beelsebob wrote:Agreed, there's certainly a question hanging over whether the tyres will degrade in higher temps. That said, I also don't believe all the hype about "if they're doing well at this temp, they won't be in the warm". Then every single team except for Ferrari would be in trouble. More surprisingly, Lotus would be in trouble, which would be especially odd, given that they are the ones who could deal with the hot only last year.
The way I see it is - on a cold day:
If teamA can get a lot of heat into the tyres quickly, they can get them into the window for prime operation on their 2nd lap out of the pits (1st hot lap). Thus, you get a great lap in. Then the tyre loses its "new" benefit and drops back to its normal (relatively stable) grip levels.
However, if teamB put less heat into the tyres, then they half heat it for their 2nd lap (1st hot lap) and get it running optimally (thermally) on their 3rd or 4th lap. By which time, they've taken the "newness" out of it and are using a tyre probably 0.5 second lower
in potential than teamA. Although its now giving them
their best laptimes as its thermally "on".
Over longer runs, the degradation curves may be somewhat similar between the teams. But, what may be a concern is that teamA are not running up against the upper limits of the tyre (optimal) thermal envelope as due to the colder ambient conditions, the tyre/wheel is able to dissipate the additional heat whilst remaining within the upper temp limits.
Lotus' times aren't great on the face of it. Neither are McLaren's. Both are renowned for being light on the tyres. Ferrari, well, their car has been observed as sliding around a little, meaning they could represent teamA in the scenario above. For historical reasons, I am concerned Mercedes could be the same.
RBR is the outlier. Apparently very quick in the wet/damp with Webber, but not showing much in the dry. Have they been trying to address their previous tendency to burn through tyres a bit quicker than their competitors? Have they went and got it a bit wrong?