Mercedes without Hamilton in numbers

[Gillian]

Hamilton is a great driver but after reading a silly comment stating Mercedes went from 1 to 100 poles after he joined I decided to put it in numbers. It's very rudimentary and it misses a lot of context but it does give some insight. What I did was take the qualifying results and adjust them in steps of 1/10 second, simulating what the result would have been had a x tenth slower driver been driving for Mercedes.

Just looking at these numbers for qualifying it would not have mattered at all if Hamilton was driving for Mercedes or not. Even at 5/10 slower this driver would still have taken 4 poles (!) and Rosberg would have taken 15 (!) instead of 11. Vettel would have taken a single pole. Even a slower driver would still have made it in the top 3 for almost all races. The one race that stands out is Singapore, where a 5/10 slower driver would have dropped to P7, instead of taking pole.

Ofcourse qualifying is not a race, this is just an indication. Can do for more seasons but need some time.

Edit 1:
I added 2015 data and summed Mercedes qualifying positions for each race.
Even at 0.5 second slower there's only a minimal drop in qualifying position, Mercedes still having almost all poles (mostly Rosberg) and the slower driving still taking second or third.

Edit 2:
I added 2016. At 0.5 second slower Hamilton takes 2 poles and Mercedes as a team still has 19 out of 21 poles. The average grid position drop is a bit more, being 16 positions lost over 21 races. There are 21 races this season instead of 19 in 2014 and 2015 which accounts for the difference a bit. Other than that Hamilton had some bad luck in a few sessions which saw him start at the back of the grid or somewhere around P10.

Original 2014
Hamilton poles: 7
Rosberg poles: 11
Massa poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 18
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 87

1/10 slower driver
Other Merc driver poles: 5
Rosberg poles: 12
Massa poles: 1
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 88 | + 1

2/10 slower driver
Other Merc driver poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 13
Massa poles: 1
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 91 | + 4

3/10 slower driver
Other Merc driver poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 15
Massa poles: 1
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 95 | + 8

4/10 slower driver
Other Merc driver poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 15
Massa poles: 1
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 99 | + 12

5/10 slower driver
Other Merc driver poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 15
Massa poles: 1
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 102 | + 15

Original 2015
Hamilton poles: 11
Rosberg poles: 7
Vettel poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 18
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 68
1/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 9
Rosberg poles: 8
Vettel poles: 2
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 69 | + 1

2/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 8
Rosberg poles: 9
Vettel poles: 2
Mercedes poles: 17
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 70 | + 2

3/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 6
Rosberg poles: 10
Vettel poles: 2
Raikkonen poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 16
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 72 | + 4

4/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 12
Vettel poles: 2
Raikkonen poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 16
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 74 | + 6

5/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 4
Rosberg poles: 12
Vettel poles: 2
Raikkonen poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 16
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 77 | + 9


Original 2016
Hamilton poles: 12
Rosberg poles: 8
Riciardo poles: 1
Mercedes poles: 20
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 117*

`* including a session where Hamilton had no time and a unrepresentative P20
1/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 10
Rosberg poles: 9
Riciardo poles: 1
Vettel: 1
Mercedes poles: 19
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 120 | +3

2/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 9
Rosberg poles: 10
Riciardo poles: 1
Vettel: 1
Mercedes poles: 19
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 122 | +5

3/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 6
Rosberg poles: 13
Riciardo poles: 1
Vettel: 1
Mercedes poles: 19
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 126 | +9

4/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 3
Rosberg poles: 16
Riciardo poles: 1
Vettel: 1
Mercedes poles: 19
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 130 | +14

5/10 slower driver
Hamilton poles: 2
Rosberg poles: 17
Riciardo poles: 1
Vettel: 1
Mercedes poles: 19
Qualifying points Mercedes (lower is better): 132 | +16





========

2014

=======
1 Australia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:44.231
Riciardo P2 1:44.548
Rosberg P3 met 1:44.595

