FittingMechanics wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024, 22:38
Emag wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024, 22:35
CjC wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024, 22:31
I think Max will win 75% of the remaining races. The championship is his and Red Bulls to loose in my opinion
I think people will be in for a rude awakening in Barcelona, but I would love it if I was wrong.
RedBull also has upgrades coming there, so anything but a dominant RedBull win would be a surprise.
That's why I said earlier, I am more concerned with how the gaps to Ferrari and Mercedes will be.
Realistically, McLaren wont get another race win until the next round of upgrades comes, the magnitude of which will be crucial on how the rest of the season pans out with gaps being so close.
I really don't get the pessimism. Lando ran away today and was unlucky to get caught by SC but unable to pit. Monaco would have been a win if the lap was just slightly better in qualy. Imola was probably 1-2 laps away from a win.
There is no pessimism, but I never cherry pick the best moments to make any team look good. You mention Imola, where RedBull couldn't get a proper setup until FP3, and even then, went into the race compromised. The first stint at Imola, and a very big part of the second stint, Lando had nothing on Max. If he had been faster all the way through, the race would have had enough laps for him to overtake.
You mention Monaco, where qualifying makes all the difference, but Leclerc was dominating pretty much every session except Q1 and Q2. It is true the ideal lap for Oscar was faster by a bit, but Leclerc literally got out there in Q3 and set his best laps one after the other. A good/better car allows you to extract the laptime consistently.
And again here, the first stint was just a master class by Lando, he was smoking everyone in that first stint. Credit where credit is due, Oscar was also flying in the end, but he could not make progress the same way Lando did. He literally smoked everyone out of great tire management and a car which liked the conditions at the time.
Discount that first stint, McLaren was not the fastest car on track for the vast majority of the race, and by the end, they were clearly 3rd quickest.
And why do I think Max will win in Barcelona? Because he won here on a track which again wasn't amazing for that car with Perez being nowhere on both qualifying and the race. Barcelona has no area that "screams" weakness for the RedBull as a car and they're also bringing upgrades there.
McLaren has similar strength & weaknesses to the RedBull, but when the strengths align, RedBull pulls ahead.
We will see what happens in Barcelona, but I think people have been building this false sense of optimism just because RedBull has been on a bit of a "rut" (overstatement) with a streak of unfavorable tracks and difficulties in setting the car up.
Just remember how this season started. They were untouchable, and their car doesn't look any different from how it started the season. They got at least one big upgrade package coming because Newey himself confirmed it early on that their car will look quite a bit different at some point.
They are absolutely the favorites and the team to beat. For them to have won 2 of the last 3 races while being on somewhat of a slump, is actually a huge warning call to the rivals.
McLaren, and the chasing pack need to work harder, because if they couldn't beat the RedBull + Max combot at their worst, they stand no chance against it when they're at their best.