Strategy guide: Extremely high degradation expected to lead to two-stop strategies
Following the Friday practice day that showed relatively high degradation, Pirelli expects the majority of the field to complete today's Belgian Grand Prix with a two-stop race strategy. F1Technical's lead journalist Balazs Szabo delivers his strategy guide.
History repeated itself yesterday. Max Verstappen was quickest in qualifying for the Belgian Grand Prix (1’53”159 in Q3), but Ferrari's Charles Leclerc will start at the head of the field from pole position at today's Belgian Grand Prix.
The same situation occurred in the previous two years, when the Dutchman was quickest in Q3 – by 632 thousandths from Sainz in 2022 and by 820 from Leclerc in 2023 – but had to give up those pole positions to the two Ferrari drivers because of having exceeded the permitted number of complete power units the first time and gearboxes the second.
And that was the case this year, as the three time world champion was by far the quickest in Q3 (1’53”159) almost six tenths quicker than Leclerc (1’53”754)
This year, Verstappen picked up a ten place grid penalty for using his fifth internal combustion engine of the season, one more than permitted in the regulations. However, the coincidences do not end there. Not only is a Ferrari driver on pole for a third consecutive year, but the next two drivers on the grid are in the same positions they occupied in 2023: Red Bull’s Sergio Perez starts from second on the front row, having set the third fastest time of 1’53”765, while Lewis Hamilton (1’53”835) is third on the grid, just as he was last year, while back in 2022 he was fourth.
Commenting on the qualifying session, Pirelli's Motorsport Director Mario Isola said: “Today was another example of how changeable the weather can be here in Spa!
"In fact, we and the teams were expecting rain to be the feature of Saturday, which meant that the data acquired yesterday will be vital in deciding the best strategy for tomorrow’s race, which regardless of the peculiarities of the Belgian summer, should take place on a dry track."
High tyre stress, middle range
For this, the 14th round of the season, Pirelli has chosen the same trio of compounds as used for the last two years, namely C2 as P Zero White hard, the C3 as P Zero Yellow medium and the C4 as P Zero Red soft.
In terms of stress on the tyres, it is one of the tracks with the highest average levels, even if it does not reach the peaks seen at Silverstone and Suzuka.
The track features all corner types, linked by very fast sections, which makes it difficult for the teams to identify the ideal aerodynamic compromise. In fact, it is not unusual to see cars that are very strong in the fastest first and third sectors, struggling in the second slower one, or vice versa.
Some combinations of corners, for example, Eau Rouge-Raidillon are very demanding and have unique characteristics, in this specific case a strong compression which puts a lot of stress on both the driver and the car.
Usually, degradation at this track is mainly thermal, but the new surface could be a decisive factor in this area, given the extra grip afforded to the tyres.
Two-stop strategy
With warm weather expected for today’s Spa F1 race, Pirelli thinks that drivers will need to pit twice to complete the 44 laps in a race which is believed to feature extremely high tyre degradation.
There are a number of two-stop strategies on the table. To achieve optimum grip for the start, the majority of the drivers are expected to start on the mediums before switching to the hards in the window of Laps 10-15.
Following a relatively long middle stint, all three compounds are considered as potential tyres. Those who stacked up two sets of C2 compounds might complete the remainder of the race on another fresh set of the white-walled tyres. The medium compound could also be a potential tyre to bring the race to a close while those who can extend their middle stint could switch to the softs for a short final stint.
Pirelli does not rule out a start on the red-walled compound, but that would lead to an early first stop and a careful tyre management during the remaining two stints.
"Compared to last year, the new track surface has now shifted the balance significantly towards a two-stop strategy. It also means that the hardest tyre here, the C2, is now much more suitable for the race than it was twelve months ago, to the detriment of the softest C4.
"However, all three compounds are still perfectly viable, also because only four teams – Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Alpine – have two sets of Hards available.
"On paper, the fastest strategy is to run the first stint on the Medium before doing a double stint on the Hard. The logical alternative is to go Medium/Hard/Medium but the Soft/Hard/Hard and Soft/Hard/Medium options cannot be ruled out.
"The one-stop is too slow, while the three-stop, even on a track where overtaking is definitely possible is, at least according to simulations, not faster. A further consideration is that the set-up choices made today remain the same for tomorrow, given that the cars in are in parc ferme and that could also change the balance of power seen in qualifying," concluded Isola.
