2013 Testing - Barcelona 2: 28 Feb - 3 Mar

[turbof1]

So what happens if they now happen to have ticked all the boxes.

Preparation for Melbourne and rushing out some more updates.

[Ferraripilot]

It wonders me how hard it is for some people to admit Merc has improved their car.

Listen. I have friends that work in the Merc aero dept. I want to see them do well.


But at the same time, I'm not going to stick my head in the sand and blissfully ignore reality.

- They were over a second off the pace last year, they will not make that up over one winter.
- They have a history of over heating the tyres.
- The temperatures at Barce were very low, other teams had problems with graining due to insufficiently high tyre temperatures.
- The drivers/team are greatly downplaying their chances (relative to the times they are putting in).


Of course they have improved their car - the guys working on it are unbelievably smart and dedicated. Improved to the degree that they are contending for pole? Nope, not a chance (unless by freak of weather it is cold in Aus).

Subjectively speaking, Alonso himself stated none of the top teams have found .7-.8 over the winter. Mind you Mercedes is not grouped in that bunch as a top team, he specifically mentioned Mclaren and Red Bull and I have my reservations about Mclaren whom I actually believe have stagnated. We also have Sauber engineer William Toet who has no problem coming out saying Mercedes are indeed 2 seconds quicker, and the positive tire degredation and control, lap times, and overall consistency tend to objectively lend support to such a position. W04 has control during 30C track conditions (this last Saturday) and very cold track conditions, the lap times have not fibbed their overall situation with tires whereas with W03 we saw it coming a mile away and simply hoped they fix it.

If Mercedes were setting 1:22s, high 1:21s here and there with unspecific and inconsistent tire degredation then I would stand directly by your position. But no, the problem is Mercedes are setting times a second and a half quicker than last year's pole time (not to mention well over 2 seconds quicker than their own Q3 times) and showing excellent tire degredation and a very stable rear end per all those present at Barcelona. That unfortunately tells a completely different story to W02 which was hailed during preseason as quick but hard on tires and with loose rear traction on exit, and W03 which we all knew had tire deg issues during the preseason yet was heralded for 1 lap pace, which it certainly had during the first part of the season. And also you must remember that W02 was around for a 'silver bullet' year with the EBDs, and the big difference between now and then is that now there is no 'silver bullet'. The perspective for W04s favor is completely different now due to that.

If anything, W04 is carrying the one and only silver bullet on the circuit with its superior mechanical traction provided by its clever suspension system. Watch how W04 hammers the throttle out of turn 1 and 2 at Barcelona, no one can do that. Time will tell if they really have it figured out of course. As I stated before, that suspension system is and always has been the future of F1, it just needed to be appropriately controlled and once that's done it will be a paramount system for all teams going forward.

[kilcoo316]

So what happens if they now happen to have ticked all the boxes.

What, make up 1+ seconds on 2 teams and ~0.5 seconds on an additional team in 6 months? [That is in qualifying trim - in race trim you might as well double those numbers.]

Not possible. Not under consistent regulations. There is so little scope for improvement under unchanged regs that design essentially resorts to a brute force approach. A very good idea might result in a step change on the development slope, but it would be adding up to a tenth here or a tenth there, nothing more.


One of the other teams might screw up (like McLaren **may** have done - although I'd reserve that judgement until running on warmer tracks) - but not all 3 - so Merc are essentially restricted by where there baseline is - they are coming from so far back it is simply impossible to make up the difference in just 6 months*.


*Caveat - unless the car had a massive and fundamental problem - by that I mean something akin to the BAR chassis tub flexing at the suspension pickups - which the W03 did not appear to have.

[Nando]

So what happens if they now happen to have ticked all the boxes.

What, make up 1+ seconds on 2 teams and ~0.5 seconds on an additional team in 6 months? [That is in qualifying trim - in race trim you might as well double those numbers.]

