2012 Singaporean GP - Marina Bay

[megz]

Alonso is spectacularly fast when he needs to be and is a real thinker when racing. He is able to pace himself and keep out of trouble - hence his current lead in the championship.

These kinds of statements seem to grate more the further we get into this season.

Alonso has hardly done much that is special this season and can put his lead down to other cars in front of him simply stopping in place.

He never actually had high expectations for this season which led to the team being conservative. He just happened to be there in a pretty good car to sweep up points others were dropping on the floor.

It also comes down to the fact that the team behind him are easily the strongest of the front runners so far in terms of both strategy and reliability.

The F2012 is obviously not the overall "fastest car", but it actually works. One could even argue that the fastest car is the one that actually allows a driver to cross the finish line more often.

That's why Alonsos lead immediately looked in question the very minute McLaren seemed to sort out their reliability issues for a few grand prix.

Even in this race Alonso was gifted a podium due to other cars simply being incapable of finishing the race.

I'm not seeing where any of this is a credit to Alonso being able to think in the cockpit etc.

If you aren't there though you can't collect the points. Massa being a case in point. Identical car yet doesn't have the speed or the race-craft to put the car in the same places safely as Alonso. This is precisely how Alonso won the 2005 championship. You can't beat on the guy for outpacing his car, putting it in places it shouldn't be and winning 3 races already in what you point out is not the best car out there (3 front row starts - which led to victory - with a car that is, in your opinion, "obviously not the fastest" - seems to point out that Alonso isn't doing such a bad job and is gaining points through his own performance).

As for credit to Alonso as the thinking man's driver - most people agree he is not the fastest over one lap, quite a few will tell you he isn't even the fastest over an entire race distance, what he does though is manage to win races and not lose his head under pressure all while out performing the car and his team-mate who was once well regarded (IMO wrongly) in 2008.

All I'm saying is credit where credit is due.

[raymondu999]

I'd argue that if you were to look at the season as a whole, the F2012 has been the "best" car since Barcelona - at least until the MP4-27B came at Hockenheim and has blown the field away since.

It's never the outright quickest - except maybe Monza. But it's the most reliable, and the most consistent.

While the rest of the field have been going up and down, dipping in and out of competitiveness as the tyre choices and track layouts change, the Ferrari has always been competitive (except for Singapore/Hungary).

It is, for lack of a better word - the "Alonso" of the pitlane. It's always there. It's like a rally car that wins a rally by being a close 2nd at every stage.

[GrizzleBoy]

If you aren't there though you can't collect the points. Massa being a case in point. Identical car yet doesn't have the speed or the race-craft to put the car in the same places safely as Alonso. This is precisely how Alonso won the 2005 championship. You can't beat on the guy for outpacing his car, putting it in places it shouldn't be and winning 3 races already in what you point out is not the best car out there (3 front row starts - which led to victory - with a car that is, in your opinion, "obviously not the fastest" - seems to point out that Alonso isn't doing such a bad job and is gaining points through his own performance).

As for credit to Alonso as the thinking man's driver - most people agree he is not the fastest over one lap, quite a few will tell you he isn't even the fastest over an entire race distance, what he does though is manage to win races and not lose his head under pressure all while out performing the car and his team-mate who was once well regarded (IMO wrongly) in 2008.

All I'm saying is credit where credit is due.

I'm still unsure why the other top teams having unreliable cars and essentially killing their own chances is a credit to Alonso?

For instance, if Hamilton did not lose (in the ball park of) 12 points in China, another 12 in Bahrain, 22 in Barcelona, 25 in Singapore, all due to technical faults from the car/team, he'd be way out in the lead without even counting the Maldonado/Grosjean missles that were fired at him.

Same for Vettel, losing upwards of 30 points simply because his car wouldn't not complete a race on multiple occasions.

By your reasoning, had these events not occurred, Fernandos driving this season would automatically be less impressive, simply because another persons car/team (in an ideal world) proved to be reliable. However, because they did happen, it somehow credits his speed and ability to think in the cockpit. I don't get it.

