Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team 2013

[Cocles]

Statements from Bob Bell...

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/105894

[spadeflush]

I think we can really expect a good season from Mercedes this year. They have had the best winter testing since Brawn, and I am not talking about the headline times. Their long runs have been consistent as well ( unlike last year when the car was fast over one lap but there were concerns about high degradation during testing) and almost everyone in the paddock seems to think they are a major threat. Having said that, I dnt expect them to be championship contenders but they will definitely be in the mix with maybe one or two victories.

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong. Hopefully this technical structure will give the desired results and the development will not suffer like last year. They have arguably got the best driver line up on the grid. 4th place seems pretty realistic for now.

[Cocles]

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong.

You are correct. When the Costa and Willis hires were announced in 2011, the parade rainers quickly pointed out that it wouldn't be until 2013 when we really saw their influence. This is the car we've been waiting two years for. Some forgot this and spent last season complaining that Costa and Willis had had zero effect on the team. Now we're seeing it and so far it's looking pretty dang good.

[Adamski]

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong.

You are correct. When the Costa and Willis hires were announced in 2011, the parade rainers quickly pointed out that it wouldn't be until 2013 when we really saw their influence. This is the car we've been waiting two years for. Some forgot this and spent last season complaining that Costa and Willis had had zero effect on the team. Now we're seeing it and so far it's looking pretty dang good.

Yeah, it's really the time for them to show some progress. I just guess what the hell they are doing since 2010, as it was the first year when they start talking about reorganizations if I remember good...

Anyway, from what I have seen on the internet I bet them to be around 4th or 5th on the grid. They delivered less upgrades during the winter test than some of their compatriots and it's again raise some questions about their development speed. The tire changes help them a bit but I still fear they will have some problems with it.

China and Monaco could be their highest in the season based on historical results but other than these races it will be very hard to get on to the podium. Maybe a bit more podiums than in the past.

What are your thoughts?

[Anon123]

What are your thoughts?

2nd/3rd in terms of quali pace and 4th in terms of race pace. That's based on comments from various sources and my own optimism. I think Lotus and Red Bull are the teams that have an all round better package than Mercedes, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Mercedes are ahead of Mclaren given their major design change and Ferrari as they were close last year when it comes to pure speed. Mercedes thought they had improved a lot prior to the start of the season and apparently their new wind tunnel is producing reliable data unlike Ferrari's.

[clipsy1H]

a lot of enthusiasm here.... for sure 2013 car will be much much faster than 2012 but we have to wait first half of the season or at least firsts 6-8 race because last year they were high in first part and Red Bull show us that a championship can be won in second part of a season even if you didn't perform well in first part.
I still remember comments after China Grand Prix when Rosberg dominate the race and all predicts Mercedes in fight for Championship
I think Lewis will be in top in Australia but I do not think he will fight for the title this year... Red Bull is too strong and i don't see how they lose time over winter with almost no regulation change

[Cocles]

I'm matching my expectations with Toto Wolff and expecting at least fourth in the constructors championship. But if I could have my druthers, without being greedy and asking for the championship, I would ask for one thing-- Beat Ferrari.

[yener]

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong.

You are correct. When the Costa and Willis hires were announced in 2011, the parade rainers quickly pointed out that it wouldn't be until 2013 when we really saw their influence. This is the car we've been waiting two years for. Some forgot this and spent last season complaining that Costa and Willis had had zero effect on the team. Now we're seeing it and so far it's looking pretty dang good.

I can remember that Aldo Costa was at the track when they tested for the Young Drivers at the end of the W02 season, so he did had a big influence on the W03.
But for sure all the new employees will show their influence this year while the w03 had a little bit of them, but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

[Dyanxx]

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong.

You are correct. When the Costa and Willis hires were announced in 2011, the parade rainers quickly pointed out that it wouldn't be until 2013 when we really saw their influence. This is the car we've been waiting two years for. Some forgot this and spent last season complaining that Costa and Willis had had zero effect on the team. Now we're seeing it and so far it's looking pretty dang good.

