2021 Qatar Grand Prix - Losail, Nov 19-21

[AeroDynamic]

Is it me, or does it look like, sector 3 will be an easy attack for MCS to catch up on the RB after S2, and into a fast corner onto the straight into the DRS zone?

[godlameroso]

At corner speeds above 140kmh the RB16B is untouchable. Losail has many such proper corners, you gain so much on not understeering on entry because it lets you use less steering lock on exit, this leads to less wheelspin and more rear tire preservation. The downforce advantage on the RBR means the rear axle isn't going to wear much faster than the front. Furthermore it looks like the hardest tires will be on offer. From what I can see the medium C2 can probably do 20 laps with a decrease in appreciable performance around lap 16. The hard can likely go close to half race distance but won't be nice to drive on, maybe a little too hard.

It's likely to be another Barcelona type scenario, if Verstappen wants to try the one stop he should use the hard tire, because the medium just won't make it. At 57 laps, 17, 20, 20 will be the standard strategy as the undercut is effective if timed properly.

[NathanOlder]

At corner speeds above 140kmh the RB16B is untouchable. Losail has many such proper corners, you gain so much on not understeering on entry because it lets you use less steering lock on exit, this leads to less wheelspin and more rear tire preservation. The downforce advantage on the RBR means the rear axle isn't going to wear much faster than the front. Furthermore it looks like the hardest tires will be on offer. From what I can see the medium C2 can probably do 20 laps with a decrease in appreciable performance around lap 16. The hard can likely go close to half race distance but won't be nice to drive on, maybe a little too hard.

It's likely to be another Barcelona type scenario, if Verstappen wants to try the one stop he should use the hard tire, because the medium just won't make it. At 57 laps, 17, 20, 20 will be the standard strategy as the undercut is effective if timed properly.

They will do Q2 on Mediums, so what are you saying they will do?

Medium Hard Hard?

[Mr.S]

Mercedes 1-2, Max has a chance for P2 here. No chance @ Jeddah which will be a mauling. Hamilton's new 2500km 4 Race engine is rumoured to give a humongous 15-20 BHP extra (15-20km/hr last race). I don't know with that & half a second gap (in qualifying & after he overtook Max), how did Hamilton manage to trail Verstappen for so long.

It took an incredible drive from Max to keep a car with that kind of straightline speed & overall speed behind. The only positive thing for RB is Merc engine degradation. It is a 4 race engine dialed super up & will not be anwhere fast in Abu Dhabi as it is in Brazil, so there's a chance there.

P2 & P3 is realistically best possible scenario for RB. Mercedes & Hamilton have to seriously screw up to lose this championship !

[Mr.S]

At corner speeds above 140kmh the RB16B is untouchable. Losail has many such proper corners, you gain so much on not understeering on entry because it lets you use less steering lock on exit, this leads to less wheelspin and more rear tire preservation. The downforce advantage on the RBR means the rear axle isn't going to wear much faster than the front. Furthermore it looks like the hardest tires will be on offer. From what I can see the medium C2 can probably do 20 laps with a decrease in appreciable performance around lap 16. The hard can likely go close to half race distance but won't be nice to drive on, maybe a little too hard.

It's likely to be another Barcelona type scenario, if Verstappen wants to try the one stop he should use the hard tire, because the medium just won't make it. At 57 laps, 17, 20, 20 will be the standard strategy as the undercut is effective if timed properly.

RB work better with softer Pirelli tyres while Mercedes does better with the harder ones IMO so I dunno how this helps RB !

[dans79]

Mercedes 1-2, Max has a chance for P2 here. No chance @ Jeddah which will be a mauling. Hamilton's new 2500km 4 Race engine is rumoured to give a humongous 15-20 BHP extra (15-20km/hr last race). I don't know with that & half a second gap (in qualifying & after he overtook Max), how did Hamilton manage to trail Verstappen for so long.

Lewis was trying to keep his tires alive, trying to ensure he didn't get his tires sliced, or aero components knocked off his car!

[Tvetovnato]

Mercedes 1-2, Max has a chance for P2 here. No chance @ Jeddah which will be a mauling. Hamilton's new 2500km 4 Race engine is rumoured to give a humongous 15-20 BHP extra (15-20km/hr last race). I don't know with that & half a second gap (in qualifying & after he overtook Max), how did Hamilton manage to trail Verstappen for so long.

It took an incredible drive from Max & an average from Lewis to keep a car with that kind of straightline speed & overall speed behind. The only positive thing for RB is Merc engine degradation. It is a 4 race engine dialed super up & will not be anwhere fast in Abu Dhabi as it is in Brazil, so there's a chance there.

P2 & P3 is realistically best possible scenario for RB. Mercedes & Hamilton have to seriously screw up to lose this championship !

Two reasons. The first being that Max drove Lewis illegally off track to start with quite early in the second stint. Should have been settled already there. Second, the RB was no slouch in S2. The Merc was at best on par there, and losing in the dirty air.

This will swing again I’m sure. Last time people were certain it was over for Max was after fp1 in Austin, and we know what happened in that race and in Mexico. With this being a new track, anything can happen. The key will be to get a good setup and a good start in the race as usual.

