COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Restomaniac]

F1 should errect a quarantine zone in and around Paul Ricard and race there 22 races.
22 layouts shoul be easily possible.

By the time we arrive at Paul Ricard the virus will have died out.

It’s very brave to be so certain about it.

[Shrieker]

Can covid 19 (or any other influenza strain for that matter) be eradicated ?

[Zynerji]

Can covid 19 (or any other influenza strain for that matter) be eradicated ?

An Israeli company has stated they will have an inoculation within a few weeks. Apparently, they already have one for a virus that is genetically similar, and they just need to test some adjustments.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... 9-vaccine/

[DChemTech]

Can covid 19 (or any other influenza strain for that matter) be eradicated ?

Theoretically, I suppose if you place everyone in isolation (that is, out of mutual sneezing distance) for a sufficiently long time, either the carrier or the virus dies without transmission. So that should do the job. Then again, soon enough another variant will pop up.

Practically, the combination of easy infection, low mortality and high mutability of a single-strand RNA virus make it unrealistic unless you can contain the outbreak early on.

[marmer]

Wonder if it's possible for venues to move about. Russia used to be early some of the European venues whilst cold might be more suitable if brahain and Vietnam get postponed.

They haven’t even managed to reschedule 1 race, let alone many

It’s not just a case of changing the dates, hotels & transport etc. Has to be booked well in advance along and the biggest headache is spectators who again have booked travel & hotels etc. Who won’t get a penny back for this so would have to pay twice

It might well be a pain and spectators will loose out but not running anywhere near a full calendar would hurt the sport more.

Sure not swapping China makes sense as it could be pushed in somewhere else or its only 1 race dropped. But if you have a situation where multiple need to be done there just won't be the space without bringing over races forward

[JonoNic]

Bringing a race forward would increase the risk of that very race being cancelled because not much about the virus is known. Having a race late in the season is an advantage as the fears may subside by then.

[wonk123]

COVID-19 so far has a far higher fatality rate (to be fair, which will decrease as it spreads) but still.

As an example, and based on numbers from my local newspaper (source apparently: John Hopkins Univerity numbers and the WHO):

China: 77'114 infected (from those healed: 44'473), fatalities: 2912 -> 3.78%
Switzerland: 28 infected (from those healed: 1), fatalities: 0 -> 0.00%
Italy: 1'777 infected (from those healed: 83), fatalities: 34 -> 1.91%
Rest of the world *: 8'914 (from those healed: 601), fatalities: 132 -> 1.48%

* I assume these numbers are infected outside China, but without Switzerland and Italy.

For an accurate comparison, one would have to include the number in each age-group, but I think it's pretty undisputed so far that COVID-19 is in fact deadlier than the common flu.

These numbers are misleading as they used a flawed methodology. The current numbers are actually higher, although as you say, they should drop over time.

The mortality rate is usually worked out at the end of a pandemic and it is deaths/infections, and this is how the figures here are derived. During the outbreak a more accurate formula is deaths/(deaths + recovered) so in your example The Chinese mortality rate is over 6%. I am not sure why they are using an obviously flawed methodology

[Phil]

I actually used (currently infected + recovered) / death.

The infected numbers were already the total (active + healed). Sorry for being unclear about that.

[hollus]

Until people with the virus start glowing in funny colors, we simply don't know how many people is infected. Think about it: what constitutes, in the eyes of your country's health system, an infected person? This makes infection rates massively dependent on the counting an testing an diagnosing systems used, and changeable with time, as it is extremely unlikely that anyone is counted in the first week of his or her infection. (Chicken pox kind of meets this criterium, kind of).

[AJI]

Until people with the virus start glowing in funny colors, we simply don't know how many people is infected. Think about it: what constitutes, in the eyes of your country's health system, an infected person? This makes infection rates massively dependent on the counting an testing an diagnosing systems used, and changeable with time, as it is extremely unlikely that anyone is counted in the first week of his or her infection. (Chicken pox kind of meets this criterium, kind of).

We can probably say that the first world have a reasonably good handle on actual numbers (although US doctors have complained of a lack of testing facilities to be able to accurately report, so yeah..)
The third world hasn't reported many cases at all, so it's either not in those countries, or is unreported. The latter seems more likely.

[Wouter]

About Vietnam:

UPDATED: March 3nd, 2020
Aviation and entry policies at Vietnam’s airports.

All travellers entering Vietnam from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran must carry out medical declarations and 14-day medical quarantine before entering the country.

https://vietnam.travel/things-to-do/inf ... us-vietnam

[adrianjordan]

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

The figure of 0.1% for Influenza is 0.1% of the entire population. Though that fluctuates each year depending on a multitude of factors. Remember that figure is also despite immunisation programmes. The actual fatality rate for infected patients varies between 1 and 6% depending on strain etc.

The figures of 1-2% for Covid-19 are of infected patients. So yes, if everyone catches it the fatality rate will be much higher than flu, but it seems unlikely that everyone will catch it since even something that is similarly contagious like Norovirus doesn't infect 100% of the population.

The media is, as they so often do, comparing apples and oranges.

All the current measures are because we're in the containment phase, trying to limit the spread. Every independent expert I've heard from expects that to fail within the next month or two. After that life will go back to normal.

[AJI]

... Every independent expert I've heard from expects that to fail within the next month or two. After that life will go back to normal.

You mean, we'll just have another strain of the 'flu'? Perhaps... Although, I'm not sure economists agree with your experts...

[izzy]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1234575929252483075

About Vietnam:

UPDATED: March 3nd, 2020
Aviation and entry policies at Vietnam’s airports.

All travellers entering Vietnam from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran must carry out medical declarations and 14-day medical quarantine before entering the country.

https://vietnam.travel/things-to-do/inf ... us-vietnam

well there aren't 14 days between Bahrain and Vietnam so F1 can't do both, then. And Italy is being lumped in with China, so that's not good news for Oz or in fact any races

meltdown

[Phil]

Numbers for the entire population are useless, especially when we compare it to COVID-19. In Switzerland, it is estimated that around 3,5-10% are infected with flu every year. We have a population of roughly 8 million, so 3.5-10% would equal between 280'000 - 800'000 people. From those, between 1000-5000 are hospitalized and up to 1500 die.

That's 0.1875 - 0.54%.

Another fun fact about these statistics are, is that not all fatalities are from one single cause (e.g. Influenza A), especially in elderly people, but may be still attributed to it. I expect many other countries to have similar way of counting these numbers. And no, this isn't taking the entire population and counting "non infected" to reduce the mortality rate. If we'd do that, then the number (8 million / 1500) would be 0.019%.

Many people have the flu, had the flu a few times during their life time so far. And we're still here and typing. Now I'm not saying the COVID-19 will end us, far from it, but the numbers so far in countries (in this case Italy among others) suggest a far higher mortality rate among even healthy, younger people. This number will surely converge as more become infected and 'survive it', but for now the dead toll is also growing quickly, despite all the measures that are being undertaken (quarantine, home-office, avoiding contact to elderly).