2013 German GP - Nurburgring

[WhiteBlue]

When you look at how near Kimi and Massa are you have to think that both Merc and Red Bull are sandbagging.

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel is on the soft and Webber is on the medium. Their long runs show that the soft is degrading a lot quicker on the Red Bulls. In fact the medium is probably good for 30 or 40 laps.

[Sevach]

Rosberg's fronts look awful.

[godlameroso]

This is going to be a repeat of China. Lotus is relatively quick here, if they qualify within the first three rows, their superior tire management will basically hand them the race.

Interesting strategy from Ferrari to have Alonso follow Massa, I guess they figure that Alonso has no shot at nabbing pole so they do all their preparation for the race. Perhaps they're assessing the difference in wear that chasing someone else imparts. If the cars are relatively evenly paced, the one that preserves the tires better can force the driver he's dueling with into mistakes. I hope Vettel doesn't get caught in such a tussle or he'll fold faster than superman on laundry day.

[Sevach]

When you look at how near Kimi and Massa are you have to think that both Merc and Red Bull are sandbagging.

Kimi might be an outside bet this weekend imo, the softs are waaaaaaay faster but don't last very long, Lotus has been the team that makes good use of the option tyres regularly while everyone more or less races on primes.

Qualifying wise there's no telling if Merc retained it's advantage or Red Bull caught up with the new tyres, we have to wait and see.

[WhiteBlue]

Rosberg and Hamilton had a lot of graining with the options while Kimi looked brilliant on them. I say they will all qualify on the options. Red Bull will be the first to change to primes during the race and Kimi will be swept forward when the Bulls and Mercs have to come in early. The question will be whether the Bulls will keep their superior pace on the primes. I reckon that Vettel and Webber have the upper hand over the Mercs with Lotus shining in the middle of the race. Difficult to say what Ferrari will do. They don't look as good as Lotus on the options and qualifying wise could be third row.

[iotar__]

From untouchable RB and Merc before the race, Merc 1 s. ahead after FP1 to Lotus have a chance after FP2. Business as usual. Even weather is not in predicted super heat range.

[gandharva]

The question will be whether the Bulls will keep their superior pace on the primes.

That's not a question. Just look at the longrun pace of RBR. Vettel and Webber are ~1s faster than Mercs on Medium and as fast as Lotus and Ferrari with Softs. OPP for the win tomorrow. 1 stop will be too slow for win imho as the option tire slows down alot after some time.

[WhiteBlue]

Lotus will probably one stop only. The question is who else?

[gandharva]

McLaren, Ferrari and ForceIndia could also try to one stop. But it will be too slow because of degrading option tires.

Mercs and Bulls will do 6-8 (if at all) laps on options and then slap on primes. Even on a Lotus options are down to mid 1:38,xx to 1:39,xx after 5+ laps. That's simply too slow.

[rssh]

McLaren, Ferrari and ForceIndia could also try to one stop. But it will be too slow because of degrading option tires.

Mercs and Bulls will do 6-8 (if at all) laps on options and then slap on primes. Even on a Lotus options are down to mid 1:38,xx to 1:39,xx after 5+ laps. That's simply too slow.

It more gonna be like 2 stops for FI and Lotus and 3 stops for others . Mark did 22 laps competitive laps on the primes but the soft tyres hardly lasted 8 laps on full fuel for Vettel. I think they can go flat out this race with 3 stops but they better improve the top speed .

[myurr]

The question will be whether the Bulls will keep their superior pace on the primes.

That's not a question. Just look at the longrun pace of RBR. Vettel and Webber are ~1s faster than Mercs on Medium and as fast as Lotus and Ferrari with Softs. OPO (Or OPP if gap is wide) for the win tomorrow. 1 stop will be too slow for win imho as the option tire slows down alot after some time.

If Merc's long run was with stint 1 fuel and Red Bull's was with stint 2 fuel, then that 1s gap is explained just in fuel weight. Those have been their test strategies in most free practice sessions this year.

[gandharva]

McLaren, Ferrari and ForceIndia could also try to one stop. But it will be too slow because of degrading option tires.

Mercs and Bulls will do 6-8 (if at all) laps on options and then slap on primes. Even on a Lotus options are down to mid 1:38,xx to 1:39,xx after 5+ laps. That's simply too slow.

It more gonna be like 2 stops for FI and Lotus and 3 stops for others . Mark did 22 laps competitive laps on the primes but the soft tyres hardly lasted 8 laps on full fuel for Vettel. I think they can go flat out this race with 3 stops but they better improve the top speed .

Webber did 30 laps and Bottas did 44+ laps on one set of medium tires. Webber was able to maintain 1:36,xx over the complete stint. No need for 3 stops imho.

[gandharva]

The question will be whether the Bulls will keep their superior pace on the primes.

That's not a question. Just look at the longrun pace of RBR. Vettel and Webber are ~1s faster than Mercs on Medium and as fast as Lotus and Ferrari with Softs. OPO (Or OPP if gap is wide) for the win tomorrow. 1 stop will be too slow for win imho as the option tire slows down alot after some time.

If Merc's long run was with stint 1 fuel and Red Bull's was with stint 2 fuel, then that 1s gap is explained just in fuel weight. Those have been their test strategies in most free practice sessions this year.

Webber probably was on stint 2 fuel, but not Vettel, as it makes no sense to not check options degradation with stint 1 fuel. RedBull is for sure not going to start the race on prime tires.

[iotar__]

Judging from long runs pace it should be walk in the park for Red Bull. Unless weather and softs play their part.