Strategy guide for the Belgian Grand Prix

F1 Grand Prix, GP Belgium, Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Despite having collected only a very limited amount of data so far this weekend, Pirelli expects that the two-stop strategy will emerge as the fastest approach to complete today's 44-lap Belgian Grand Prix. F1Technical's senior writer Balázs Szabó dwells on possible race strategies for today's Spa F1 race.

Despite Spa being a very challenging track for tyres, teams have relatively soft compounds to work with at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix. Pirelli has nominated the the C2 as P Zero White hard, C3 as P Zero Yellow medium and C4 as P Zero Red soft for the Spa F1 weekend that features the third sprint format in 2023.

In fact, the tyre selection is the same as it was last year, meaning that teams can build on the data and experience they gained a year ago. However, it is still an exciting choice considering the nature of the 7.004km Spa circuit. The longest track on the Formula One calendar Francorchamps is a circuit where the tyres are subjected to considerable forces.

The most challenging part for tyres is the compression at Eau Rouge followed by the climb up to Raidillon: consisting of a high speed left-hand turn, where the downforce squashes the car into the ground, followed by another high-speed right-left kink where the car goes light at the top of the hill onto the Kemmel straight.

Heavy rains have wreaked havoc on the Spa-Francorchamps event throughout the weekend, causing disruptions and delays. Saturday’s F1 action needed to be delayed with both the sprint shootout qualifying and the sprint itself having kicked off later than planned due to heavy showers.

Because of the tragic death of race drivers in the past at the Spa track, FIA is taking extra care of the conditions and only allows on-track action when it feels it is safe for the drivers. That is why the action had to be delayed multiple times over the weekend.

While Friday and Saturday turned into a washout on multiple occasions, Sunday should feature better climatic conditions. Currently, there is no rain at Spa. The F3 race started on damp surface in the morning, but the F2 and the Porsche Supercup races took place in dry conditions.

However, rain is forecasted for the evening, and there is a 30% chance of rain for the grand prix itself, with the possibility of showers increasing for the closing stages of the 44-lap race.

Tyre allocation will not play a significant role today. While drivers were heavily limited at last weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix in terms of tyre allocation with only 11 sets having been available at the Hungaroring, the Spa race weekend saw the normality return. Every driver has had 13 sets of slick tyres to play with during the three-day race weekend.

Moreover, as the the opening practice and the sprint race took place in wet conditions and the qualifying and the sprint qualifying were also held in partly damp conditions, drivers have hardly used slick tyres so far.

These challenging damp climatic conditions mean that every driver has at least one fresh set of hard, three new sets of mediums and two fresh sets of softs for today’s race. It means that the allocation will not be a limiting factor in finding the best strategy for today’s 44-lap Belgian race.

As for the strategy, nearly all the teams opted for a two-stop strategy last year with all three compounds having been used throughout the 2022 Spa F1 race. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen lined up 14th on the grid after a penalty but won the race with a great fightback, starting on the softs and then completing two stints on the medium.

Like last year, the two-stop strategy is emerging as a clear favourite as far as the race strategy is concerned today. With the soft compound having showed relatively good durability, Pirelli expects drivers to start the race on the soft compound to have a good intial grip off the line and in the first laps.

At the moment, the fastest strategy looks like to switch from the softs to a set of medium and end the race on the same yellow-banded compound. However, another two-stop strategy to complete today’s 44-lap race run is to swap the softs on Lap 15 to mediums before completing the last stage of the race on another fresh set of softs.

The one-stop strategy could also be viable at Spa as well, albeit it would depend on traffic, possible virtual or real safety car interruptions and strategy decisions of rivals. If someone opts for a single stop, it would still be possible to start on the soft compound, but the medium could be a safer option. However, after the opening stint on either on the medium or the soft compound, the one-stop strategy would involve a second, very long stint on the white-walled hard compound.