kilcoo316 wrote:Mika1 wrote:It a big difference between Luc Bigois or Aldo Costa, Bell and Elliot designing the car.
Yep - but I don't think I can emphasis enough the pace you need to develop at just to stick with the top guys, never mind close in on them.
Sorry that I keep quoting you, as I actually agree with most of what you are saying. I just wanted to mention, that I think there is a small distinction to be made with performance gained from 2012 to 2013. One gain will be the quicker tyres, which will most likely benefit all teams. Then there is the gain that a team makes by making their car more efficient, finding better ways to extract performance by learning/understanding their last car - which IMO is the angle that we are discussing here in regards to Mercedes vs the top-teams.
I still think that given that the rules between 2012 and 2013 are largely the same - that the gain a team will make by making their car more efficient will be smaller than when you have big design and rule changes. If we had identical rules year upon year, the rate of performance increase would likely become smaller year by year, simply because as you reach full efficiency, gains become increasingly difficult. It's probably easier to get your car from say 80% efficient to 90%, than from 90% to 95%. By this logic, I think it's increasingly more difficult for top-teams to gain over their last year, than it would be for a team like Mercedes, whos car was a whole lot less efficient to beginn with, to close the gap.
Of course, even if they have closed the gap, they might still be a bit behind - but a difference in efficiency (in absolute terms) might be equalled out on race day by driver form, car being better set-up to track conditions, a bit of luck of how qualifying/race turns out, how the tyres perform (or how close car/driver can get the tyres into optimum conditions/temperature) etc. The question is how far have they closed their gap?
I really hope they have closed the gap enough for it to be marginal come race-weekend, though I too have my doubts. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if they were 0.3 seconds behind in qualifying and I'm a bit worried that the tyres will cause a bit of a lottery like last year again and be a bigger influence to the teams overall performance than the cars absolute speed. Melbourne can't come soon enough!