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Riciardo P1 1:44.548
Rosberg P2 met 1:44.595
Hamilton P3 met 1:44.631

5/10 slower driver
Riciardo P1 1:44.548
Rosberg P2 met 1:44.595
Hamilton P3 met 1:44.731

2 Malaysia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:59.431
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

1/10 slower driver
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Hamilton P2 met 1:59.531
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

2/10 slower driver
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Hamilton P2 met 1:59.631
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

3/10 slower driver
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Hamilton P2 met 1:59.731
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

4/10 slower driver
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Hamilton P2 met 1:59.831
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

5/10 slower driver
Vettel P2 1:59.486
Hamilton P2 met 1:59.931
Rosberg P3 met 2:00.050

3 Bahrain

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:33.185
Hamilton P2 met 1:33.464
Riciardo P3 1:34.051

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

4 China

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:53.860
Riciardo P2 1:54.455
Vettel P3 met 1:54.960

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

5 Spanish

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:25.232
Rosberg P2 1:25.400
Riciardo P3 met 1:26.285

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:25.400
Hamilton P2 met 1:25.432
Riciardo P3 met 1:26.285

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:25.400
Hamilton P2 met 1:25.532
Riciardo P3 met 1:26.285

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:25.400
Hamilton P2 met 1:25.632
Riciardo P3 met 1:26.285

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:25.400
Hamilton P2 met 1:25.732
Riciardo P3 met 1:26.285

6 Monaco

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:15.989
Hamilton P2 1:16.048
Riciardo P3 met 1:16.384

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:15.989
Riciardo P2 met 1:16.384
Hamilton P3 1:16.448

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:15.989
Riciardo P2 met 1:16.384
Hamilton P3 1:16.548

7 Canada

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:14.874
Hamilton P2 1:14.953
Vettel P3 met 1:15.548

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

8 Austria

Original:
Massa P1 met 1:08.759
Bottas P2 1:08.846
Rosberg P3 met 1:08.944
Hamilton P9 no time in Q3

9 England

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:35.766
Vettel P2 1:37.386
Button P3 met 1:38.200
---
Hamilton P6 1:39.232 with a gap to P7 more than 1 second so same result

10 Germany

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:16.540
Bottas P2 1:16.759
Massa P3 met 1:17.078
--
Hamilton P16 no time in Q2 so same result

11 Hungary

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:22.715
Vettel P2 1:23.201
Bottas P3 met 1:23.354
--
Hamilton NC no time set same result

12 Belgium

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 2:05.591
Hamilton P2 2:05.819
Vettel P3 met 2:07.717

Gap to Vettel of almost 2 seconds… yeah

13 Italy

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:24.109
Rosberg P2 1:24.383
Bottas P3 met 1:24.697

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:24.383
Hamilton P2 met 1:24.409
Bottas P3 met 1:24.697

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:24.383
Hamilton P2 met 1:24.509
Bottas P3 met 1:24.697

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:24.383
Hamilton P2 met 1:24.609
Bottas P3 met 1:24.697


14 Singapore

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:45.681
Rosberg P2 1:45.688
Bottas P3 met 1:45.854

1/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:45.688
Hamilton P2 met 1:45.781
Bottas P3 met 1:45.854

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:45.688
Bottas P2 met 1:45.854
Hamilton P3 met 1:45.881

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:45.688
Bottas P2 met 1:45.854
Vettel P3 met 1:45.902
Alonso P4 met 1:45.907
Hamilton P5 met 1:45.981

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:45.688
Bottas P2 met 1:45.854
Vettel P3 met 1:45.902
Alonso P4 met 1:45.907
Massa P5 met 1:46.000
Hamilton P6 met 1:46.081

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:45.688
Bottas P2 met 1:45.854
Vettel P3 met 1:45.902
Alonso P4 met 1:45.907
Massa P5 met 1:46.000
Raikkonen P6 met 1:46.170
Hamilton P7 met 1:46.181