Not possible. Not under consistent regulations. There is so little scope for improvement under unchanged regs that design essentially resorts to a brute force approach. A very good idea might result in a step change on the development slope, but it would be adding up to a tenth here or a tenth there, nothing more.


One of the other teams might screw up (like McLaren **may** have done - although I'd reserve that judgement until running on warmer tracks) - but not all 3 - so Merc are essentially restricted by where there baseline is - they are coming from so far back it is simply impossible to make up the difference in just 6 months*.


*Caveat - unless the car had a massive and fundamental problem - by that I mean something akin to the BAR chassis tub flexing at the suspension pickups - which the W03 did not appear to have.

If you get something fundamentally wrong, like let´s say Ferrari in 2012.
They managed to get quite a lot of time back with the same car.

With Mercedes they start fresh so i don´t really get the seconds gained or lost thing.
Teams become competitive and the opposite of that. We have seen that plenty of times under these stable regulations.

I´m just saying that if you are so certain of your claims like "not possible" and it turns out it was possible, remember you have just bet you and your friends validity on the line here.

Frankly if i had friends in a team i would be even more careful of making statements like
"not possible"
"car has had tire wear issues for 2 years, thus they won´t solve it for this year"
"they can´t find x amount of seconds, regs are too stable"

Because you are putting more on the table then a random guy just saying random crap here.

Do you see my point?

For example, let´s assume the Merc is a second rower in AUS. What does that say about you and your friends validity?
It seems to me it´s non-existent and merely a status thing.

I believe you and that you are good friends with them i´m just saying it can hit back quite hard if it turns out they actually have built a quick car here.

[Neno]

So one question, why Caterham, HRT, Marrusia, Torro Roso under such stable regulation didnt close a bit the gap? Specialy when is so MUCH room to improve. This convo is pointless

[bonjon1979]

So one question, why Caterham, HRT, Marrusia, Torro Roso under such stable regulation didnt close a bit the gap? Specialy when is so MUCH room to improve. This convo is pointless

And yet you felt the need to join in anyway...

[Nando]

This convo is pointless

I disagree, i think i have put forth an interesting aspect to when someone making claims and have something to back it up with like knowing the guys at the Aero department at Mercedes.

I´m not disagreeing with what he says, nor do i fully believe just because regulations are stable people are stuck in their position (infact i think it´s the opposite)

Just saying that there´s a difference in saying:

Car will be quick/slow looking at the times,
or
Car will be slow because it´s impossible to get back that disadvantage because i know the guys in the aero-department.

If person 1 is wrong, ok that´s like any other guy on here making claims, assumptions etc.
If person 2 is wrong it´s quite a bit more then that.

Edit:

Not saying he´s wrong or right, just pointing out there´s more on the table then simply being proven wrong here.

[kilcoo316]

If you get something fundamentally wrong, like let´s say Ferrari in 2012.
They managed to get quite a lot of time back with the same car.

In Aus, Fernando Alonso was 1.5 sec off the best Q3 time (0.868 sec off the best time in the session he bowed out in).

In Abu Dhabi, FA was 0.952 sec off the best Q3 time.
In the US, FA was 1.643 sec off the best Q3 time.
In Brazil, FA was 0.795 sec off the best Q3 time (but remember Brazil is a somewhat unusual track where the times bunch up).

Ferrari did not close in a second... more like half a second in a season lasting from March till November - 9 months.

Mercedes have had about 6 months to close in 1-1.5 seconds. [Probably more when you consider the constantly moving target.]

Teams become competitive and the opposite of that. We have seen that plenty of times under these stable regulations.

We have?

I´m just saying that if you are so certain of your claims like "not possible" and it turns out it was possible, remember you have just bet you and your friends validity on the line here.

Sorry, not understanding you.

I wouldn't ask about work - just as I wouldn't be asked about my work. Company confidentiality... and state confidentiality and all that.



