2022 pecking order speculation

[LM10]

Despite the classic f1technical downvote (above), here’s a recent article from therace that discusses exactly this point:

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hug ... -mercedes/

Shows how innovative the SF70H was. It really was a masterpiece, like I told above. Pity Ferrari lost on PU as well as strategical and driver-error side.

[raymondu999]

what the point of making speculations about 2022 now 2021 is not yet settled

Fun! not facts. Lol

[ferrarifire]

True...ferrari has been smart with the aero developement in the recent years ..most of the expert predicted 2021 going to be another write off year for ferrari and expected them to be around p4 to p6..but they have brought very innovative aero solution without spending tokens( front structure redesign and real axile).
2022 could be a game changer for ferrari and don't forget they have good experience in developing ground effect cars in the past era

Despite the classic f1technical downvote (above), here’s a recent article from therace that discusses exactly this point:

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hug ... -mercedes/

Shows how innovative the SF70H was. It really was a masterpiece, like I told above. Pity Ferrari lost on PU as well as strategical and driver-error side.

[Stu]

Teams that appear to have used 2021 as a holding year with very few upgrades (Haas, Alfa, Williams, Aston, maybe Ferrari(??)), have obviously been concentrating on their 2022 cars. Also expect the two Ferrari customer teams to make a step when they get the latest power store. McLaren have been fully 2022 since the summer break as well.
Mercedes seem to be in a similar position. RedBull have appeared to have been developing the RB16B right to the end.

With how the aero regs are defined there is unlikely to be a magic bullet there, but potentially a lot of detail design and experiment could gain performance (unless they ‘get lucky’ this year’s front-runners) will need to careful as playing catch-up is very limited due to the tunnel/CFD runs that are allowed.

I’m hoping for a couple of surprises!

[NL_Fer]

If the budget cap, new aero and engine freeze will do what they were supposed to, we could see a 2-tier field next year. Ferrari, McLaren and Renault focussed on 2022 early and should all be competing with Mercedes and Redbull. They all have excellent drivers and they will be all competitive like 2010 and 2012.

Also the smaller teams threw everything at 2022. Ferrari-powered teams would benefit the new powerunit, Alpha Tauri would can take advantage of the momentum Redbull and Honda has. Williams is going upwards sinds the family left and Aston Martin has always been capable of producing a car exceeding their budget.

So yeah, cannot predict a pecking order, Just a split in p1-5 vs p6-10 teams.

[McL-H]

I don’t know what team will be on top this season, but I have a feeling it won’t be Mercedes or Red Bull. If I had to place my bet, I’d pick Ferrari, maybe McLaren.

[Ryar]

There is a potential possibility of Ferrari making good use of their partnership with Haas. 2022 Haas car, if I understand correctly, is also being built at Maranello as part of the deeper customer deal, enabling a 2017 like outcome. Alpha Tauri is also following similar model by using Red Bull partnership ownership. To cut costs of development, RB and AT are going to use the same infrastructure. It's going to give good strategic advantage to these teams.

[LM10]

I think some people thinking that Mercedes and RedBull will be the teams to beat just because they were recently, might be surprised next year.

It will be the biggest aero changes F1 has seen in the last 40 years or so, Newey told. It will all come down to who will have interpreted the rules best and have found possible loop holes. Newey expects the field to be much less tight contrary to what the general expectation seems to be.

Mercedes and RedBull have had a title fight and invested more than other teams. Mercedes less than RedBull, but the latter even brought upgrades until the end of the season. On top of that both have had least CFD and wind tunnel time this season and will also have less time next season.

As for Ferrari, Binotto has told even before the 2021 season started that they would focus on 2022 and anything they would bring or do in-season would primarily be for 2022 purposes.
No team has done as many tyre tests as Ferrari and no team has gone as flat out in terms of PU development as Ferrari, it looks like. Their simulator is brand new and therefore features innovations others don’t have. Also, if the reports are to be believed, Ferrari will be the only team to use the second generation of E10 thanks to Shell - whatever advantages they might have from that, I don’t know.
Combining all these factors, I have the feeling (and hope) that Ferrari won’t have a bad start, to say the least.

[El Scorchio]

I think some people thinking that Mercedes and RedBull will be the teams to beat just because they were recently, might be surprised next year.

It will be the biggest aero changes F1 has seen in the last 40 years or so, Newey told. It will all come down to who will have interpreted the rules best and have found possible loop holes. Newey expects the field to be much less tight contrary to what the general expectation seems to be.

Mercedes and RedBull have had a title fight and invested more than other teams. Mercedes less than RedBull, but the latter even brought upgrades until the end of the season. On top of that both have had leas CFD and wind tunnel time this season and will also have less time next season.

As for Ferrari, Binotto has told even before the 2021 season started that they would focus on 2022 and anything they would bring or do in-season would primarily be for 2022 purposes.
No team has done as many tyre tests as Ferrari and no team has gone as flat out in terms of PU development as Ferrari, it looks like. Their simulator is brand new and therefore features innovations others don’t have. Also, if the reports are to be believed, Ferrari will be the only team to use the second generation of E10 thanks to Shell - whatever advantages they might have from that, I don’t know.
Combining all these factors, I have the feeling (and hope) that Ferrari won’t have a bad start, to say the least.

Completely agree. You cannot rule out anyone being fastest at the start of the season. Think 2009.