15 Japan

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:32.506
Hamilton P2 1:32.703
Bottas P3 met 1:33.128

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:32.506
Bottas P2 met 1:33.128
Hamilton P3 1:33.203

16 Russia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:38.513
Rosberg P2 1:38.713
Bottas P3 met 1:38.920

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:38.713
Hamilton P2 met 1:38.813
Bottas P3 met 1:38.920

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:38.713
Hamilton P2 met 1:38.913
Bottas P3 met 1:38.920

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:38.713
Bottas P2 met 1:38.920
Hamilton P3 met 1:39.013

17 USA

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:36.067
Hamilton P2 1:36.443
Bottas P3 met 1:36.906

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:36.067
Bottas P2 met 1:36.906
Hamilton P3 1:36.943

18 Brazil

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:10.023
Hamilton P2 1:10.056
Massa P3 met 1:10.247

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:10.023
Massa P2 met 1:10.247
Hamilton P3 1:10.256

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:10.023
Massa P2 met 1:10.247
Bottas P3 met 1:10.305
Hamilton P4 1:10.356

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:10.023
Massa P2 met 1:10.247
Bottas P3 met 1:10.305
Hamilton P4 1:10.456

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:10.023
Massa P2 met 1:10.247
Bottas P3 met 1:10.305
Hamilton P4 1:10.556

19 Abu Dhabi

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.480
Hamilton P2 1:40.866
Bottas P3 met 1:41.025

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.480
Bottas P2 met 1:41.025
Hamilton P3 1:41.066

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.480
Bottas P2 met 1:41.025
Bottas P3 met 1:41.119
Hamilton P4 1:41.166

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.480
Bottas P2 met 1:41.025
Bottas P3 met 1:41.119
Hamilton P4 1:41.166

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.480
Bottas P2 met 1:41.025
Bottas P3 met 1:41.119
Hamilton P4 1:41.166

======
2015

=======

1 Australia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:26.327
Rosberg P2 1:26.921
Massa P3 met 1:27.718

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

2 Malaysia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:49.834
Vettel P2 1:49.908
Rosberg P3 met 1:50.299

1/10 slower driver
Vettel 1 1:49.908
Hamilton P2 met 1:49.934
Rosberg P3 met 1:50.299

2/10 slower driver
Vettel 1 1:49.908
Hamilton P2 met 1:50.034
Rosberg P3 met 1:50.299

3/10 slower driver
Vettel 1 1:49.908
Hamilton P2 met 1:50.134
Rosberg P3 met 1:50.299

4/10 slower driver
Vettel 1 1:49.908
Hamilton P2 met 1:50.234
Rosberg P3 met 1:50.299

5/10 slower driver
Vettel 1 1:49.908
Rosberg P2 met 1:50.299
Hamilton P3 met 1:50.334

3 China

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:35.782
Rosberg P2 1:35.824
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

1/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.824
Hamilton P2 met 1:35.882
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.824
Hamilton P2 met 1:35.982
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.824
Hamilton P2 met 1:36.082
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.824
Hamilton P2 met 1:36.182
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.824
Hamilton P2 met 1:36.282
Vettel P3 met 1:36.687

4 Bahrein

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:32.571
Rosberg P2 1:32.982
Massa P3 met 1:33.129

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:32.982
Hamilton P2 met 1:33.071
Massa P3 met 1:33.129


5 Spain

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:24.681
Hamilton P2 1:24.948
Vettel P3 met 1:25.458

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

6 Monaco

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:15.098
Rosberg P2 1:15.440
Vettel P3 met 1:15.849

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:15.440
Hamilton P2 met 1:15.498
Vettel P3 met 1:15.849

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:15.440
Hamilton P2 met 1:15.498
Vettel P3 met 1:15.849

7 Canada

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:14.393
Rosberg P2 1:14.702
Vettel P3 met 1:15.014

