2016 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, March 18-20

[namao]

So I am going to humbly predict (just a bit of fun):

- If a Mercedes car wins, it will be Rosberg (god I hope I'm wrong, yes, I'm biased)
- Vettel won't win the Australian GP
- We will have a surprise victor, meaning either Kimi, a Williams or a Redbull, maybe even a Torro-Rosso?
- McLaren will be at best on race day 7th (perhaps as a result of qualifying madness), but I expect them more around 9th or lower. Realistically I think they'll be at the back of the midfield.

I think McLaren will have a very poor weekend, specially in qualifying (dry). On race they will be at best the 13th or 14th but if the rain comes or some cars have reliability problems, maybe 9th. Mercedes, Ferrari, Force India, Williams and Red Bull/Toro Rosso will occupy the first 10 positions so...Also Manor with de Mercedes PU could beat McLaren. All depends on Honda "surprise".

However I expect to see McLaren 8th or so (on a normal standard race day) by the end of the summer break. Hope so.

[TheScrutineer]

Nice little Australian GP guide...

http://dmanf1.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/au ... guide.html

[Manu_Forti]

I am just looking forward to the start of the season so we can get away from all the armchair experts and their predictions, as usual some will do better than expected and some worse but its good to get going again, and with a new broadcaster for us in the UK with Channel 4.

Looking forward to the end of a long winter !!

[gandharva]

Crap! 95% chance on rain for tomorrow. So no need to stay awake for FP1/2.

[bauc]

Crap! 95% chance on rain for tomorrow. So no need to stay awake for FP1/2.

I will get up & check, if it rains super hard I'm back to bed till P2

[Phil]

So I am going to humbly predict (just a bit of fun):
- We will have a surprise victor, meaning either Kimi, a Williams or a Redbull, maybe even a Torro-Rosso?

I'm not entirely sure. I have this strange feeling that STR will be on the same level like last season. The Renault PU was weaker than the Ferrari and Mercedes PU. Since they have the old 2015 Ferrari PU now, which no updates are expected for the season, I think the Renault powered cars might overtake STR in performance during the season. STR's main weapon is its chassis imo.

True. I am more betting on unpredictable qualifying and weather conditions to upset the 'logical performance order'. The new qualifying is designed to provoke the unpredictable and in combination with unpredictable weather, this will IMO benefit those that have nothing to lose and undertake risks or are simply 'lucky' to benefit in the right time at the right place.

A front-running team like Mercedes, even Ferrari, that is facing more pressure or has more to lose, will go for the safe option - always. Because the safe-option will under normal circumstances yield the highest success probability. Mixed with unpredictable circumstances like weather or the new qualifying, someone taking risks might strike lucky, hence why I think Melbourne, also thanks to being a street circuit, will deliver a surprise victor.

Even if we have a predictable winner like Rosberg or Hamilton on Sunday, I think these uncertainties will cause at least one if not more "upsets" by seeing other favorite(s) out of position because of qualifying or the weather, the tyres or a combination of all of that.

[jurinius]

A front-running team like Mercedes, even Ferrari, that is facing more pressure or has more to lose, will go for the safe option - always. Because the safe-option will under normal circumstances yield the highest success probability. Mixed with unpredictable circumstances like weather or the new qualifying, someone taking risks might strike lucky, hence why I think Melbourne, also thanks to being a street circuit, will deliver a surprise victor.

IMO, all the team even the top ones will take high risks to stay at their expected position. nobody has nothing to loose now, Manor has same points as Mercedes in the first year race. With unpredictable conditions, maybe luck ...

[Phil]

I think you are underestimating what "high risk" means.

High risk means taking a gamble. A gamble like for instance going for the a race-strategy that offers the highest probability of winning. That might a OOP strategy. Taking a gamble would mean *not* running on such a strategy, but one that is supposedly worse, but under the right circumstances might turn out to be better, because that circumstance might lead to less traffic, perhaps the perfect timing on a safety car situation etc. In these circumstances, a 'risky' strategy might lead to becoming the best strategy.

Hence why teams in midfield usually have both their drivers on different strategies because they are covering off both eventualities and sometime, that eventuality might put them at a decisive advantage.

A front running team like Mercedes who has and knows it has two equal drivers fighting for the WDC and wants to give both equal chances will not ask one to go on a strategy that under normal conditions would prove to be disadvantageous.

So no, not all teams take equal risks. The higher up you are on the performance order, the less risks you take.

How would this look like for the Australian GP qualifying? I could imagine limited running during a qualifying session for example; Because the more you run, the more used your tires are. And those tires will have to be used during the race too, hypothetically you will start the race on if it's Q2 we are talking about. Because tires are in limited quantities and you will not want to compromise your race by starting on too worn tires, the "gamble" the faster teams take will be to run short but quick and hope that their lap(s) are quick enough to get into Q3. On an evolving track, this might be tricky. A midfield team with less to lose who might realize its unrealistic to get into Q3 might go for more laps to better their position (relative to their midfield competition) and end up in an advantageous position if the track gets better and might push one of the favorites out in this new 90 second elimination system quicker than you might anticipate.

With this new system, once you're out, you're out. No time to react as before. So the top running teams will have to think hard about how long they run and how good their laps are and how much they want to compromise their tires for the race while doing so.

[jurinius]

I understand very well all your points.
I just want to say that even the top team are on the edge now because new qualif format is too risky for everyone, especially when performance are becoming close. Gamble is less complex than high risk in this context because there is a clear difference. When gambling more often, more risk = more gain. In the other side "High risk" are always calculated risk and only the calcul limit (not in size but also in time) is making difference in final result.

[godlameroso]

Currently raining close to 5hrs before morning practice, doesn't look like conditions will improve today but tomorrow there will definitely be less rain.

[atanatizante]

Many observers thought Merc`s being focused in testing just for reliability reason (both PU and chassis side), but the main reason was the fact that they were more interested by the new 2016 Pirelli tyre in race trim, coz it has a new construction ...
Now for this year Pirelli has changed slightly both compounds and tyre wall shape, hence allowing drivers to push more and - most important - to avoid the after lap in order to cool down the tyre and not rise degradation levels, so hopefully allowing them to leave nothing in their sleeve and giving everything they`ve got on the race track ...

For this weekend the race tyre is the soft one and knowing it`ll be a wet FP1 Merc was caught on the back foot and they`ll get busy in FP2 with their soft tyre assessment, bearing in mind they barely put them on in the last Barca test ...

As for the race the most probably strategy - at least for the top teams - is a two stop with a SS-S-S strategy.
My two cents

[GoranF1]

Currently raining close to 5hrs before morning practice, doesn't look like conditions will improve today but tomorrow there will definitely be less rain.

It starts 2:30 cet....so more than 5h.

[djos]

It's bucketing down here in Melbourne right now and really windy, gonna be a wild day!

Oh and it's still fairly warm, 17c atm!

https://www.dropbox.com/sc/jsku7s9q61gh ... 4zwqjYI0Va

[F1NAC]

watching via web cam somewhere in Melbourne.

[GoranF1]

Rain will stop in 57min.