I can remember that Aldo Costa was at the track when they tested for the Young Drivers at the end of the W02 season, so he did had a big influence on the W03.
But for sure all the new employees will show their influence this year while the w03 had a little bit of them, but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

You have to expect Mercedes to have improved their inseason development, I can't see how they can be as bad as they were last season, and with the windtunnel scale now at 60% instead of 50% it should make it easier to bring upgrades to the track and work instead of bringing multiple parts to the track that actually don't bring the intended gains.

[PlatinumZealot]

Also this is the first year when all the new technical staff has collectively contributed to the car from scratch, correct me if I am wrong.

You are correct. When the Costa and Willis hires were announced in 2011, the parade rainers quickly pointed out that it wouldn't be until 2013 when we really saw their influence. This is the car we've been waiting two years for. Some forgot this and spent last season complaining that Costa and Willis had had zero effect on the team. Now we're seeing it and so far it's looking pretty dang good.

I can remember that Aldo Costa was at the track when they tested for the Young Drivers at the end of the W02 season, so he did had a big influence on the W03.
But for sure all the new employees will show their influence this year while the w03 had a little bit of them, but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

No he did not. Brawn has stated this many times. Aldo did not design the W03.. there was no point in him wasting time on it anyway because the design was almost done and when it raced they stopped development mid season and used it as a test mule for the W04...

[sAx]

Actually, he's started as a machine operator by trade.

My personal view is that he could best be described as a design leader - a manger and leader of people as opposed to a genius designer.

Exactly!
We tend to gift team principals or the members of a team who are mostly in the limelight with the achievements of others.
Brawn never claimed to be the brainchild of any innovation, it's funny how people attribute his past teams success to him solely, when in fact he was part of a bigger team. His strength i feel is holding things together, moreso than his own abilities.

A little harsh. Should remember back in the day he designed the class whipping TWR XJR-14 for the WSC, that gave a certain Mr Brundle severe neck ache (g-load) as he trounced the opposition around silverstone. So Mr Brawn certainly knows when good is great!

[Cocles]

but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

You may indeed be right, but we need to make sure that we're not succumbing to availability bias. The BGP-001 of course fell behind, as did the W03. The W02 however, flawed as it was, maintained the gap with Red Bull throughout the season.

I think 2013 in-season development will largely hinge on when the team decides to put the bulk of their focus on the W05.

[wunderkind]

but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

You may indeed be right, but we need to make sure that we're not succumbing to availability bias. The BGP-001 of course fell behind, as did the W03. The W02 however, flawed as it was, maintained the gap with Red Bull throughout the season.

I think 2013 in-season development will largely hinge on when the team decides to put the bulk of their focus on the W05.

I think Brawn will have to continue to develop the W04 throughout the season because his position very much depends on the success of 2013.

I think Brawn will only throw in the towel if the W04 turns out to be some way off the Red-Bull, Ferrari, Lotus, and McLaren by the fourth or fifth race this season. Then he will have no choice but to focus on the W05. But I think this is highly unlikely. The W04 looks good out of the box and I'm sure Geoff Willis and Mike Elliott are working hard on the next big aero update.

[sAx]

but i'm warning all of you. Last year the w03 was looking very good at the beginning of the season and they couldnt keep up with the top teams who were updating their car. Mercedes did not develop in the mid season and the others did. I hope it changed and they can be strong all the season.

You may indeed be right, but we need to make sure that we're not succumbing to availability bias....

Optimisim bias surely?

[Cocles]

You may indeed be right, but we need to make sure that we're not succumbing to availability bias....

Optimisim bias surely?

My point being, we need to make sure we're not tunnel visioning on the W03's development cycle, when there's a bigger pool of data available. Some are referring to Mercedes in-season development as being consistently bad, which doesn't hold up under scrutiny when you account for the W02. Note, I'm not saying they're particularly awesome with in-season development either. So far they seem to be more Up, Down, Up, Down...