2017 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, 24 - 26 March

[JonoNic]

I believe so, yes. It's nothing new, it's the same as previous years... It was the same with Red Bull in 2010-2013. And I think Ferrari have been developing race-friendly-aero-concept cars for years...

Thanks for your feedback

[henra]

And that is strange because during Quali watching the 2 onboards Ham seemed to look like he was super quick whilst just out for a Sunday drive with no dramas.
Where that car/driver Combo went I have no idea.

Over a single lap lacking DF on the Front axis (if this were the case) can be compensated by agressive setting of suspension geometry. Over a race distance this will overload the front tyres.
This could be a potential reason for the different performance we saw between Quali and race. This would also somewhat fit to the observations of car behaviour during the tests. My impression is the Merc has a somewhat rear bias of DF compared to the Ferrari.

[giantfan10]

It doesnt compute that Ferrari had the faster car. IMO Hamilton didnt have the confidence in the car. He was on edge, complaining a lot to the team about tire state and grip, despite being on rather good pace (evident by the gap they pulled out to Bottas and Kimi). This leads me to believe Hamilton/Mercedes were rather concerned about Vettel sitting closely behind, closing the gap at will.

At the end of it, they were probably rather equal on pace, slight edge going to Seb/Ferrari. It could have also been a bit of a bluff. All cars would have needed to drive to delta and save fuel due to 10% more throttle etc. Sure, you need the pace first to get you there, which Vettel clearly had, but i dont believe he had much more in hand. Then they did something awesome: he started to push, close the gap giving the impression they were about to pit. A masterstroke.

Hamilton/Mercedes pitted, either to cover him off or get the undercut. Eitherway, they pitted themselve 3s behind VES and Seb stayed out long enough to jump both. The rest is history and not representative anymore ti draw any conclusions. Hamiltons stint was compromised and Vettel had a comfortable margin and easy win.

The lasting impression i got from all this, is that Hamilton lacked that confidence in the car he usually has.

Still awesome start into the season. I am much looking forward to a closer battle for the WDC among drivers of different teams, rather than a race between team mates. If Seb and Ham remain the front runners of their team, we will see a battle in which the teams rally behind their driver and battle for the win. Its been too long since we have had this.

And that is strange because during Quali watching the 2 onboards Ham seemed to look like he was super quick whilst just out for a Sunday drive with no dramas.
Where that car/driver Combo went I have no idea.

Fuel was added to the equation, the understeering Ferrari settled down and the driver out for a sunday drive suddenly found himself with a car that chewed up its tires.
thats the only thing that changed from qualy,well track temperature also

[absbeginner]

It seems to me that grip in these cars is front limited, while exiting slow corners front tires tend to be pushed by rear ones causing some understeer.

Mercedes looked neutral in qualifying while Vettel showed some oversteer in corner exit, Ferrari was probably "helping" the car in cornering giving up something with the rear end, maybe some downforce.

That would explain Hamilton tire wear in first stint and why Vettel was able to extract more laps from his ones.

[f1316]

This quote from Hamilton intrigues me:

I didn't know how quick they would be in the race but their pace from testing was true and their first stint on the ultrasofts was fantastic. My real strength wasn't until right at the end by which time it was far too late

Perhaps this 'strength' is the Mercedes' car behaviour on low vs. high fuel and/or how Hamilton had set the car up (favouring track position from quail over tyre management)?

[dans79]

I've gone through and manually pulled some data out of the app for the drivers I think are relevant to the Mercedes blunder.





Things to note:

• Vettel showed no burst of speed after Hamilton pitted indicating that he had pace in reserve. Vettel's best lap before he pitted was only 0.103 faster than his best lap before Hamilton pitted.
• Hamilton's out lap and first flier where faster than Vettels even though Vettel had 5 fewer laps of fuel.
• ON Hamilton first flier (19) He was 0.567 faster Than Vettel who was also on his fastest lap.
• Hamilton spent 6 and a half laps behind Max loosing a sunstantial amont of time to Vettel, Specially laps 24, 25, & 26 where it looks like Max had completely used up his tires. After Max pitted Hamilton dropped his lap times by 2 seconds.

The american commentators quoted the pit stop delta as 23 seconds, but based on last years pit stops even 22 might have been doable. As the graph above shows Hamilton and by extension Vettel where pull away from Kimi and Max at a decent rate. It also shows that if Hamilton had pitted at the end of lap 19 or 20 he would have cleared Max. Kimi put on some speed after Lewis pitted, but I have a feeling had Hamilton stayed out, he wouldn't have. Thus Hamilton would have cleared him by lap 23 or 24, thought i suspect Kimi would have pitted before then.


