Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team 2014

[Phil]

22 points is still a massive advantage for Rosberg with the 6 races remaining

Three more wins and Rosberg taking second and the gap is down to 1 point with 3 more races to go.

Definitely doable.

Sure. The other way to look at it - if Rosberg wins 2 more races with Lewis coming second to him, he can afford to come 2nd in the other 4 remaining races, including Abu Dhabi, and he'll take the WDC by a single point. Doesn't really matter which two races he wins. That is, assuming the Mercedes finish 1/2 in every remaining race and no DNFs. Probably unlikely, but any one time one of the Mercedes driver doesn't at least come 2nd, it'll be costly, more so for Lewis, because he's the one chasing.

I don't doubt that Lewis can line up 6 straight victories (he's done 4 this year), but doing that while knowing that every mistake could be crucial and the end of it, makes it a tad more difficult. Then there's the thing about DNFs and the element of luck and all the while, Rosberg is good and very consistent and a damn good qualifyer too. Rosberg can play the number game, and due to his lead, can afford to put less strain on his equipment and drive. Lewis can't really do that - he *needs* to win. If he wants to be sure, at least 5 wins. 4 won't cut it, even with Abu Dhabi double point finish, assuming Rosberg comes 2nd.

I guess we can chuck the numbers back and forward, but IMO, there's a high probability there are still technical issues or a potential DNF that could change the picture very quickly. If it hits Lewis, I'd call it game-over, if it hits Rosberg, it will be neck on neck...

My gut feeling tells me though that Rosberg has this one this year. Lewis just has had too many technical issues so it will be at the back of his mind and as good as Rosberg is, he won't walk this one easily. I'll gladly be proven wrong though.

[SiLo]

Agreed. I'm just hoping for a DNF for Rosberg so that they are both on level terms when it comes to retirements. At least that way whoever wins will have done so on a slightly more level playing field.

[Phil]

One more thing about the numbers game in my post: If Lewis wins the next 5 races while Nico comes 2nd, if Nico wins Abu Dhabi double points, he also takes the WDC by one point. That's quite an advantage IMO.

One thing I am certain of though; I don't think we'll see a Mercedes 1 / 2 in all next 6 races...

[CHT]

I read that Nico was being "punished" for what happened in Spa. Did merc said what was the penalty for Nico?

[Juzh]

P.S.: Rocky is not Vettel's engineer this year and that could also be a reason why Sebastian is struggling in terms of race strategy.

He is. He's getting a promotion for 2015 when Newey leaves.

[Blanchimont]

Why not look at it this way: When Lewis can manage to stay within 13 points behind Rosberg before the final race, then a win in Abu Dhabi will give him the championship.

[dans79]

One thing I am certain of though; I don't think we'll see a Mercedes 1 / 2 in all next 6 races...

I agree with this, I have a feeling that some point along the way Nico is going to have another transmission problem, as He's had two now.

[turbof1]

Why not look at it this way: When Lewis can manage to stay within 13 points behind Rosberg before the final race, then a win in Abu Dhabi will give him the championship.

It's difficult to guess how they will be going into that last race points-wise. Let's make a very optimistic assumption and say they end all races as first and second. Let's also assume they have equal chance of winning a GP. 5 GP's between now and Abu Dhabi, that could mean that either Hamilton closed the gap down to 15 points (3x 7 points gain vs 2x 7 points loss) or that Rosberg extended the gap to 29 points. In both cases Hamilton would still need to rely on Rosberg having mechanical issues.

It's a big writing on the wall, and the most simplest truth, but for Hamilton to close down the gap, by simply assuming they keep ending up as 1st and second all the remaining races, he NEEDS to win 4 out of 5 coming races, in order to have everything in his own hands in the final race.

Oh, and Hamilton has one less engine to his disposal. Realistically speaking, Hamilton needs a DNF for Rosberg. That could allow him to put in a sixth PU and take a penalty for it.

[dans79]

Oh, and Hamilton has one less engine to his disposal. Realistically speaking, Hamilton needs a DNF for Rosberg. That could allow him to put in a sixth PU and take a penalty for it.

I think if Lewis can make it through the next race without any issues he will be in the clear. he has used the exact same number of components as Nico, his just has a little more mileage on them.

[turbof1]

Oh, and Hamilton has one less engine to his disposal. Realistically speaking, Hamilton needs a DNF for Rosberg. That could allow him to put in a sixth PU and take a penalty for it.

I think if Lewis can make it through the next race without any issues he will be in the clear. he has used the exact same number of components as Nico, his just has a little more mileage on them.

http://www.formula1blog.com/wp-content/ ... U-use1.png

The list isn't correct - For instance Kvyat is using a sixth engine already:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/115723
while the list is showing 5. I'm sure there are other issues with the list. I personally believe Hamilton is already at 5 engines, perhaps one slightly less used.

[NTS]

The list is the number used before the Italian GP. Kvyat used his 6th engine in that weekend, so the list is correct.

[turbof1]

The list is the number used before the Italian GP. Kvyat used his 6th engine in that weekend, so the list is correct.

So basicilly a post-Spa list. Is there an up to date list around? I searched for it, but couldn't find one.

[NTS]

I have never seen a post-race list, but the used components are in the technical report I think. So you could add that to the pre-weekend report to get the current status. Or wait for the next race, they publish this on Wednesday or Thursday.

[Just_a_fan]

Don't forget that Hamilton has an engine that is only half used - the Australian ICE did not run a race distance so is still partially "fresh".

[marcush.]

22 points is still a massive advantage for Rosberg with the 6 races remaining

Three more wins and Rosberg taking second and the gap is down to 1 point with 3 more races to go.

Definitely doable.

I feel, Lewis needs a better race engineer than Peter Bonnington and may be the whole of race management team. All of Lewis' results at Merc are of his own smart thinking with very little help from his race engineer. So many times Bonnington comes on radio when Lewis does not need it and seems sleeping when he actually need him. And whenever he gives inputs, most of the times Lewis ignores it. Yesterday's was also a classical case. In last few years, I have seen only Rocky (Vettel's engineer) and Andrea Stella (fernando's engineer) to be precise and very effective race engineers who understand what their driver exactly need.

P.S.: Rocky is not Vettel's engineer this year and that could also be a reason why Sebastian is struggling in terms of race strategy.

apart from Jock Clear and Andy Shovlin who else would you fancy to have in your engineering team to be able to say there is nothing more to be found..
We just cannot judge from a armchair enthusíasts perspective with conversations rarely broadcasted in real time...