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:14.702
Hamilton P2 met 1:14.793
Vettel P3 met 1:15.014

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:14.702
Hamilton P2 met 1:14.893
Vettel P3 met 1:15.014

8 Austria

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:08.455
Rosberg P2 1:08.655
Vettel P3 met 1:08.810

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:08.655
Hamilton P2 met 1:08.755
Vettel P3 met 1:08.810

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:08.655
Vettel P2 met 1:08.810
Hamilton P3 met 1:08.855

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:08.655
Vettel P2 met 1:08.810
Hamilton P3 met 1:08.955

9 Great Britain

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:32.248
Rosberg P2 1:32.361
Massa P3 met 1:33.085

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:32.361
Hamilton P2 met 1:32.448
Massa P3 met 1:33.085

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:32.361
Hamilton P2 met 1:32.548
Massa P3 met 1:33.085

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:32.361
Hamilton P2 met 1:32.648
Massa P3 met 1:33.085

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:32.361
Hamilton P2 met 1:32.648
Massa P3 met 1:33.085

10 Hungary

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:22.020
Rosberg P2 1:22.595
Vettel P3 met 1:22.739

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

11 Belgium

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:47.197
Rosberg P2 1:47.655
Bottas P3 met 1:48.537

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:47.655
Hamilton P2 met 1:47.697
Bottas P3 met 1:48.537

12 Italy

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:23.397
Raikkonen P2 1:23.631
Vettel P3 met 1:23.685

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Raikkonen P1 1:23.631
Vettel P2 met 1:23.685
Hamilton P3 met 1:23.697


4/10 slower driver
Raikkonen P1 1:23.631
Vettel P2 met 1:23.685
Rosberg P3 met 1:23.703
Hamilton P4 met 1:23.797

5/10 slower driver
Raikkonen P1 1:23.631
Vettel P2 met 1:23.685
Rosberg P3 met 1:23.703
Hamilton P4 met 1:23.897

13 Singapore

Original:
Vettel P1 met 1:43.885
Ricciardo P2 1:44.428
Raikkonen P3 met 1:44.667

Hamilton P5 met 1:45.300
Rosberg P6 1:45.415

14 Japan

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:32.584
Hamilton P2 1:32.660
Bottas P3 met 1:33.024

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:32.584
Bottas P2 met 1:33.024
Hamilton P3 1:33.060

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:32.584
Bottas P2 met 1:33.024
Hamilton P3 1:33.160

15 Russia

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:37.113
Hamilton P2 1:37.433
Bottas P3 met 1:37.912

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:37.113
Bottas P2 met 1:37.912
Hamilton P3 1:37.933

16 USA

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:56.824
Hamilton P2 1:56.929
Riciardo P3 met 1:57.969

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result


17 Mexico

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.480
Hamilton P2 1:19.668
Vettel P3 met 1:19.850

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.480
Vettel P2 met 1:19.850
Hamilton P3 1:19.868

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.480
Vettel P2 met 1:19.850
Hamilton P3 1:19.968

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.480
Vettel P2 met 1:19.850
Hamilton P3 1:20.068

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.480
Vettel P2 met 1:19.850
Hamilton P3 1:20.168


18 Brazil

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:11.282
Hamilton P2 1:11.360
Vettel P3 met 1:11.804

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:11.282
Vettel P2 met 1:11.804
Hamilton P3 1:11.860


19 Abu Dhabi

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.237
Hamilton P2 1:40.614
Raikkonen P3 met 1:41.051

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:40.237
Raikkonen P2 met 1:41.051
Hamilton P3 1:41.114


















































==========


2016 season
==========
1 Australia

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:23.837
Rosberg P2 1:24.197
Vettel P3 met 1:24.675

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:24.197
Hamilton P2 met 1:24.237
Vettel P3 met 1:24.675

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:24.197
Hamilton P2 met 1:24.337
Vettel P3 met 1:24.675