I can't say Hamilton would have won had he stayed out, but I'm pretty confident that if he had, his chances would have been a lot better. Based on Hamilton & Vettel's in, out, and first flying laps, I don't see Vettel Jumping Hamilton in the pits. Thus Vettel would have been forced to attempt a pass on track. Based on what I saw further down the grid, even a tire compound advantage didn't guarantee you would get buy.


In short it's my opinion Ferrari bluffed and Merc blinked and blew the race.

[Phil]

I second that dans79, thanks for the data. I think Hamiltons race was compounded by his being uncomfortable with the feel of the car, which led to mistakes made under pressure (pitting too early).

[Juzh]

I've gone through and manually pulled some data out of the app for the drivers I think are relevant to the Mercedes blunder.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/oMASs ... w1294-h970

Things to note:

• Vettel showed no burst of speed after Hamilton pitted indicating that he had pace in reserve. Vettel's best lap before he pitted was only 0.103 faster than his best lap before Hamilton pitted.
• Hamilton's out lap and first flier where faster than Vettels even though Vettel had 5 fewer laps of fuel.
• ON Hamilton first flier (19) He was 0.567 faster Than Vettel who was also on his fastest lap.
• Hamilton spent 6 and a half laps behind Max loosing a sunstantial amont of time to Vettel, Specially laps 24, 25, & 26 where it looks like Max had completely used up his tires. After Max pitted Hamilton dropped his lap times by 2 seconds.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/gZEFF ... 94-h970-rw

The american commentators quoted the pit stop delta as 23 seconds, but based on last years pit stops even 22 might have been doable. As the graph above shows Hamilton and by extension Vettel where pull away from Kimi and Max at a decent rate. It also shows that if Hamilton had pitted at the end of lap 19 or 20 he would have cleared Max. Kimi put on some speed after Lewis pitted, but I have a feeling had Hamilton stayed out, he wouldn't have. Thus Hamilton would have cleared him by lap 23 or 24, thought i suspect Kimi would have pitted before then.


I can't say Hamilton would have won had he stayed out, but I'm pretty confident that if he had, his chances would have been a lot better. Based on Hamilton & Vettel's in, out, and first flying laps, I don't see Vettel Jumping Hamilton in the pits. Thus Vettel would have been forced to attempt a pass on track. Based on what I saw further down the grid, even a tire compound advantage didn't guarantee you would get buy.


In short it's my opinion Ferrari bluffed and Merc blinked and blew the race.

Images do not work. Access forbidden.
Wasn't Vettel in traffic after hamilton pitted? I know he had to lap at least 1 car 100%. Maybe it was more.

[Shrieker]

Yeah the Sauber. Right after the lap Hamilton had pitted. But I do not remember any more traffic for him tbh.

[dans79]

Images do not work. Access forbidden.

It should work now, it was google being a pain in my butt.

[superdowg316]

I think today showed what the ideal race in this formula is near to, apart from the track not being an overtaking galore. There were two cars from opposing teams fighting for victory with consistent pace that came down to who had the better strategy and who could make the most out of what they had. The tyre rules from last year are really going to take effect this year regarding who is going to be on the right strategy at the right time. Last year, Ferrari were caught out during the red flag. This year, Mercedes were caught out by how much longer Ferrari, Red Bull and others could go for, and the fact that Vettel was on it in race trim sealed it.

The Ferrari looks like it will be better on race pace while Mercedes looks better on qualy pace. It's too early to judge, but China will be critical in understanding a true pecking order from the Mercs and Ferrari.

[Vanja #66]

dans79, thanks for that analysis, I did a similar one for another forum (different reasons though) and I didn't have the data for first lap differences (I assumed 0.7s from one car to another), though I see that it was bigger from Ham to Rai and Ver. This is my graph:



I believe Hamilton felt the pressure and thought that his tyres were gone before they actually were. Look at the lap time drop Max had before he pitted. Also, I think both Kimi and Vettel could have gone for a few more laps, Vettel would have had even bigger advantage by then. The only thing I don't understand is why those two haven't chosen super softs instead of softs, like Max.

[Pierce89]

Which engine has the most ellipses?

Ringo didn't respond, maybe he's moved past his ellipses, or just maybe, Red Bull dropped their ellipse technology after they discovered that 1 person in the whole world found them out.