I only mention the friendship 'cos some are stating I am, for some reason, annoyed at Merc possibly being the pace, or right on it. I am not. My thoughts are based on logic and not emotion.

[kilcoo316]

nor do i fully believe just because regulations are stable people are stuck in their position (infact i think it´s the opposite)

Not saying that at all!

I'm saying the progression will be clear over a significant time period.


You may gain one second relative to the rest of the field over, maybe*, 12 months. But it will be reasonably consistent and won't be an overnight jump.


*that is probably unrealistic. 24 months is more realistic.

[Nando]

In Aus, Fernando Alonso was 1.5 sec off the best Q3 time (0.868 sec off the best time in the session he bowed out in).

In Abu Dhabi, FA was 0.952 sec off the best Q3 time.
In the US, FA was 1.643 sec off the best Q3 time.
In Brazil, FA was 0.795 sec off the best Q3 time (but remember Brazil is a somewhat unusual track where the times bunch up).

Ferrari did not close in a second... more like half a second in a season lasting from March till November - 9 months.

Mercedes have had about 6 months to close in 1-1.5 seconds. [Probably more when you consider the constantly moving target.]

And Alonso winning in Germany? With both Vettel and Button on his tail?

We have?

Mclaren springs to mind.. 09, dog. 10, so so, 11, little bit better, 12, Red Bull killer with the only problem being reliability.
Think that´s a clear example of the fact that you can make progress and make the quickest car in stable regulations.
It can swing both ways, even Red Bull started of a season very badly.

Sorry, not understanding you.
I wouldn't ask about work - just as I wouldn't be asked about my work. Company confidentiality... and state confidentiality and all that.
I only mention the friendship 'cos some are stating I am, for some reason, annoyed at Merc possibly being the pace, or right on it. I am not. My thoughts are based on logic and not emotion.

It´s based on estimated guesses based on previous years and some practice sessions this year, like most other people are, unless you claim you have some form of inside information.

Did you estimate Mclaren would lead the pack by 7 tenths in AUS last year? I think not.

[Nando]

Not saying that at all!
I'm saying the progression will be clear over a significant time period.
You may gain one second relative to the rest of the field over, maybe*, 12 months. But it will be reasonably consistent and won't be an overnight jump.
*that is probably unrealistic. 24 months is more realistic.

Assuming you keep designing the same car yes then i would agree.

[stefan_]

Combined driver tesing mileage (all 3 sessions)

Pos. Driver / Laps / Kilometres / Miles

1. Esteban Gutiérrez / 607 laps / 2768.380 km / 1720.192 mi
2. Nico Rosberg / 575 laps / 2639.850 km / 1640.327 mi
3. Lewis Hamilton / 563 laps / 2584.450 km / 1605.899 mi
4. Nico Hülkenberg / 554 laps / 2538.460 km / 1577.328 mi
5. Sergio Pérez / 554 laps / 2538.240 km / 1577.187 mi
6. Max Chilton / 550 laps / 2535.960 km / 1575.773 mi
7. Paul di Resta / 553 laps / 2519.740 km / 1565.690 mi
8. Jean-Éric Vergne / 536 laps / 2454.900 km / 1525.404 mi
9. Charles Pic / 516 laps / 2364.300 km / 1469.106 mi
10. Valtteri Bottas / 514 laps / 2352.260 km / 1461.629 mi
11. Fernando Alonso / 505 laps / 2350.780 km / 1460.703 mi
12. Sebastian Vettel / 513 laps / 2343.070 km / 1455.915 mi
13. Felipe Massa / 513 laps / 2336.490 km / 1451.825 mi
14. Romain Grosjean / 495 laps / 2270.400 km / 1410.762 mi
15. Mark Webber / 495 laps / 2264.730 km / 1407.236 mi
16. Pastor Maldonado / 483 laps / 2213.180 km / 1375.206 mi
17. Giedo van der Garde / 469 laps / 2148.690 km / 1335.134 mi
18. Jenson Button / 455 laps / 2090.790 km / 1299.153 mi
19. Daniel Ricciardo / 448 laps / 2050.710 km / 1274.251 mi
20. Kimi Räikkönen / 260 laps / 1182.380 km / 734.696 mi
21. Jules Bianchi / 253 laps / 1165.000 km / 723.899 mi
22. Adrian Sutil / 249 laps / 1159.100 km / 720.228 mi
23. Luiz Razia / 113 laps / 500.364 km / 310.911 mi
24. James Rossiter / 61 laps / 270.108 km / 167.837 mi
25. Pedro de la Rosa / 51 laps / 225.828 km / 140.323 mi
26. Davide Valsecchi / 16 laps / 74.480 km / 46.279 mi
via gpupdate.net