2 Bahrain

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:29.493
Rosberg P2 1:29.570
Vettel P3 met 1:30.012

1/10 slower driver
Vettel P12 1:29.570
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.593
Rosberg P3 met 1:30.012

2/10 slower driver
Vettel P1 1:29.570
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.693
Rosberg P3 met 1:30.012

3/10 slower driver
Vettel P1 1:29.570
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.693
Rosberg P3 met 1:30.012

4/10 slower driver
Vettel P1 1:29.570
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.793
Rosberg P3 met 1:30.012

5/10 slower driver
Vettel P1 1:29.570
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.893
Rosberg P3 met 1:30.012

3 China

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:35.402
Riciardo P2 met 1:35.917
Raikkonen P3 met 1:35.972
---
Hamilton no time set
4 Russia

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:35.417
Vettel P2 1:36.123
Bottas P3 met 1:36.536

--
Hamilton P10 1:35.820

5 Spain

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:22.000
Rosberg P2 1:22.280
Riciardo P3 met 1:22.680

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:22.280
Hamilton P2 met 1:22.300
Riciardo P3 met 1:22.680

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:22.280
Hamilton P2 met 1:22.400
Riciardo P3 met 1:22.680

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:22.280
Hamilton P2 met 1:22.500
Riciardo P3 met 1:22.680

6 Monaco

Original:
Riciardo P1 met 1:13.622
Rosberg P2 1:13.791
Hamilton P3 met 1:13.942

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

7 Canada

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:12.812
Rosberg P2 1:12.874
Vettel P3 met 1:12.990

1/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:12.874
Hamilton P2 met 1:12.912
Vettel P3 met 1:12.990

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:12.874
Vettel P2 met 1:12.990
Hamilton P3 met 1:13.012

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:12.874
Vettel P2 met 1:12.990
Hamilton P3 met 1:13.112

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:12.874
Vettel P2 met 1:12.990
Riciardo P3 met 1:13.166
Hamilton P4 met 1:13.212

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:12.874
Vettel P2 met 1:12.990
Riciardo P3 met 1:13.166
Hamilton P4 met 1:13.312

8 Baku

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.758
Perez P2 1:43.515
Riciardo P3 met 1:43.966

--
Hamilton P10 met 2:01.954
9 Austria

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:07.922
Rosberg P2 1:08.465
Hulkenberg P3 met 1:09.285

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result
10 Great Britain

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:29.287
Rosberg P2 1:29.606
Massa P3 met 1:30.313

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:29.606
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.687
Massa P3 met 1:30.313

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:29.606
Hamilton P2 met 1:29.787
Massa P3 met 1:30.313

11 Hungary

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.965
Hamilton P2 1:20.108
Riciardo P3 met 1:20.280

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.965
Riciardo P2 met 1:20.280
Hamilton P3 1:20.308

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.965
Riciardo P2 met 1:20.280
Hamilton P3 1:20.408

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.965
Riciardo P2 met 1:20.280
Hamilton P3 1:20.508

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:19.965
Riciardo P2 met 1:20.280
Verstappen P3 1:20.557
--
Hamilton P4 1:20.608

12 Germany

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:14.363
Hamilton P2 1:14.470
Riciardo P3 met 1:14.726

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:14.363
Riciardo P2 met 1:14.726
Hamilton P3 1:14.770

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:14.363
Riciardo P2 met 1:14.726
Verstappen P3 met 1:14.834
Hamilton P4 1:14.870

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:14.363
Riciardo P2 met 1:14.726
Verstappen P3 met 1:14.834
Hamilton P4 1:14.870

13 Belgium

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:46.744
Verstappen P2 1:46.893
Raikkonen P3 met 1:46.910
--
Hamilton P20 1:50.033

14 Italy

Original:
Hamilton P1 met 1:21.135
Rosberg P2 1:21.613
Vettel P3 met 1:21.972

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Same result

15 Singapore

Original:
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Hamilton P3 1:43.288

