bhall II wrote:Work with me here...
Based on maximum tire diameter, maximum track width, and frontal area of the rear wing, I estimate the total frontal area for a 2004 car to be ~1.38m^2.
According to
a somewhat dodgy website, horsepower for the Petronas 04A, which was a re-badged Ferrari Type 053 V10, was 880bhp. (Seems low, but whatever.)
During qualifying for the 2004 Chinese Grand Prix, Felipe Massa set the fastest trap speed at 330.3kph in a C23 equipped with the Petronas 04A.
The importance of these figures is this: if we plug them into the drag acceleration calculator, along with straight length and corner exit speed (based on
this track guide), we can solve for drag coefficient (Cd).
http://i.imgur.com/m9tn3gT.jpg
This yields a Cd of 0.85 and a maximum speed of 331kph, the latter being indicative of a car set up specifically for that circuit. Why does this matter?
Despite having more total drag (CdA), we can use the Cd of a 2004 car to more or less establish the upper limit for a 2015 car, as long as we account for its reduced frontal area. (That's the "A" in CdA; it's a reference area. For a wing, it's planform. For a car, it's frontal area.)
With DRS engaged, I estimate the frontal area of a 2015 car to be ~ 1.26m^2. If we plug that into the calculator, along with the increased weight of the car, we can use Nico Rosberg's trap speed of 334.6 at the 2015 Chinese Grand Prix to estimate the upper limit of the W06's horsepower.
http://i.imgur.com/6J7jGqX.jpg
That gives us 850bhp.
To cross reference, we can plug those figures into the calculator and compare the result to Rosberg's qualifying trap speed at the 2015 Australian Grand Prix (based on
this track guide), because Albert Park has very similar downforce requirements.
http://i.imgur.com/fA1Dt1o.jpg
Close enough for me!
In reality, I suspect current cars have a lower drag coefficient, and thus lower horsepower according to these calculations. But, 850bhp does seem like a reasonable upper limit.
(Note: I gathered figures for a 2004 car back when the conversation involved comparisons between V10s and current PUs. If anyone is inclined to do so, comparing a current car in this manner to a car from 2010-2013 will likely give a more accurate result.)