[godlameroso]

At corner speeds above 140kmh the RB16B is untouchable. Losail has many such proper corners, you gain so much on not understeering on entry because it lets you use less steering lock on exit, this leads to less wheelspin and more rear tire preservation. The downforce advantage on the RBR means the rear axle isn't going to wear much faster than the front. Furthermore it looks like the hardest tires will be on offer. From what I can see the medium C2 can probably do 20 laps with a decrease in appreciable performance around lap 16. The hard can likely go close to half race distance but won't be nice to drive on, maybe a little too hard.

It's likely to be another Barcelona type scenario, if Verstappen wants to try the one stop he should use the hard tire, because the medium just won't make it. At 57 laps, 17, 20, 20 will be the standard strategy as the undercut is effective if timed properly.

RB work better with softer Pirelli tyres while Mercedes does better with the harder ones IMO so I dunno how this helps RB !

Didn't stop Verstappen from winning in Zandvoort, the RB16B is simply faster than Mercedes around the high downforce corners. Losail is not guaranteed for Mercedes.

[dans79]

Didn't stop Verstappen from winning in Zandvoort, the RB16B is simply faster than Mercedes around the high downforce corners. Losail is not guaranteed for Mercedes.

Zandvoort & Losail are drastically different tracks.

Zandvoort has a lot of undulation and camber changes, that the Merc would not like because of its stiffer suspension and longer wheelbase. Losail on the other hand is table top flat for all intensive purposes, so a set-up that was fast at Zandvoort is not guaranteed to be just as good at Losail.

[TimW]

I'm putting my money on Mercedes for the coming races. Since the summer break Red Bull was faster in three races, but two of them, Zandvoort and COTA, Mercedes had serious setup problems (turn 4 in Zandvoort and the bumps in COTA). Only in Mexico.Red Bull had the intrinsically faster car. So with two unknowns in the upcoming circuits, my best guess is Mercedes.

Edit: and with their engine penalties all taken now

[godlameroso]

Definitely going to be a race decided by which team can nail the setup for both the race and qualifying

I'll give you a head start. Smooth track means you can run low, and stiff. Long radius corners and long corner entries means you want that front wing close to the ground, and you want it to stay there on the exits to keep it working. That means generally stiff rear, on compression and roll.

[AeroDynamic]

Whoever wins Qatar. Will be the final favourite for the championship.

[ringo]

If lewis wins and max in p2 he still trails maz by 7 points or even 6.
Lewis to me is still an outside chance.
Mercedes need a 1-2.
Bottas also need a pep talk. In Brazil he jumped out of the way in turn 1 for Max.
Toto needs to tell Bottas that next time do not move out of the way.. he has more to lose. Let him crash you if that's what he wants.
With Bottas thinking like this he can do the best job of stopping Max.

[AeroDynamic]

If lewis wins and max in p2 he still trails maz by 7 points or even 6.
Lewis to me is still an outside chance.
Mercedes need a 1-2.
Bottas also need a pep talk. In Brazil he jumped out of the way in turn 1 for Max.
Toto needs to tell Bottas that next time do not move out of the way.. he has more to lose. Let him crash you if that's what he wants.
With Bottas thinking like this he can do the best job of stopping Max.

I agree, but for me, if Mercedes win Qatar on merit, I struggle to imagine red bull winning Jeddah. It would be amazing if Lewis and max went to Abu Dhabi on equal points.

If red bull win Qatar, I think it’s just a case of turning the screw for them, from there on.

It’s still F1 and anything can happen in the last races. But bar surprises, I think if either scenario plays out, it will be very foreboding for the final chapters.

I had a thought earlier today.. I doubt anyone would agree with me but I’ll share it anyway;

If Jeddah is cancelled, instead of doing two races at Abu Dhabi, I think they should hold the final round in Bahrain. There’s something about this championship coming ‘full circle’ in returning to the circuit of the first round as a decider. To show case how far the two cars have come since the first round. I don’t know, just would feel poetic to me.

[SiLo]

At corner speeds above 140kmh the RB16B is untouchable. Losail has many such proper corners, you gain so much on not understeering on entry because it lets you use less steering lock on exit, this leads to less wheelspin and more rear tire preservation. The downforce advantage on the RBR means the rear axle isn't going to wear much faster than the front. Furthermore it looks like the hardest tires will be on offer. From what I can see the medium C2 can probably do 20 laps with a decrease in appreciable performance around lap 16. The hard can likely go close to half race distance but won't be nice to drive on, maybe a little too hard.

It's likely to be another Barcelona type scenario, if Verstappen wants to try the one stop he should use the hard tire, because the medium just won't make it. At 57 laps, 17, 20, 20 will be the standard strategy as the undercut is effective if timed properly.

Can you tell me where you get your tyre info from please?

Not sure where you got the idea that RB are faster in corners over 140kph, but so far I haven’t seen anything that supports that argument. In fact at high downforce high speed tracks such as Hungary, Barcelona, Portimao and Turkey, Mercedes looked superior. The only outlier was Zandvoort, which has a higher amount of slow corners.

Lo sail looks very much like a good track for Mercedes.