1/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Verstappen P3 1:43.328
Hamilton P4 1:43.388

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Verstappen P3 1:43.328
Hamilton P4 1:43.488

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Verstappen P3 1:43.328
Raikkonen P4 1:43.540
Hamilton P5 1:43.588

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Verstappen P3 1:43.328
Raikkonen P4 1:43.540
Hamilton P5 1:43.688

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:42.584
Riciardo P2 met 1:43.115
Verstappen P3 1:43.328
Raikkonen P4 1:43.540
Hamilton P5 1:43.788

16 Malaysia

Original
Hamilton P1 met 1:32.850
Rosberg P2 1:33.264
Verstappen P3 met 1:33.420

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Same result

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:33.264
Hamilton P2 met 1:33.350
Verstappen P3 met 1:33.420

17 Japan

Original
Rosberg P1 met 1:30.647
Hamilton P2 1:30.660
Raikkonen P3 met 1:30.949

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:30.647
Raikkonen P2 met 1:30.949
Hamilton P3 1:30.960

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:30.647
Raikkonen P2 met 1:30.949
Vetttel P3 1:31.028
Hamilton P4 1:31.060

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 met 1:30.647
Raikkonen P2 met 1:30.949
Vetttel P3 1:31.028
Hamilton P4 1:31.060

18 USA

Original
Hamilton P1 met 1:34.999
Rosberg P2 1:35.215
Riciardo P3 met 1:35.509

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.215
Hamilton P2 met 1:35.299
Riciardo P3 met 1:35.509

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.215
Hamilton P2 met 1:35.399
Riciardo P3 met 1:35.509

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:35.215
Hamilton P2 met 1:35.499
Riciardo P3 met 1:35.509


19 Mexico

Original
Hamilton P1 met 1:18.704
Rosberg P2 1:18.958
Verstappen P3 met 1:19.054

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:18.958
Hamilton P2 met 1:19.004
Verstappen P3 met 1:19.054

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:18.958
Verstappen P2 met 1:19.054
Hamilton P3 met 1:19.104

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:18.958
Verstappen P2 met 1:19.054
Riciardo P3 met 1:19.133
Hamilton P4 met 1:19.204

20 Brazil

Original
Hamilton P1 met 1:10.736
Rosberg P2 1:10.838
Raikkonen P3 met 1:11.404

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:10.838
Hamilton P2 met 1:10.936
Raikkonen P3 met 1:11.404

3/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:10.838
Hamilton P2 met 1:11.036
Raikkonen P3 met 1:11.404

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:10.838
Hamilton P2 met 1:11.136
Raikkonen P3 met 1:11.404

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:10.838
Hamilton P2 met 1:11.236
Raikkonen P3 met 1:11.404


21 Abu Dhabi

Original
Hamilton P1 met 1:38.755
Rosberg P2 1:39.058
Riciardo P3 met 1:39.589

1/10 slower driver
Same result

2/10 slower driver
Same result

3/10 slower driver
Same result

4/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:39.058
Hamilton P2 met 1:39.155
Riciardo P3 met 1:39.589

5/10 slower driver
Rosberg P1 1:39.058
Hamilton P2 met 1:39.255
Riciardo P3 met 1:39.589

[flynfrog]

Just a reminder to discuss the data and the methods. Any attacking a poster or going off topic (ie: your favorite driver sucks) will be warnings.

[Gillian]

Thank you. My intention is absolutely not to make Hamilton look bad. That's why I stated in my post that Hamilton is undeniably one of the best of his time. I think adding the numbers for 2015 and 2016 at the very least is necessary to make a clearer picture. Doing an analysis for the races would be great but that takes a lot more effort.

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton is a great driver but after reading a silly comment stating Mercedes went from 1 to 100 poles after he joined

You say it's silly but it's absolutely true. Before Hamilton joined, Mercedes had just 1 pole thanks to Rosberg in China. That's a statement of fact.