Outside of his wins, I'll give him credit for being able to bring the most reliable front running car home, but not much more.

You also seemed to miss out the fact that while I said that the F2012 doesn't seem to be the "fastest", I argued that one could say the car that actually allows the driver to complete more grand prix is the fastest car.

[Arunas]

I'm still unsure why the other top teams having unreliable cars and essentially killing their own chances is a credit to Alonso?

For instance, if Hamilton did not lose (in the ball park of) 12 points in China, another 12 in Bahrain, 22 in Barcelona, 25 in Singapore, all due to technical faults from the car/team, he'd be way out in the lead without even counting the Maldonado/Grosjean missles that were fired at him.

Same for Vettel, losing upwards of 30 points simply because his car wouldn't not complete a race on multiple occasions.

By your reasoning, had these events not occurred, Fernandos driving this season would automatically be less impressive, simply because another persons car/team (in an ideal world) proved to be reliable. However, because they did happen, it somehow credits his speed and ability to think in the cockpit. I don't get it.

Outside of his wins, I'll give him credit for being able to bring the most reliable front running car home, but not much more.

You also seemed to miss out the fact that while I said that the F2012 doesn't seem to be the "fastest", I argued that one could say the car that actually allows the driver to complete more grand prix is the fastest car.

It seams Massa had same "most reliable front running car", and what results speak about that?

[raymondu999]

It seams Massa had same "most reliable front running car", and what results speak about that?

That since Hockenheim 2010 he hasn't been a top driver?

I don't think even the 2008/2009 Massa could have beat Alonso - but he would not have been dominated in this fashion IMO.

[zeph]

Alonso has hardly done much that is special this season and can put his lead down to other cars in front of him simply stopping in place.

It also comes down to the fact that the team behind him are easily the strongest of the front runners so far in terms of both strategy and reliability.

If any of the top teams had strategical blunders this year, it was Ferrari! But Alonso's car is reliable for sure.

You also seemed to miss out the fact that while I said that the F2012 doesn't seem to be the "fastest", I argued that one could say the car that actually allows the driver to complete more grand prix is the fastest car.

Great. Following this logic Caterham, STR and Marrussia are faster than the top teams, seeing as how Kovalainen, Petrov, Ricciardo and Glock all have only one retirement.

[RB7ate9]

Great. Following this logic Caterham, STR and Marrussia are faster than the top teams, seeing as how Kovalainen, Petrov, Ricciardo and Glock all have only one retirement.

Just wait, you'll see Riccardo, Kovalainen, and Glock on the podiums in Japan!

[zeph]

On a different note, while Hamilton sure has had his share of bad luck and pitcrew errors this year, a quick glance at the stats tells me that Vettel has only had one retirement.

So attributing Alonso's performance solely to the misfortune of others is not backed up by the facts.

I am a fan and hope he bags his third WDC this year, but I do agree that Hamilton should be leading the championship right now. Save the mindless defensive move on Maldonado, he has been flawless this year.


Here's a thought, before replying to this post, check the facts: http://www.formula1.com/results/

[Nando]

Vettel has had two from what i know.

Valencia and Monza.

[beelsebob]

On a different note, while Hamilton sure has had his share of bad luck and pitcrew errors this year, a quick glance at the stats tells me that Vettel has only had one retirement.

So attributing Alonso's performance solely to the misfortune of others is not backed up by the facts.

Incorrect, you're confusing existential and universal quantification. In order to back up that Alonso's lead in the championship is down to the misfortune of others, you don't need to demonstrate that all other drivers would be up with him if it weren't for misfortune. Instead, you need to demonstrate that there exists a driver who, given less misfortune would be up with him. I would argue that there exist two such drivers – 1) Vettel, who has lost 43 points relative to Alonso due to misfortune (1 win at Valencia, Alonso gaining an extra 8 points in Valencia due to Vettel not being ahead of him, and 10 in Monza) 2) Hamilton, who has lost 120 points relative to Alonso due to misfortune (3 in Melbourne due to safety car/pit stop; 10 in China due to gearbox penalty; 8 in Bahrain due to pit stop cock ups, 2 due to overtaking alonso if he didn't have the cockups; 21 from Spain due to qualifying cock up, 3 down to alonso dropping behind him; 15 from Valencia due to being Malfunctionado'd; 18 (probably 25 actually) from Germany due to debris; 15 (maybe more even) from Belgium due to being Greasjeaned; 25 from Singapore due to gearbox disaster).

