is worse than pandemic influenza, we might need 70-80% to give herd immunity. That means that most people, who are healthy enough to get COVID-19 and recover quite happily, need to protect the 20% (the old and those with underlying health issues). To minimise loss of life, we the young/healthy need to take it on the chin, feel rubbish for a week and then move on. We need to do this whilst limiting exposure of those who can't take it so easily. That's why Govts are espousing the self-isolation technique - stay at home, feel rubbish, recover, move on. Don't go to hospitals and other places where old/ill people are gathered together. Don't go visit granny to check if she's OK. Let the medical care system do that. The old and the ill will thank you for it.

Running around shouting "we're all doomed!" isn't going to help one little bit.

Nobody is 'running around' or shouting about being doomed - with the benefit of my experience, I believe that this is significantly more serious than seasonal flu, and significantly more serious than other recent pandemics. Refusing to accept the gravity of the situation will not help anyone either. There is going to be a 'new normal' we have to get used to.

[Lotus102]

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

Your maths is wrong here. You are looking at the death rate and forgetting the infection rate. You need to multiply the two together to get the overall death rate of the population.

The infection rate is expected to be at least 80%. But you're right, I was acting on the basis that just about everyone will get it (I know people in the healthcare sector who think that will be the case).

So feel free to reduce my estimates by 20%.

[izzy]

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

does anybody want to own up to using "Greta" as an insult? (in giving a negative to this post)

[Pyrone89]

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

does anybody want to own up to using "Greta" as an insult? (in giving a negative to this post)

How dare you! (ps: wasnt me, cant downvote)

[izzy]

Millions will die. My guess is that by the time it calms down, everyone will know someone who didn’t make it. Basically, if there are 100 people in your circle, on average you’ll lose three. If you’re lucky you might only lose one.

does anybody want to own up to using "Greta" as an insult? (in giving a negative to this post)

How dare you! (ps: wasnt me, cant downvote)

oh I'm sure you're way too enlightened anyway!

after all Greta has hardly said anything about covid-19, only told her followers to gather digitally not in the flesh, which is 100% onside with most sentiments i think, including F1 and most of the teams, so it just looks a bit ~ist and denier generally

[mmred]

Should nt be there Just One post about F1 and covid?

By the way my prayers are with herd immunity guys, and with Italy where i live and numbers in a region are already off the charts of any possible therapy. And we re at 4 weeks from the start and healthcare Is also usually ok here