[Gillian]

Hamilton is a great driver but after reading a silly comment stating Mercedes went from 1 to 100 poles after he joined

You say it's silly but it's absolutely true. Before Hamilton joined, Mercedes had just 1 pole thanks to Rosberg in China. That's a statement of fact.

It's silly to insinuate that Hamilton is the reason they went from 1 to 100. I just posted the facts for season 2014 which prove that even with a driver 5 tenths a lap slower than Hamilton, Mercedes would have gotten 17 out of a possible 19 poles.

[dans79]

It's silly to insinuate that Hamilton is the reason they went from 1 to 100.

I don't think it's insinuation, but interpretation.

The same can be said for the numbers posted above, because no-one outside of the team knows which driver had greater influence, on set-up for any given race weekend, or on development of the car over the course of the season.

Take the 2013 Bahrain grand prix for example.
Nico took pole while Lewis was 4th, and later dropped to 9th because of a gearbox penalty! In the race, Nico plummeted to 9th while lewis climbed up to 5th. The reason behind the reversal is pretty stratforward as well, either do to a skewed set-up or a driving style difference, Nico ate through his tires. He did a 4 stopper compared to Lewis 3. https://www.racefans.net/2013/04/22/201 ... pit-stops/

in 2014 we saw much of the same thing, Nico had more poles 11 vs Lewis 7, but when it came to race day Lewis had 11 wins to Nico's 5!

In my opinion lewis did make Mercedes better, because he is better at determining how far he can skew set-up towards 1 lap pace without sacrificing race pace. That's why he has always looked better at running his teammate or other drivers down. Poles are great, but if you can't keep them it doesn't mean much.

[Fulcrum]

One element the original poster hasn't taken into account, and no-one can, is Mercedes would have been competing against Hamilton, not just without him. If you value Hamilton very highly, he'd doubtless have provided competition at some point. That said, I don't think it would have mattered in 2014-2016, Mercedes were in another league.

[Gillian]

One element the original poster hasn't taken into account, and no-one can, is Mercedes would have been competing against Hamilton, not just without him. If you value Hamilton very highly, he'd doubtless have provided competition at some point. That said, I don't think it would have mattered in 2014-2016, Mercedes were in another league.

I actually did that but then the numbers are all over the place. You have to swap driver times and add/detract time from both drivers. It's a really distorted picture and it actually did not matter much. Only 3 races where a bit affected and the number of poles stayed the same.

[Gillian]

It's silly to insinuate that Hamilton is the reason they went from 1 to 100.

I don't think it's insinuation, but interpretation.

The same can be said for the numbers posted above, because no-one outside of the team knows which driver had greater influence, on set-up for any given race weekend, or on development of the car over the course of the season.

Take the 2013 Bahrain grand prix for example.
Nico took pole while Lewis was 4th, and later dropped to 9th because of a gearbox penalty! In the race, Nico plummeted to 9th while lewis climbed up to 5th. The reason behind the reversal is pretty stratforward as well, either do to a skewed set-up or a driving style difference, Nico ate through his tires. He did a 4 stopper compared to Lewis 3. https://www.racefans.net/2013/04/22/201 ... pit-stops/

in 2014 we saw much of the same thing, Nico had more poles 11 vs Lewis 7, but when it came to race day Lewis had 11 wins to Nico's 5!

In my opinion lewis did make Mercedes better, because he is better at determining how far he can skew set-up towards 1 lap pace without sacrificing race pace. That's why he has always looked better at running his teammate or other drivers down. Poles are great, but if you can't keep them it doesn't mean much.

If I am being honest it's started to feel a little awkward to keep reiterating I'm not bashing/downplaying Hamilton. I'm not disagreeing with the fact Hamilton is an asset to Mercedes. He is.