However, I think if they aren’t there at first unless they have made a major mis step, then history tells us MB or RBR will join the party sooner rather than later. Look at how MB finished the season from where they were at the start, and where they were after Austria. Very positive steps from Ferrari as well. McLaren and Alpine feel like huge unknowns to me. They could be right up there or they could be way behind the curve at first.

Out of all the teams, I’d love for Williams to have found something that no-one else has seen.

What I’m also really interested in is how the ‘junior’ teams are going to be used. Will RBR be trialling different philosophies on the AT cars and using it all for research into the works team? Same with Ferrari and Alfa. I wonder if MB now realise they need that sort of relationship with Aston or Williams to keep themselves from a massive testing and learning disadvantage?

[mclaren111]

Red Bull lost Dan Fallows and might have an effect...

I'm hoping Mclaren makes it big...

[Ryar]

Red Bull lost Dan Fallows and might have an effect...

I'm hoping Mclaren makes it big...

Director level leaders barely make an impact on the low level designs. What matters is the fundamental philosophy and the design ideas themselves, which come from design architects and engineers running POCs. Any team that has an intelligent and creative core design team and a strong integration process of various parts of the car, builds high performing cars. Senior leaders add a bit of perspective to things, nothing more.

As for Dan Fallows, no doubt he probably has been a good fit in the scheme of things, but then, Peter Prodromou leaving didn't affect them much. Newey is their key guy and as long as he is around, he will act as a central cog.

[hollus]

<Moved as there was already a thread for it.>

It doesn't look like we have a thread for this yet... so here's my wild guess, what do other people think the pecking order will be?

1. Merc
2. McLaren
3. Ferrari
4. Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6. Red Bull
7. AT
8. Williams
9. Alpha
10. Haas

My reasoning here is that the Merc PU is potentially the most powerful, and the more restrictive car design will mean the PU has a bigger impact in terms of overall performance, giving the Merc powered teams an advantage. Ferrari also appear to have made some improvements to their PU, and have also been able to focus on 2022 a little more like McLaren because they haven't been caught up in a championship battle. Merc appear to have sacrificed 2021 somewhat (didn't spend tokens) to remain focused on 2022, whereas Red Bull appear to have gone "all in" on 2021, which could hurt them for next season.

Anyway, it's all a complete guess of course, and I'm sure I'll be completely wrong... So bearing that in mind, perhaps we should start early and congratulate Mick Schumacher the 2022 WDC!

[the EDGE]

Until testing, picking the top team is going to be a bit of a lottery, so much changes next year there is huge scope for teams to get things right, or wrong

Merc & Redbull have to remain favourites, their teams are at the top of their game and by a big margin, their only weakness is they have been focused on fighting for the championship, so could be behind the curve, but I doubt they have lost site of 22

McLaren & Ferrari have both bounced back strongly. Ferrari need to get on top of their PU and they will be fighting at the top again, while McLaren don’t have that worry as I think Merc will fully support them in that respect again this year, they need other teams in the mix with RB to take points from them again.

AM have made some great signings and will also have Merc support, but i think with all that they have going on, 22 is probably too soon for them to be top, they need time to gel

Alpine have made some big changes, and claimed to have been concentrating on the new regs for a very long time, only time will tell, but I suspect others will do better, for now

AT have had some very good results this year, and the Honda PU is certainly performing well, they have every chance of being the dark horse (but we’ve herd that many times before), still… what are the chances of them (being allowed to) beating RB?

Alpha, William, Haas, unlikely to make the big leap just now

[Spoutnik]

Until testing, picking the top team is going to be a bit of a lottery, so much changes next year there is huge scope for teams to get things right, or wrong

Merc & Redbull have to remain favourites, their teams are at the top of their game and by a big margin, their only weakness is they have been focused on fighting for the championship, so could be behind the curve, but I doubt they have lost site of 22

McLaren & Ferrari have both bounced back strongly. Ferrari need to get on top of their PU and they will be fighting at the top again, while McLaren don’t have that worry as I think Merc will fully support them in that respect again this year, they need other teams in the mix with RB to take points from them again.

AM have made some great signings and will also have Merc support, but i think with all that they have going on, 22 is probably too soon for them to be top, they need time to gel

Alpine have made some big changes, and claimed to have been concentrating on the new regs for a very long time, only time will tell, but I suspect others will do better, for now

AT have had some very good results this year, and the Honda PU is certainly performing well, they have every chance of being the dark horse (but we’ve herd that many times before), still… what are the chances of them (being allowed to) beating RB?

Alpha, William, Haas, unlikely to make the big leap just now

The issue with Alpine is even if they got it right on the chassis/aero side their PU will let them down and they'll end up like Ferrari in 2017 imo, and I'm saying that as a french !
Regarding other teams it's difficult to know ofc but I have the feeling that Ferrari got a very good pair of driver to develop a top car for next year, Sainz seems to be a fine tuner. Merc and Red Bull idk but they'll catch up anyway I'm not to worried for them even if one of these could have a "Ferrari 2005" season.
I think Alfa Romeo with Bottas and the new Ferrari PU will be the 2022 Alpha Tauri.

[Just_a_fan]

I think Alfa Romeo with Bottas and the new Ferrari PU will be the 2022 Alpha Tauri.

I can see Bottas enjoying being out of the limelight and not being constantly compared to Hamilton. I think he'll put in some "oh, that was a good drive" moments because he'll be back enjoying himself again. No more "to whom it may concern" stuff, and more of the fun stuff.