Unofficial test kilometres completed (Teams):
1. Sauber - 5,307
2. Mercedes - 5,224
3. Ferrari - 4,913
4. McLaren - 4,629
5. Red Bull - 4,608
6. Williams - 4,570
7. Caterham - 4,513
8. Toro Rosso - 4,506
9. Force India - 4,481
10. Marussia - 3,669
11. Lotus - 3,527

917 sets of Pirelli tyres were used in pre-season testing:
30 sets of the supersoft specification
190 sets of the soft specification
383 sets of the medium specification
221 sets of the hard specification
61 sets of the intermediate specification
32 sets of the wet specification

The longest runs on each compound at Barcelona were:
Supersoft - 16 laps
Soft - 31 laps
Medium - 36 laps
Hard - 24 laps
Intermediate - 47 laps
Wet - 48 laps
via formula1.com

[kilcoo316]

unless you claim you have some form of inside information.

If I had been told how the car was performing, I would not be posting at all on this thread.

[kilcoo316]

And Alonso winning in Germany? With both Vettel and Button on his tail?

Correct me if I am wrong... but weren't the weather conditions in Germany a bit colder than usual? Additionally, wasn't Alonso on the defensive and relying on superior low speed traction to prevent being overtaken?

In the next race - Alonso was the guts of a second off pole.

Mclaren springs to mind.. 09, dog. 10, so so, 11, little bit better, 12, Red Bull killer with the only problem being reliability.
Think that´s a clear example of the fact that you can make progress and make the quickest car in stable regulations.
It can swing both ways, even Red Bull started of a season very badly.

Lets look at McLaren then:
2009 - 2 wins
2010 - 5 wins
2011 - 6 wins
2012 - 7 wins

See what I mean about consistent progression?


Again - I'm not saying you cannot improve or get worse - I'm saying that drastic changes won't happen overnight (or in this case, over a few months).

[kooleracer]

Merc can make over 2 sec in a year. Because they already proved they did. Also Sauber engineer en Aldo Costa confirmed that they have made up 2 sec. Thats possible because:

1. This car is designed by Aldo Costa, not Loic Bigois.
2.This is the first car designed with the help off Costa,Bell, Willis (Elliot)
3. This car is designed after the team revamped the Aero department. (Bye bye Bigois, Bye Bye 50% model)
4. This has no heritage of the W01,02 or 03. It looks the same but Ross Brawn and other Merc people have said this is a completely new car under the hood. So the fundament of the car bare little or no resemblance with the W01,02 or W03.
5. This car has been in development since the Mugello test, so 18 months of development has gone in this car.
6. The rules haven't changed so other teams can't make the same leap as Merc did, the law of diminishing returns (Christian Horner). Plus McLaren decision to build a totally new car confirms this statement they couldn't improve last years car simply because of the stagnation of the rules.

So please stop saying its impossible, because they times show they have improved over 2 sec. Plus the team has confirmed that is over 2 seconds faster. But Aldo also confirmed Lewis Hamiltons claim, that they need to improve on Aero. But the question is, is improving 2 seconds enough. We will know that after the race on Sunday.