I am however debunking the fact Hamilton is the sole reason Mercedes went from 1 to 100 poles. I'm deliberately not talking about races, just poles. Let me put it this way: If a team can take 17 out of 19 poles even when a driver is 0,5 slower each qualifying, then it does not come down to the performance of said driver. Did Hamilton make Mercedes stronger? Doh. Did Hamilton singlehandedly get Mercedes 100 poles? No. Facts posted above debunk that.

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton is a great driver but after reading a silly comment stating Mercedes went from 1 to 100 poles after he joined

You say it's silly but it's absolutely true. Before Hamilton joined, Mercedes had just 1 pole thanks to Rosberg in China. That's a statement of fact.

It's silly to insinuate that Hamilton is the reason they went from 1 to 100. I just posted the facts for season 2014 which prove that even with a driver 5 tenths a lap slower than Hamilton, Mercedes would have gotten 17 out of a possible 19 poles.

It wasn't insinuation it was a statement of fact. It would be silly to claim any team only did well because of a single person, be that team principal, designer or driver.

[notsofast]

This is a technical forum. Someone is trying to figure out a way to put some numbers behind the contribution a driver makes to a team. We can offer help, or we can ignore the thread.

[Zynerji]

This is a technical forum. Someone is trying to figure out a way to put some numbers behind the contribution a driver makes to a team. We can offer help, or we can ignore the thread.

It can not be done perfectly, so it inevitable becomes an argument over subjective things.

I'm not a mod here, so I don't have to shovel the dogsh*t. (The first post being a Mod should clue you in to how these usually go )

[Sieper]

The data is there, quite a job, thanks Gillian. You can then still argue several ways. Even a (much) slower driver could have achieved result, but it was Lewis who did it with up to 5 tenths to spare. How much of that is up to the car or to him is perhaps the real question? For me the answer is that Lewis has a big hand in it. If another great driver would have stepped in instead of Lewis the result will not have differed much imho. Mercedes was just too good. Look back at any race since 2015, always silver silver right in the front. Only the Ferrari engine in 2019 and now then with RBR and Max it hasn’t been a silver silver whitewash in qualifying.

[Gillian]

You say it's silly but it's absolutely true. Before Hamilton joined, Mercedes had just 1 pole thanks to Rosberg in China. That's a statement of fact.

It's silly to insinuate that Hamilton is the reason they went from 1 to 100. I just posted the facts for season 2014 which prove that even with a driver 5 tenths a lap slower than Hamilton, Mercedes would have gotten 17 out of a possible 19 poles.

It wasn't insinuation it was a statement of fact. It would be silly to claim any team only did well because of a single person, be that team principal, designer or driver.

Nice to agree on that. I think this is exactly the cause of all the annoying discussions between "Hamilton fans" and " Verstappen fans". It's not about wether they are good or not, you have to be blind to not see their qualities. It's the extent of their qualities and the impact it has made on (the statistics of) their careers.

[Gillian]

The data is there, quite a job, thanks Gillian. You can then still argue several ways. Even a (much) slower driver could have achieved result, but it was Lewis who did it with up to 5 tenths to spare. How much of that is up to the car or to him is perhaps the real question? For me the answer is that Lewis has a big hand in it. If another great driver would have stepped in instead of Lewis the result will not have differed much imho. Mercedes was just too good. Look back at any race since 2015, always silver silver right in the front. Only the Ferrari engine in 2019 and now then with RBR and Max it hasn’t been a silver silver whitewash in qualifying.

Thank you Sieper. What the numbers show is that Mercedes advantage was such that Hamilton's great drives don't matter as much (in pole numbers). Rosberg would have gotten the job done with a much slower driver next to him.

Races are a different thing for sure and having seem every single race of Hamilton I have no doubt that he performed better than Rosberg. I could run the numbers for race results but I feel this very basic analysis shows enough. I am positive if I do this for all seasons until 2020, you would see 2014 - 2016 pole numbers would stay the same regardless a Hamilton, where 2017/2018 Mercedes would have a lot less. But then you could debate about the effect of losing Rosberg (regarding this specific statistic).