No, not really i am just avoiding wasting time with you . Funny how something from so many years ago is so intriguing to you haha. Maybe you should do some background reading on aircraft aerodynamics and aerodynamic efficiency?

For those who may not know, that was simply a surface detail used by the designers of the redbull cars over the years; which i noticed and supported with an actual CFD study of different side pod designs.

I've reserved myself to making simple posts these days after scrolling through miles of chatter. The actual interest in the science behind the F1 cars is less prevalent; and has been anchored in journalistic watered down jargon.
I've accepted this and silly responses like the ones above.

Bothered by a simple joke? Chill bud

[Schuttelberg]

What a race!

Frankly, I went into this season with sheer hopelessness because sport has been very brutal to me in the past 3-4 years. I won't get my hopes up, but at least there's a bit to cheer about in 2017 with Federer's slam and now this.

I'm delighted to see that Ferrari have got off the mark, as has Vettel. I've seen Formula 1 & sport for almost 25 years now and with this experience, I know how crucial it is to draw first blood. In a team like Ferrari and with a driver like Vettel, it also helps to get off the mark as there is a release of pressure. After the race, I expected Vettel to be more expressive, but compared to his usual self he seemed to keep things within which tells me he's in a space where he's very very focussed. If Seb can smell the coffee, he's twice the driver he is otherwise. Marc Gene informed last night that Seb was at the track till 2:30 am, well beyond any other driver. I see a man who has a car he likes, regulations that suit him and a mindset where he absolutely thrives.

I'm also a bit surprised because frankly, Mercedes and Hamilton scored own goals today. It's amazing what a little bit of pressure can do to you. If Ferrari can keep this up, Mercedes will earn those titles a lot more than they have in the past. But, they should have both won the race today. I saw Hamilton make an error behind Hamilton as well in his chase, so it's not just Mercedes that cocked up. It's a bit laughable when people suggest Ferrari are much faster in race trim. It's just been one race and from data it's evident that they were pretty much neck and neck. Mercedes in my opinion, just aren't used to this sort of pressure, real pressure!

Also, these complains on overtaking? I personally loved the race! F1 has never been about passing. We saw one from Ocon, and that was quite outstanding. Because passes are few that's when they happen, you are left in awe. Yes, following can be made easier and RB is at it to make things better. We've just changed the regs and we just need to let all this settle before making any knee jerk reactions.

Very disappointed with RBR! I don't know but it seemed to me that they're very chill about this season and not as intense. Also, what a drive by Alonso! But then, his interview after was quite pathetic. He did the same at Ferrari and it looks to me like he's had enough at McLaren!

[Schuttelberg]

What a race!

Frankly, I went into this season with sheer hopelessness because sport has been very brutal to me in the past 3-4 years. I won't get my hopes up, but at least there's a bit to cheer about in 2017 with Federer's slam and now this.

I'm delighted to see that Ferrari have got off the mark, as has Vettel. I've seen Formula 1 & sport for almost 25 years now and with this experience, I know how crucial it is to draw first blood. In a team like Ferrari and with a driver like Vettel, it also helps to get off the mark as there is a release of pressure. After the race, I expected Vettel to be more expressive, but compared to his usual self he seemed to keep things within which tells me he's in a space where he's very very focussed. If Seb can smell the coffee, he's twice the driver he is otherwise. Marc Gene informed last night that Seb was at the track till 2:30 am, well beyond any other driver. I see a man who has a car he likes, regulations that suit him and a mindset where he absolutely thrives.

I'm also a bit surprised because frankly, Mercedes and Hamilton scored own goals today. It's amazing what a little bit of pressure can do to you. If Ferrari can keep this up, Mercedes will earn those titles a lot more than they have in the past. But, they should have both won the race today. I saw Hamilton make an error behind Verstappen as well in his chase, so it's not just Mercedes that cocked up. It's a bit laughable when people suggest Ferrari are much faster in race trim. It's just been one race and from data it's evident that they were pretty much neck and neck. Mercedes in my opinion, just aren't used to this sort of pressure, real pressure!

Also, these complains on overtaking? I personally loved the race! F1 has never been about passing. We saw one from Ocon, and that was quite outstanding. Because passes are few that's why when they happen, you are left in awe. Yes, following can be made easier and RB is at it to make things better. We've just changed the regs and we just need to let all this settle before making any knee jerk reactions.

Very disappointed with RBR! I don't know but it seemed to me that they're very chill about this season and not as intense. Also, what a drive by Alonso! But then, his interview after was quite pathetic. He did the same at Ferrari and it looks to me like he's had enough at McLaren!