Of course, Alonso too lost a potential 15-25 due to being Greasjeaned in Belgium, lets give him 25 to give him the benefit of the doubt. That suggests that Vettel should be 18 points closer (not ahead, but very close), and hamilton should be 95 points closer (or rather, 43 points in the clear at the head of the championship).

So, we've demonstrated that there exists one (possibly two) driver who would be ahead of Alonso minus misfortune, and thus Alonso is in the lead due to other driver's misfortune (along with supreme skill in making the Ferrari actually work).

Please note – I'm not trying to assert that Alonso isn't doing great things with a mediocre car here, he is. I'm simply asserting that the luck has rather been one sided this season.

I am a fan and hope he bags his third WDC this year, but I do agree that Hamilton should be leading the championship right now. Save the mindless defensive move on Maldonado, he has been flawless this year.

I'd agree on both points - I wouldn't mind Alonso or Hamilton winning this year, they both deserve it. I will be green if Vettel somehow wins it though.

Edit: Kinda scary that Hamilton is actually on only barely more than half the number of points he should be on if it weren't for missfortune.

[beelsebob]

An interesting extension...
So far, Alonso's not unlucky case would be 219 points out of a possible 375, Vettel's would be 208, and Hamilton's would be 282 points, so without misfortune, Hamilton would have scored 75.2% of all available points, Alonso 58.4%, and Vettel 55.5%. Given that, we can predict that Hamilton should score about 94 points from the remaining races, Alonso should score 73, and Vettel 69. Thus, Alonso should win the championship by 31 ahead of Hamilton, and 33 ahead of Vettel.

[Hail22]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyh1N3aQeE8[/youtube]

[Shrieker]

@Bob,

Nice analysis, but it's nowhere near as straightforward for the remainder of the season me thinks. For example, Button's woes mid season and his recent recovery would throw a huge spanner in your calculation. There are a lot of other things which have changed. Nevertheless, you definitely offer a decent picture without making a mess.

[Nando]

Agree, sure we can say if this guy did this and this guy did thhis he would most likely lead but to choose specific points lost is a bit of a useless concept.
Even trying to predict the future races is also a bit useless. Like odds that swing up and down after each race.

What we can say for sure is that Alonso would not have this massive lead if it weren't for bad luck striking RBR and Mclaren.
What happens in the remaining races remains to be seen.

To me it's wide open until people don't have a mathematical chance of winning the title.
It aint over til the fat lady sings and if Alonso sings at the end then all the best to him, he's been phenomenal this year.

[zeph]

Incorrect, you're confusing existential and universal quantification.

Do tell....

In order to back up that Alonso's lead in the championship is down to the misfortune of others, you don't need to demonstrate that all other drivers would be up with him if it weren't for misfortune.

I'm not one to play the "what if" game, I find it an exercise in futility, much like your whole alternative points distribution model based on possible outcomes disregarding Vettel's and Hamilton's perceived misfortunes.
If you like to demonstrate how Alonso was thus given the advantage, you should also account for the points he lost due to factors beyond his control (tires falling off the cliff, tactical cockups etc.), but don't stop there.
Why limit ourselves to the leaders? Let's take stock of all the bad luck of all drivers and teams and amend the WDC standings accordingly. Who's leading then? You know the answer: it doesn't matter.

The assertion that Alonso has simply lucked his way into the lead holds no substance. Luck is ALWAYS a factor. Every season, all the time. If a WDC was purely a matter of calculation nobody would be interested. So what if Alonso has been lucky, are you gonna sit there and tell me that Hamilton did not luck his way into the WDC in 2008?

So my beef here is the suggestion that Alonso leads merely because of the others' misfortune, as it is really just another way of discrediting his near-perfect performance ALL year.