2024 pecking order predictions

[mwillems]

I think George has a good season in him, whether he has it next year is a different question, he certainly has questions to answer after last year so I'd agree to an extent there, but he is still a contender in the right car IMO.

Carlos I will respectfully disagree as I think he has continued to get better each season and I don't think there is much between the drivers on points as you mention. I won't argue who would win it, just that Carlos is a contender.

Oscar I think is very strong, but until he can manage those tyres he won't unlock all of his potential. His one lap pace almost being on a Par with Lando now, who is traditionally a very good qualifier.

But in any case, next year it is almost impossible to predict how the cars will perform and it has the potential to be either another walk in the park for max, or one of the most exciting seasons for quite a while.

[CMC]

If my previous post came across overly critical of Carlos, I didn't really mean it to. I do think he's very talented and perhaps only outside the current top 5 because of the exceptionally talented grid we have currently. Him being teamed with Charles, it could be difficult for either to win the WDC unless the Ferrari becomes the dominant car, because they will be close throughout the season, potentially taking points off one another, while some other teams don't have that dynamic. (I feel Lewis and George are in a similar situation.) I simply think a lot of stars would have to align for Carlos to win the title, but that's not to say he couldn't.

Hopefully it will be a much more competitive season. I agree with your earlier post that RB are likely to start out with the advantage we've grown accustomed to seeing, but whether they can hold it all season long could be another matter. Either way, it's anyone's guess what order the next 4 teams will follow, but the potential is there for it to be incredibly tight between them. 2023 saw rather big swings in performance from Aston, McLaren, and even Ferrari, while Merc managed second by remaining there or thereabouts all through the year. It would be exciting to see all 4 of those teams fighting for the same positions more regularly.

[stephen]

Lando Norris looked really good in the second half of 2023 season so I am expecting him to finish 2024 in the top 3. Max will definitely going to finish at number spot followed by Sergio Perez. For me, Hamilton is going to finish at 4 followed by Leclerc at 5.

[jambuka]

Prediction is Max may still win WDC, RB will probably lose WCC.

[chrisc90]

Prediction is Max may still win WDC, RB will probably lose WCC.

I think this will be true. Max will get the WDC, but I think it will be very close with the WCC. Certainly no 'Max taking both titles by himself' situation next year.

Tough one really as its going to need one team to be there with both cars for the best of the rest so I imagine the WCC will be VERY close with Merc, Ferrari, RB and Mclaren (no particular order) all getting good team results behind Max which will make it close WCC wise

[AR3-GP]

If Ver is anywhere near as dominant as last year or even only 50% as dominant, then RB will still take the WCC quite easily in the end. There won't be a steady 2nd place team, just like '23. Ferrari/Mclaren/Mercedes/Aston are just too close to one another for one driver or team to occupy 2nd place week in and out.

[chrisc90]

If Ver is anywhere near as dominant as last year or even only 50% as dominant, then RB will still take the WCC quite easily in the end. There won't be a steady 2nd place team, just like '23. Ferrari/Mclaren/Mercedes/Aston are just too close to one another for one driver or team to occupy 2nd place week in and out.

True. I still think it will be a LOT closer than this/last year (2023).

Perez will need to up his game, or RB will have no hesitation in swapping Danny Ric over with him if Danny is doing well enough.

[Nebhotep]

Keeping in mind the 2024 regulations are similar to 2023 we can expect similar performances in 2024 as the season ended in 2023.
The only exception will be Mercedes, who according to their statements, have to change the entire car. So they are expected to struggle at the beggining of the season.
Yes Ferrari said they will change their car 75% for 2024 but I personally feel they have a better understanding of the path they have to take to unlock more potential(compared to Mercedes).
Since Redbull will come with an evolution of 2024 and they remain the refference. I will expect them to challenge for wins from the first race.
McLaren can be the best challenger to Redbull in the first races if they truly bring the next step in upgrades that they missed in 2023 and also perform more consistenly throughout the season.
Aston Martin in 2023 in my opinion have missed a shot of winning 2 races and that tells a lot about its ability to win in the future. Their car will be I think on the same lavel as 2023, sometimes the 2nd best, others fighting for the last points. So still not championship-winning material yet.
I am excited about the step Williams will make. Hopefully we will see Williams at some races in the mix for podiums. Wouldn´t that be nice...

[Sphere3758]

While this is extremely hard to predict, I would hope it is either Ferrari or Mercedes (if not both) who get close to Redbull. When Lewis/Max/Charles battle each other on track, the anticipation and excitement is on a different level and they bring the best out of each other which makes for phenomenal viewing.

Perhaps Norris could too, but we do not have much data to back that as of now. I believe Fernando would be a bit too slow in qualifying to have constant battles with Max.

[Bill]

redbull major development for 2023 was weight reduction for 2024 they will have another major development but more innovative.for others to get ahead they have to copy redbull.noone is going to beat redbull with their own design.honda will also have a major reliability update too they dont play games either.2024 will be another rbr domination another whitewash,merc will throw the towel and focus on 2026.

[JPower]

I really don't see anyone beating Verstappen again but given the gradual compression of the grid, I see Checo's qualifying issues becoming an even larger liability this year.

All of the drivers at RB,Merc, Ferrari are within a very small window in qualifying and you can probably add McLaren and Aston(Alonso) to that if they continue their improvement.

So outside of the WDC, hard to say what the pecking order looks like. But...the safe bet is on Mercedes and Ferrari to be
in the top 3 with RB. Nothing much has changed there since 2014.

[organic]

So outside of the WDC, hard to say what the pecking order looks like. But...the safe bet is on Mercedes and Ferrari to be
in the top 3 with RB. Nothing much has changed there since 2014.

I personally don't think there will be a clear "top 3" teams like before 2021 ... Since the budget cap came in 3 seasons ago, the clear top 3 hasn't really existed apart from the second half of 2022. In 2022 first half Merc was much closer to the midfield than RB/Ferrari, Ferrari were midfield in 2021, and 2023 had for the majority of the season about 4 teams with a decent but comparable margin away from RB. The budget cap and aerodynamic testing restrictions are significant changes to the formula that serve to undermine the established order

Just from the sounds McLaren have made about their development trajectory, it would be hard to believe they won't be at least at Ferrari/Merc's level next year.

[Venturiation]

Prediction is Max may still win WDC, RB will probably lose WCC.

if he doesn't have the fastest car he won't win the WDC

[McMika98]

Crystal ball says:
First quarter races, Max tangles with every top team, Charles, Norris and Piastri top 3.

mid season, Max does his thing and gets his act but he has a big target: Charles, Hamilton and Norris top 3

Finale: Max dominates whilst Charles and Hamilton battle: 3 way title fight at the last race.

[chrisc90]

Prediction is Max may still win WDC, RB will probably lose WCC.

if he doesn't have the fastest car he won't win the WDC

Managed just fine in 2021 (statistically) and the first half of 2022 against Ferrari.

Guess could say the same about most other drivers on the grid tbh. If they dont have the fastest car they wont win. Charles, Lewis, George, Norris etc etc